Tuesday, May 11, 2010

ChartsEdge BP map reminder, plus some market comments May 11

Folks, remember that the ChartsEdge beta particle based (trader mood) map for today is within Mike Korell's new full-week map. That's the one you can find the link for in my post Monday morning (see below, just under the euro post I did last night). It indicates a downslope today which may being an EOD (end of day) low underneath Monday's low. Since it also points lower into Thursday, swing players might want to play it defensively into Thursday. Just remember it also shows a steep curve up from Thursday into Friday with an end-of-week high over Monday's high. Of course no guarantees these will produce absolute price levels accordingly .... It's just how this week looks on that map.

Let's talk gold ... I pointed out a week or so ago as it broke out above its range trade. It did a little pullback, no surprise, just a consolidation really. And pushing up again. We don't have to think whether gold is going up against the dollar, or the euro, or whatever. It's going up on general principles due to uncertainty and fear! Of course the potential for currency inflation only helps! And don't forget that at times when currencies are in a "race to the bottom", gold will shine against all of them. Cyclically, our plan was to buy a low in gold before May. Well it's May now! Gold never hit a low spelling too much weakness; wherever you bought it, the general thinking is to hold on and wait. While I may not have one specific projection for gold's trajectory, the overall path looks positive for a good while to come.

I've talked about the agricultural commodities and buying a spring low. DAG as a simple ETF is one way to participate if you aren't reading commodities contracts or futures. Of course we should be on guard if it simply loses support of the recent lows instead. But spring is over and we want to see if we in face get a good summer rally on a simple long swing position. That's why I'll add the "KI$$" label to the post.

Same goes for UNG and natural gas. $NATGAS has been trying for a good swing low in order to make a new swing up. So it's another item we want to play accordingly for a nice swing long position.

So these are current thoughts about non-equities markets we can be working with. As for equities, we might be working with the first stages of a new wave up, but it deserves respect just in case it makes a double bottom (with a higher low or lower low) before it's really ready to fly. Still, with May 21 opex out there, it's tempting to think options will expire with the indices well over last week's lows. And don't forget to take a look at Terry Laundry's daily updates each morning too... As always - let's be careful out there. And happy market navigating!

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