Friday, February 3, 2012

Not "all the same market" - is the divergence bearish?

Divergence has appeared between the stock markets which continued up, and the trio of the euro, crude oil, and gold/silver which have fallen back. There's an argument this is bearish, although these markets don't necessarily need to travel as "all the same market". Notice that oil's been dropping from its efforts to get over $101/103, and today the euro, gold and silver retreated. At minimum, it means the "risk on" assets aren't traveling at the same pace right now.

Below I'll show sentiment and technical indicators painting the picture that the overbought stock market, while not turning yet, is ripe for a reversal even if only temporary. First, I'd like to point readers to the work of MIG Bank posted at Safe Haven. I just saw it tonight whilst browsing with my iPhone, which I used to snap a quick pic of two of their charts (euro and dollar), hopefully making my readers want to go to "Daily Technical Report - MIG Bank" at to see and keep up with their good work. They are tracking current bearish charts of euro, gold & silver in a manner very suitable for KI$$ swing traders. And here's that quick pic of their euro & dollar charts:

You may also want to look again at my recent posts about the dollar, oil, and gold; including U.S. Dollar and VIX testing support, even if temporary: charts view.

Next are charts of the SPX and Dow Industrials. The SPX pushed up past 1333 finally but unlike $INDU remains well under its 2011 highs - that divergence is bearish unless resolved upwardly:

Sentiment measured by the equity-only put-call ratio, $CPCE, is hot. It's in sell-signal territory, and with a somewhat higher low that can be a more meaningful signal. It's just one part of the puzzle, but does contribute:

Last here's the bullish percent for SPX, showing what percent of the SPX index stocks sport bullish P&F targets. At above 80% it's confirming overbought. But until it drops under 80%, and with the StochRSI still above the high line, it's only a condition, not an actual sell signal - yet. So we're closer than we've been to date and will remain vigilant:

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