Saturday, July 28, 2012

Thoughts on a small pullback before SPX moves higher in early August 2012

There appear to be various indications that we could have a small pullback before the stock market moves higher. Such a pullback might last for only one day, so be aware of that. The FOMC is coming up next week, and normally we would also expect the new months, new money effect to produce higher prices in the later part of the week, August 1-3. At this point, be prepared for the possibility of a dip on Monday, and then be alert for whether Thursday, August 2 will be a high or low. A pullback may only retest SPX 1350's to 1360. Be sure to read Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave weekend update at He mentions the importance of SPX 1344 in case there's an overbought pullback. He also addresses bonds, currencies, commodities, and other countries' indices.

A potential wildcard in all this is that today, July 28, is a Bradley turn date. I'm told that the Bradley turn dates have been having better accuracy this year. Normally, I don't put much stock in them, and even today we cannot be certain whether this is producing a high right now, or will it simply give us a pullback before a further move up. Just something to keep in mind with all else.

One concerning note is that the McClellan Oscillator didn't make a higher high than it did early July, which looks like a non- confirmation so far. It's early yet, so just another reason to consider a pullback. It'll become more concerning if the indices advance higher without higher highs in the oscillator. It's the one chart I wanted to include with this post (other charts I already posted last night via Twitter) but having technical difficulty click on the Twitter pic link to see it: . The Summation Index is also rolling over, which supports the concerns that the longer term might not be so good either. There's a similar point about the VIX, it made a higher low (not a lower low) so that's a bearish divergence. Also there's a short- term trading signal on VIX that bought Thursday and closes out Monday. Again just something to consider for the weeks ahead. It's also noteworthy that the Dow Industrials $DJI $INDU are stronger, while the Nasdaq 100 $NDX and Russell 2000 $RUT are weaker.

Assuming we pullback a day or so, before we move higher, how high? There seem to be various reasons to expect the SPX to rise above 1400 again.** After that, it's a matter of whether this really is a bull market that will carry on to new higher highs, or at least rise above 1500 again. Or, will the market roll over again and retest the June 4 lows about 1260's to 1280, or go even lower. Personally, I think it can go either way. That's why I think it is increasingly important to be flexible, and to pay attention to timing since the timing of a low or high - rather than absolute price - can be the way to decide whether to hold or fold, and when to re-enter.
**NOTE - I just watched and do recommend Chris Ciovacco's charts analysis video at covering the SPX, equities in general such as other countries and financials, the VIX, internals and breadth, and DeMark indicators status & projections. I'm impressed by the quality and clarity of his analysis; so I highly recommend watching it. Doesn't change my thinking but he does a great job of showing why this market is more bullish than many realize - if support holds!

One cycles source that is proving to be very interesting is the "Change in Trend" blog, and you should take a look at the new post there, at Their information suggests that August 9 may be a high, and I am also seeing from various cycle methods that August 6-9, and especially August 8 or 9, may be a very significant high.

The week that includes August 8 and 9 is also an important week in terms of the Tom Demark indicators, I've been told. I'm no expert in that method, although I have begun to study up. It is my understanding that, since that will be week 9 after the June 4 low, and so long as the Demark support levels are not violated (seems no problem now), the market will be set up for a "Wave C" down to retest the June 4 lows. So that's something to consider too!

This is all in context of the bigger cycles. It's important to understand that the four-year cycle may or may not have topped out. If it has, then the idea of retesting and moving under the June 4 lows becomes quite serious. Otherwise, if the four-year cycle has not topped out, then we could see higher prices around October to November 2012, and even during the year 2013. I've seen good analyses that would project an important peak either in the spring, or in Jun, or August 2013.

One more note: Terry Laundry passed away earlier this month. His remarkable T Theory - which many appreciated, and others don't agree - often pointed to important tops. He used to provide audio commentary about this at His last commentary July 7, 2012 described a mega-T that topped mid-2011 and another (40-year vintage) that topped March 2012. He seemed to think that was it, and the market shouldn't produce any new higher highs for a few years. The work will be left to Parker Binion who's carrying forward Terry's work to help determine if there might be any more ancient T's that might produce higher highs, or was the early 2012 peak all that we get before the bear market sets in.

May as well note also that Martin Armstrong has written a new post at his blog, at He doesn't get very specific for free, but mentions both the ideas of a high August or September, along with a possible panic but not clear if that might be during August or more in September, even October.

These are ideas to ponder until we get past mid-August. For now, it's a matter of navigating the next two weeks.

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