Can you spare a paradigm? Here's a surprising one! Tony Caldaro's 6/30/12 OEW update

Daytraders don't need paradigms but they're vital for investors and swing traders. Tony Caldaro's outdone himself now, showing the big picture across markets and asset classes. Bookmark this one! and read on below (thanks again Tony!). His Objective Elliott Wave work is the best of any Elliott Wave analysis, that's why we feature his reports. Tony also addresses global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, crude oil and other commodities, and many individual stocks in his publics charts list. Use his charts link at the bottom to view all of his public charts. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
June 30, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

Another wild week on Wall Street as the market had gap openings on four of the five days. In the end it was a positive week as there was a gap up opening on friday which took the market to its highest levels of the week. Even the economic news improved somewhat to a balance between positive and negative reports. On the uptick: new/pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI and weekly jobless claims ticked down. On the downtick: consumer confidence/sentiment, personal spending, new home prices, the monetary base and the WLEI. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.35%. Asian markets rallied 1.3%, European markets rose 2.8%, and the DJ World index gained 2.4%. Next week we have a mid-week holiday with reports on ISM, and on friday the monthly Payrolls report.

BIG PICTURE

We thought it would be best this week to start off with the big picture in a few of the world's asset classes. As we all know, medium term trend changes can sometimes be mistaken for long term changes. Therefore it is a good practice, as the saying goes, to keep a sharp eye on the forest before examining its trees.

We covered the Commodity asset class over the weekend. We counted a five Primary wave bull market from 1998 to 2008. Then a Primary A wave decline into 2009, followed by a B wave advance into 2011. Long term we expect commodities to head lower.

We also covered the Precious metals asset class last weekend. This chart has a similar count from the 1999/2001 low topping in 2011. We believe the precious metals are now in potentially a long term bear market.

The next asset class is the DJ World stock index. We count a Primary wave III top in 2000, followed by a Primary wave IV low in 2002, then a Primary wave V high in 2007. The 2007 high is marked as the end of a multi-decade Supercycle wave that started in 1932/42. What followed that peak was the biggest crash and market decline, (60% worldwide), since the 1929-1932 bear market. This bear market, we believe, ended in 2009 and concluded that Supercycle wave. After that low, a two year bull market followed into 2011. Now, equity markets in general are in a bear market. The US, and possibly England and Switzerland appear to be the only exceptions at this time.

We wrote a report of a major change underway last year in the Currencies. Not much has changed, except many of the currencies have confirmed our views. The USD has generally been in a major bear market since 1985 when it hit 164.72. As you can see it has lost more than half its value since then. It did have somewhat of a bull market between 1995 and 2001 when it rose a bit more than 50%. That low and high were labeled Cycle waves [A] and [B] respectively. It has been in a Cycle wave [C] bear market since then. Typically at the end of a bear market the USD establishes a low, in this case Primary wave A at 72.70. Then rallies in a Primary B wave, which may have recently completed at 83.54. This is followed by a higher Primary wave C low to end the Cycle. After this occurs, possibly by 2013/14, the USD should soar into the end of the decade. Potentially it could double. Considering we do not expect the USD to make a lower low than 2011, we would state it appears to be in a long term bull market.

The last asset class covered is the US 30-year Bond. Interest rates on the long term bond have generally been declining since they peaked in 1981 at 14.59%. Recently the 30-year hit an all time low of 2.51%. We have been counting this entire bear market in rates as a series of ABC's: a triple zigzag. The last C wave, of the last zigzag, may have completed at the recent low. This would suggest long term rates should start rising for the next three decades. It should be gradual at first as a new bull market in rates takes hold. This also suggests bond prices should soon start declining. The worse time for investors to own long term bonds is when interest rates are rising. Unless held to maturity.

In conclusion. Commodities, precious metals, worldwide stock indices, and US government bonds are either in, or entering, bear markets. There are, however, selected sectors within these bear markets that are still in bull markets. For example, the US stock market and possibly England's and Switzerland's equity market should make new bull market highs into 2013. These new highs may coincide with the expected USD low in 2013. After that, it would appear the USD and short term US Treasury bills will be the place to be for a couple of years. Plus, US real estate.

LONG TERM: bull market

The US bull market we have been tracking now for three years is still underway. This market has had its share of disappointments and surprises but it continues to unfold. The count we have been carrying is different than the one presented above for the world market indices. While we believe world equity markets generally topped in 2011 the US market remains bullish and in a slightly different pattern.

