Thursday, June 3, 2010

Hey buddy, it's a Bradley turn date! - but doesn't guarantee how markets react to 200-day moving average

Andre Gratian has put out a reminder that today is a Bradley turn date. That's a great reminder, even though we cannot promise it means anything other than be careful! Some of the Bradley dates work out more significantly than others. So it isn't my favorite forecasting tool, even though it's interesting. I've written and posted on the Bradley model before (most recently on February 24 - use the "Cycles on Bradley model" label). Today, and June 9, are both "turn dates". But it can be a high or low! And furthermore, it's a time window within a few days, so we can't get fixated on the date. And even more: let's say it's gonna be a high on June 9. It doesn't have to be a higher high! Can, but doesn't need to be. The SPX is acting like it could be - but no guarantees.

As I posted earlier today, we already see big battles going on around the 200-day moving average in stock markets. And we also already know that the levels around SPX 1060, 1090, and 1103 are important right now. So those already give reasons to be cautious.

Look at what Zimmel's chart of the Bradley model shows the rest of the year - fits with many Elliott Wave ideas, but directly contradicts Terry Laundry's T Theory, Ray Merriman's stated cycles view for equities in 2010, and probably others. Which will be right? Honestly I don't know. All I can do is remember that last year's Bradley chart by Zimmel had some inversions (highs that turned out to be lows), and factor it in with everything else.

So - I recommend being aware of the Bradley model's TURN DATES, and be flexible in your approach for a possible significant turn coming right up. And stay tuned for clues on which way the turn will point!

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