Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Gold testing underneath resistance - believe it or not: chart views

Gold should be in a bullish pattern due to cycles and fundamentals. However, it's actually still under important resistance right now, so the KI$$ way to play it is to pare off longs and/or add hedges/protection, or maybe even cash out if feasible. Then wait to see if it can get above resistance. Let's take a look:

The daily chart of $GOLD I've annotated to show that it pushed over an important trendline - yaay! But is both backtesting a prior support uptrend line it had broken under, and also is just under the lows of the most recent monthly highs from late 2011. This means both trendline and price resistance.

The indicators are strong, so that's good. But be aware that some traders may try selling or shorting from this resistance area. There may even be some who are fundamentally bullish, but think it's ready for a wave-2 pullback, or even deeper correction or consolidation before heading higher again.

On my weekly chart, below, you can see that price almost touched a Fibonacci .382 retracement level back to prior swing lows. Maybe price needs to actually touch that (or perhaps even work on a 50% retracement level), as marked on my chart - perhaps $1512, or even down to the $1400's. Personally, I think it might only provide a consolidating pullback to a higher low before resuming its path upward. But it will be prudent to watch this resistance area very carefully for clues.

One final note: if gold indeed does drop again, whether to a higher or lower low, it is possible that it might trace a "Larusso" or "Wolfe" wave pattern. I'm more familiar with Elliott Wave, in which case the pattern might be deemed an ABC flat (completed), a zigzag X (completed), and then perhaps another zigzag down to complete the correction. First we'll have to see what occurs from this resistance area, i.e., underneath the $1760's.

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