Our count suggests a Supercycle wave [2] low occurred in 2009, and a Cycle wave [1] bull market is underway. The Cycle wave bull market should unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in Apr11 and Oct11 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since then. Within at least two of the rising Primary waves there should be five clearly defined Major waves. Primary wave I displays five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary wave III is also starting off with the same pattern. A Major wave 1 that subdivided into five Intermediate waves.

After Major wave 1, in Primary I, concluded Major wave 2 was a three month, and somewhat complex, zigzag. All other corrections during Primary I lasted only one month. Major wave 2, in Primary III, thus far appears to be a simple zigzag. And, it has only lasted one month if one uses the bellwether DOW count. Whether or not Major wave 2 has concluded at the early June low we'll examine in the next section. When Major wave 3 unfolds it should be a lengthy uptrend lasting possibly six to seven months. Then a quick Major wave 4 down should be followed by a short rising Major wave 5 to conclude Primary wave III. After a Primary wave IV correction, a rising Primary wave V should unfold to end the bull market sometime in mid to late 2013. Currently it looks like the DOW will make all time new highs before the bull market concludes.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend confirmation pending

After a thorough review of all the charts and indicators it is quite clear markets worldwide had an impressive week. Even though it did not show up in the final weekly numbers. In fact, 80% of the world's indices are in confirmed uptrends or nearing one. This is quite a shift from last week when not one international index was in a confirmed uptrend. In the currency markets the USD joined the JPY in a confirmed downtrend, while the EUR and CHF are now in uptrends. In fact, friday's 1.7% surge in the EUR can be categorized as a rare event. A surge like this occurs only two to three times a year, and is usually at the beginning, or early part, of a stock market uptrend.

In the US, all nine of the SPX sectors we track are in confirmed uptrends or close to it. Indicators such as the VIX and Corporate bond risk are either in a confirmed downtrend or will confirm shortly. Even 1 year rates now have five waves up from their 0.08% record low yield in 2011. It was quite a week!

The major four US indices have been displaying three potential bullish counts, during Primary III, for the past month or so. We have decided to narrow it down to two: the DOW count and the NDX count. The bellwether cyclical DOW displays a Major wave 1 high, of Primary III, in May12. The growth NDX displays a Major wave 3 high, of Primary III, in Mar12. We have adjusted the cyclical SPX to align with the DOW count, counting its May high as a fifth wave failure.

Three weeks ago we received a WROC buy signal. These signals usually arrive at the beginning of a potential uptrend, and are 90+% accurate. After reviewing the initial rally from SPX 1267 – 1363 it appeared to be a bit choppy, corrective even, suggesting we could get an uptrend. But it could be just an Intermediate B wave rally. We still see this as a possibility. As a result we have decided to continue to carry this count, but as an alternate. This alternate count is posted on the DOW and NAZ charts, with the primary count on the SPX and NDX charts.

SHORT TERM:

Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought on friday and closed there. The initial rally from the early June low at SPX 1267 rose to 1363. A pullback followed to SPX 1309 by monday, a retest on tuesday at 1310, then another retest on thursday at 1313 when the DOW made a lower low. Late on thursday the market started to rally, and continued that rally into friday ending at SPX 1362. The entire seven trading day pullback was nearly recaptured in one day. Quite impressive!

With all the previous bullish observations in mind we have labeled the initial advance to SPX 1363 as Minor wave 1, of Intermediate wave i, of Major wave 3. Minor wave 2 should have ended at the SPX 1309, 1310, 1313 complex low. The late thursday/friday rally should be the beginning of Minor wave 3. Initial resistance for this advance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. Support remains at SPX 1342/47, 1334/37 and 1324/27. With the market hitting extremely overbought on friday, a pullback into initial support at SPX 1342/47 would be quite normal. The short term OEW charts turned positive on thursday when the market rallied above SPX 1327. The positive/negative swing point is now around SPX 1334. Best to your trading, and happy 4th of July.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were nearly all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.3%. India and South Korea are now in confirmed uptrends.

The European markets were all higher on the week for a gain of 2.8%. Spain has already confirmed an uptrend.

The Commodity equity group were mixed on the week for a net gain of 1.6%. Canada is in a confirmed uptrend.

