Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Buyers beware - Euro optimism pointing right into heavy resistance

The euro is pointing right up to huge resistance at $140 in $XEU (close to the ETF also, $FXE). That resistance comes not only from moving averages and the upper Bollinger Band (see charts below), but also $140 is the lower shelf of a multi-month range back when it oscillates around $144. Aahhh, 144 - what a great Fibonacci number. And I think 147 might be a "Lucas number" but admit I'm not familiar with those. $147 was about the top of that oscillating quasi-triangle (triangle trap), $140 the bottom, and $143.50 or $144 in the middle.

So $143.50 (possibly $144 but really $143.50) really is about as far as the euro can go, to retest that prior range. If $XEU exceeds $143.50 then it'll turn much more bullish. But under $140, not to mention $143.50, the euro is really bearish and has price targets down to $116 or $112. I like $112 because it can be a huge C=A level, where the drop will equal the amount of the prior drop that initiated the trixngular oscillation. As well as being a 61.8% retracement level.

So we'll see! $116 is the objective marked on the P&F chart, at bottom ( default settings). If the euro bulls can negate all this by pushing it above $140, then $143.50/144, we'll go bullish too. Otherwise, even aside from the concerning fundamentals, the charts are saying that the euro's upside is extremely small compared to its likely downside.

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