Stock market technical damage may take time to repair in resuming bullish path

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices are under their 50-day moving averages, and the Dow Transports are above their 50 but under their 20-day moving average; all with their 20-DMA's bending down toward their 50-DMA's. While the euro hasn't yet proven that it won't plumb new lows on this cycle down, and gold is challenging toward new highs. And the yen has once again poked over that pivot at 111.49 $XJY/FXY, so may yet regain a path to new all-time highs. What, me worried?! LOL! Below are technical charts showing the stock market is oversold and yet there's enough technical damage that it should take time for the market to recuperate.

The TRIN is so high that many of its moving averages on my chart of it (at bottom, below) are well over the 1.20 level that normally shouts "oversold". But the bullish percent for the S&P 500 ($BPSPX) chart dropped precipitously under its moving averages, as did the percent of NYSE stocks above their 200-day MA's (middle chart below). The CCI cycle indicators suggest these should start coming around. But the damage represented by these drops on these charts supports the ideas we've been discussing that traders should be prepared for chop and for a re-test of last week's lows at some point. We'll still look for a tradable snap or bounce up, probably after whatever weakness we may get into Thursday (then up into opex 5/21 will be nice).

It may be into June before we know whether the markets make new lows or just a retest double bottom for a rise into August. Of course we'll have to be on guard when the $BPSPX and $NYA200R percentages come back to retest broken moving averages - that may signal some more rough patches when they occur.