Thursday, December 15, 2011
Short U.S. Treasury bond bubble - now, or just soon? Charts views
It's also possible that TLT is already bearish (and TBT bullish) because traders who see what's happening are already beginning to exit the long side, even while buyers of U.S. bonds continue to want them as alternatives to other securities perceived as increasingly riskier. So U.S. Treasury bonds could actually top out later than the ETF does.
Picking a top can be just as dicey as picking a bottom (stinky!!). But the Fibonacci projection for $USB to $150 lends support to the P&F projection. So if taking any action now, remain nimble enough to take short-term profits and allow for another run up over the next several weeks. But if and when bonds hit higher into January - especially on $USB tagging $150 - consider it to be like ringing the bell on the bond bubble.
NOTE: as always, the information and statements here are commentary only, and should not be construed to be financial advice. Consult your own financial advisors before making or changing any investments.