If you've been following my oil charts and related Fibonacci levels for crude oil, you know that right now, the $100 (up to $103) level in $WTIC is acting as a bull vs. bear line. Failing to get above it leaves open the spectre of a bear market in crude oil, based on having traced a Fibonacci .707 earlier this year when it hit almost $115, and now another .707 retrace (this time, back toward the almost-$115) when it tagged $103.
The $100 level is the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace back to that almost-$115 level in $WTIC, and also represends the pivot level around which it gyrated in a range earlier this year, before the big drop to $75. If $100 is the resistance level that turns crude oil back down again, then it can test even lower; say, around $65, and potentially lower over time. It could tag $65 and remain bullish for the longer term, since that would be about the 61.8% retrace to the 2009 low (i.e., a second-wave pullback). Of course, dropping to $65 would be perceived as bearish in the meantime.
That type of bearishness in crude oil would fit in with the deflationary ideas about long-term Kondratieff "winter" trough conditions during the few years ahead. I'm not going to make this a theoretical post about that, however. I'll just point out that on my monthly chart, below, you can see that price touched back up to a big channel midline, and the indicators are similarly hovering in tug-o'-war middle areas.
This is why, based on the daily and monthly chart views - I cannot consider crude oil to be bullish unless and until it can rise above these resistance levels. Right now, that means $100 in $WTIC.