Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Crude oil's drop might be mere pullback but bulls shouldn't be complacent

Crude oil dropped smartly away from the lower of my two projections ($95, and $103, measuring in $WTIC). One theory can be that it's a simple wave B or 2 pullback before going higher again. If that's true, then it could even go to $85 (50% pullback to $75). In that case it can still go up to $103, or an even higher target around $113. I see the P&F chart had identified $114, even! If crude oil is in the overall bearish mode that I suspect, then it could get to $103 (maybe not $113) before the next wave lower than $75.

The bullish scenario is that crude oil has left it's low behind at $75 and won't revisit that. If that's true, then it should be making a big third-wave up move turning all indicators bullish, even on the monthly chart. Hasn't happened yet ...

Ready for the Big Bear scenario? Then recall that I discovered and pointed out that it's lower peak around $115 was a 70.7% retrace to the prior "all-time" peak. That's a classic wave-two retrace. It could suggest that crude oil has subsequently made a wave 1 down, and wave 2 up either finished or some more to go (gotta get past $95). With the next big move being a huge terrible "wave 3 of 3" drop heading under $35. Scary, huh?! Because oil's use and therefore price waves go back hundreds of years - it's theoretically possible. Don't call me crazy yet ... Let's just see ...!

Meantime we can see on the daily it pull back from moving average resistance (similar on weekly). On the monthly, it backtested a blue uptrend channel line it fell under on the way to $75. If it's going to avoid the Big Bear - at least for now - it'll have to get past $95. Otherwise, I'm frankly leaning toward the idea that buying/holding it isn't such a great idea...!

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