Friday, August 20, 2010

ChartsEdge forecast commentary for 8/20

Be aware that there are reasons to expect a positive movement next week and into the end of the month the following Tuesday. Based partly on ChartsEdge and also on Terry Laundry's T Theory (Tm); and there's the usual new month, new money effect that would incent many to try buys from the right low. (PS did you notice the Dow was down a Fibonacci 144 yesterday?) We must remember that $SPX 1060 is one of our biggest numbers so maybe it'll have an effect even if only for some trading days.

Thanks to Mile Korell, from his webpage at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/

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ChartsEdge Forecast Commentary

Posted: August 20th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

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Our philosophy is to approach financial markets with unbiased charting for unbiased trading. Our attitude is "No Bull - No Bear - No Bias" (tm). You'll find market and charts commentary here. News feeds by topic are below ... browse our posts by label, and check other sites of interest (listed below).

KI$$ (tm)* S&P 500 index-tracking position:
Cash or caution; should remain above 1274/1296 to support bullish theory. Needs to continue making higher lows on daily charts as well. Caution until past 1360, and also into autumn.. ALERT: bearish setup seems to be confirming - sell rallies (go to cash) or hedge, unless SPX makes 1360 support. Lower lows may be in the weeks ahead.

Oil (USO, etc.) - Await confirmation that low is in.

Natural gas (UNG, etc.) Possible cycle low completed, but KI$$ traders should most likely avoid this given vulnerability to being a longer term bear market.

Gold & Silver: Possible low carved 6/4-8/12; cautiously long assuming that's important support. If this low doesn't hold, then 1392 remains possible. If for some reason 1392 didn't hold then it could fall toward 1100-1200 so respect the levels. If this low holds then may well start heading toward new highs.

US Treasury Bonds: holding up surprisingly well and may continue as reserve/quality if stock markets break down.

*KI$$ is Ariel's trademarked and proprietary portfolio position indicator, primarily for stock-market tracking accounts. This will be updated to the greatest extent reasonably possible. Also be sure to follow posts about specific asset classes, updated from time to time. However, guarantees cannot be provided; see site's disclaimers and take responsibility for your own investments.

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Other Sites of Interest:

Here are other sites of interest for good analysis, reference and input. The order of the sites listed isn't necessarily to indicate priority, of course:

1. Watershed research on market forecasting from Chartsedge (including very neat "maps" for intraday), by Mike Korell: Weekly cycle charts at Chartsedge, and daily (intraday) charts posted periodically at Chartsedge Daily Market Maps. (For access to daily maps when posted overnight, you'll need the reasonably-priced ChartsEdge subscription.)

2. Andre Gratian's market analysis which he puts forward at SafeHaven.com, and his website is http://www.marketurningpoints.com/.

3. Objective Elliott Wave as presented by Anthony Caldaro at his the Elliott Wave Lives On site (his public charts are available from the charts links he provides there).

4. Cycles work by Jim Curry at CycleWave - Market Turns. There's also another cycles analyst I refer to often, Tim Wood at his Cycles News & Views service. Each of these experts has a very good track record and a remarkable amount of work, explanation and attention to detail. In addition, Tim also comments on Kondratieff waves and Dow Theory, and addressses equities markets, bonds, gold, currencies, commodities and more.

5. John Hampson's modeling at http://amalgamator.co.uk, based on geomagnetics, the Bradley siderograph and full moon/new moon cycles, also looking at gold, VIX and other indicators for perspective.

6. Financial astrology and sociological-economic commentary by Raymond Merriman at mmacycles.com, including free weekly comments at Merriman Market Analyst Weekly Comments.

7. Bill Luby's VIX and More blogspot. Also VIX, put/call (options) and sentiment commentary by Todd Salamone and others, including Bernie Schaeffer himself of course, at Schaeffer's Research site. Sentiment surveys by the ISE (the ISEE charts and data, accessible for equities/indices/ETFs), SentimenTrader, and the TickerSense sentiment poll at TickerSense.

8. Weekly COT (commitments of traders) reports - sadly, they only come out each Friday afternoon reporting on COT positions as of the preceding Tuesday, so always a bit dated: COT (Commitments of Traders). There's also COTS Timer blogspot. And check out the Option Pain CBOE (Max-Pain) Calculator from OptionPain.com.

9. Excellent trading education, training and psychology at Brett Steenbarger's TraderFeed blogspot. Weekly economic calendar as presented by MarketWatch; and FXStreet.com's daily updated economic calendar covering the U.S. and other countries.

10. New - news and insight at Jesse's Café Américain. Articles and interviews posted at GreenLightAdvisor; "The Macro View" at Seeking Alpha; Markets news, insights and perspectives at Minyanville News & Views; a blogs review at 4Best4Worst Blogs; anything at Financial Ninja; posts at Bespoke Investment Group; quick wit along with some wisdom and insights: Crossing Wall Street; and financial news analysis from the experts at Naked Capitalism.

11. Terry Laundry's T Theory work at his T Theory website. There are also other sites that have some good technical analysis like Shanky's TechBlog; technical analysis by Kenny at Kenny's Technical Analysis Blog; trendline analysis at http://xtrends.blogspot.com/; and Carl Swenlin's work at DecisionPoint.com.

12. PTV-Investing Blog where Andy Askey uses Gann analysis and price/time overbought/oversold measures, plus volume to assess market strength. Also keep an eye on Elliott Wave analysis at AllAllan's blogspot, and Daneric's Elliott Waves blogspot too. You might check out Carl Futia's blogspot, and Carolan website with "solunar" calendar and more. Drop in at Charts and Coffee too, for a range of market charts. May start checking out The Chart Pattern Trader blogspot ...

13. Charting you can do at Stockcharts (and if you're doing intra-day trading you should consider their subscription package that includes intraday real-time data) ... don't overlook their very good free "Chart School" including how to use indicators, at Stockcharts Chart School.

14. My other blogspot "Tao of Trading" with commentaries about psychology and similar aspects of trading, at Tao of Trading.
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15. An arts blogspot, Christa's Fine Art Paintings, a gallery of artwork she painted through the decades.

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Friday, August 20, 2010