The DJ World index rose 2.4% on the week and nearly confirmed an uptrend.

COMMODITIES

Bonds fluctuated a bit this week ending with a 0.3% gain. Bonds are getting close to confirmed a downtrend.

Crude continued lower for most of the week hitting $77.28 on thursday. Then rallied to close the week at $84.82 for a net gain of 6.1% on the week.

Gold has been quite choppy since its May low at $1527, but rallied strongly on friday for a net gain of 1.7% on the week. Gold is now in a confirmed uptrend.

The USD rallied early in the week, but gave it all back on friday for a net loss of 0.8% on the week. The USD is now in a confirmed downtrend. The EUR (+0.7%) and CHF (0.7%) are in confirmed uptrends, while the JPY (+0.8%) remains in a downtrend.

NEXT WEEK

With a holiday, 4th of July, scheduled in mid-week volume is expected to be somewhat on the light side in the US. On monday ISM manufacturing and Construction spending will be released at 10:00. On tuesday, Factory orders and monthly Auto sales. Then on thursday, the ADP index, weekly Jobless claims, and ISM services. The monthly Payrolls report closes out the week on friday. The FED has nothing scheduled at this time. The ECB, however, meets on thursday. Best to your weekend, holiday and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Gold alert - breaking support, now what?! Technical charts review

Gold has moved down enough to break support at the $1560 level identified in my most recent review of gold. You can see this on the P&F chart to the right, which also now shows a bearish target initially to $1460. When you look at my daily chart below (and please forgive the older chart markings on it), one of the features is a shallow sloping downtrend line at the bottom. Interestingly, it could lead gold toward $1517, which also happens to be a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level on my monthly chart. Gold has dipped close to that, but never quite touched it in all the time of the current correction.

If gold does touch or go below $1517, which now does seem rather likely, then it could make for a defined entry, so long as it initiates a pattern reversal upward after tagging or going below $1517. Conversely, if it goes below that - and either fails to reverse upward, or initially goes back up/above but then turns around to go lower again - the next lower target is at $1392 (the 50% retrace I marked on the monthly). Honestly, I think gold could get support at either level.

At first I thought gold really might need $1392. And that remains possible. But now I'm wondering if the mostly sideways nature of this correction implies that it only needs to tag at or somewhat under $1517, before initiating an upward reversal again. Keep an eye on gold to keep track of which scenario proves out.

Fundamentally, the problem seems to be the related combination of deflationary forces and the strengthening U.S. dollar. Gold charted in other currencies may look somewhat different. Again, keep an eye on these levels. If gold gets support at one of these levels, it could have another good move up ahead. I don't want to make predictions yet, but upwards of $2000 seems fair based on the charts, once the correction completes and demonstrates a trend reversal back up.

KI$$ swings can consider gold at these levels: technical charts

Gold hasn't fared well for months. But it's in a position where even KI$$ swings can make a good entry, with a defined stop- loss under the recent set of lows on these charts (perhaps about $1500-$1510). In fact, it would even be possible to use $1550 as a nearby level to want support, which is above the real support area (approximately $1515), based on the rising trend line on the point-&-figure chart at right here. This P&F chart shows a potential target of $1850, so long as it punches above $1600 (a stop order could be used to trigger the buy).

The "high pole" the P&F refers to is the strong spike up on Friday. Sure it could mean something to sell, but it could also be the start of the move up. Follow-through will of course be required.

Of course gold investors want the price to soar much higher, such as to the $2200's and beyond. Based on the lengths of the uptrend waves prior to this consolidation, $2300 or more doesn't seem unreasonable. But first gold must break above the channel midlines indicated on the weekly chart, below. Assuming it does indeed get to $1850, some of the position could be taken off (TMAR - "take the money and run") and place a reasonable stop loss under the remainder, at a level that one feels comfortable with.

The weekly chart does show some Fibonacci retracement levels I had marked weeks ago. So far, gold has remained above the $1517 level, and so it may not need to seek the $1392 level. It is possible that gold has been correcting in time rather than price. That's why it came out of the uptrend channel I'd marked, but it's moving sideways in the price channel that's gone horizontal on the weekly chart. Interestingly, this does alternate with the sharp correction that it experienced after it broke above the price highs spike of the 1970's. That sharp correction looked like a handle in a so-called "cup and handle" set-up. Now, the sideways consolidation that has occurred so far could potentially be building a base from which higher highs are possible. We just don't want to see it break decisively below this range. I will say, however, that a quick poke below $1517 could theoretically be acceptable in order to complete the consolidation; but I recognize that most investors would not want to take that risk. So set your trading plan accordingly, as you see fit.

