Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Stock market risk rising as the dollar renews signs of strength

Looking across the markets I see signs consistent with the idea of a significant swing high in August followed by more weakness. I was only able to pull a chart of the S&P 500 index ($SPX), below - you can see it's below the 200-day moving average and challenged by other moving averages on weak indicators. The dollar is poised to print a bullish reversal pattern if/when it rises from a swing low over the next couple of days or so (bullish for the dollar suggests bearish for equities and almost everything else). The euro is poised to do the same in reverse (bearish for the euro if it follows through on this). Oil looks poised to print a bearish continuation move lower, as is gasoline (UGA) which has already broken a new swing low. Gold looks weak in this picture but read Andre Gratian's gold update with GLD (posted here recently below) for details.

Therefore I believe that today is part of a countertrend move in many markets that will only last another day or so before resuming the strong movements we saw over the preceding five trading days. If the bulls are lucky that resumption would only last another five or so trading days. If the bears are lucky then it would indeed last and languish into October. So it's time for all my readers to be alert, look sharp, and let's be on our toes to trade in the right direction as the next several trading days unfold. Opex is one game, but we're talking about the bigger swing view picture that swing traders, KI$$ traders and position investors want to make sure to be on the right side of, to avoid losses (and hopefully pocket gains).

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