(For example, one approach might be to either await a drop below and rise back above $1517, or alternatively a rise above $1600. There may well be other approaches.). Below are the weekly and daily charts.

Have U.S Treasury bonds, and the U.S. dollar, topped? Chart levels to watch

Two significant developments that occurred this past week were in the U.S. Treasury bonds, and the U.S. dollar. It is possible that both of these made significant highs and will correct from them. We'll look at each in turn. First, it's interesting that the yield on 10-year bonds hit a low at 1.44 (14.40 on the $TNX chart), because that happens to be a classic Fibonacci number!

Now, here are daily and monthly charts of the long bond, $USB (traded in futures markets as /ZB). We were on alert for a significant high around $150 because that would trigger a bearish "butterfly) Fibonacci pattern, and it also puts it at the top of a very long-term trendline. Sure, it could go higher theoretically, and if it got to $160 that would be another bearish butterfly level. But there are reasons to consider this may be "the top" unless something about the world economic situation really goes to pieces - who knows! Then again, if the financial situation fell apart, it's also quite possible that investors would not want US bonds either because there might be concerns about ability to repay in full ... so consider that ...! Meantime, for trading purposes, we are looking to $146 initially, and depending on what kind of bounce or more might occur from there, it could drop further to test $144 (another Fibonacci level), then 138, even 136.

While it's likely to bounce on the expected way down, the type of downtrend that may set in should create its own channel and we will look for how it reacts according to the markings I placed on these charts. (Notice I also drew a horizontal oval where there's an interesting gap that might get filled, further down and still above the most recent swing lows ... depending on if and when that gap is filled, it might even correspond to a new higher-low level for the big uptrending channel to test.

Eventually, the long-term uptrend channel is likely to give way, but that seems unlikely to happen this year.

Next are daily and monthly charts of the US dollar. You'll notice that among my markings are a .618 Fibonacci retrace on the monthly chart, which contained its rally and sent it back down again this past week. I consider this retrace level to be very significant, because it could send the dollar index back down around 61 - yes, significantly lower lows ... No guarantee of course, but don't discount the possibility. I base the potential projection to 61 partly on Fibonacci extension analysis, and partly on my understanding of the possible Elliott Wave context that may have the dollar consolidating before another wave down. Yes, so far it's just a consolidation - and could break higher OR lower. Maybe policymakers will have a hand in that. We'll just keep an eye on the charts. Since the level just tested is so close by, it's reasonable to look for it to descend further - and only if it breaks above that level, to change positions accordingly.

Investors and traders need to keep an eye on the dollar and use the levels marked on my charts as places to watch for support levels that are likely to be tested. If these support levels give way after being tested, then it's a matter of considering whether it indeed will weaken that far down. Again, it doesn't seem likely to happen this year, but we do need to observe how it moves from here - especially if it does move down quickly.

Stock market looks okay for KI$$ investors - here's what to watch: technical charts

Notice I only said "okay" not screamingly bullish ... That's because there remain resistance levels the market must break above in order to confirm a true bull market. Those levels are marked on my charts below of the SPX and the Dow Transports. One example of an important level is 1360 in the SPX. And eventually, a true bull market would break above the 2007 highs like the Nasdaq did.


Don't forget that it remains possible for the stock market to make a lower low in the correction, so one place to watch in the SPX is the 200-day moving average, as well as the 1274 level. Also don't forget that it remains possible that even if the market pushes up to higher levels later this year, there are scenarios in which that could be just another peak that gets sold off into 2013 and 2014. So don't get complacent even if the markets do rally to higher highs.

Below are charts of the NYMO and bullish percent / SPX - two of my favorite indicator charts for KI$$ swings and investors. They both show marked improvement for the bullish case. No guarantee of course, just a basis for cautious optimism. Below that, a monthly SPX chart. Notice the bearish downtrending forkline trendlines - they are one reason why we must see continued higher highs in order to break those levels to be truly bullish. Otherwise, we might only see the market push up into a failed high. So don't get overly optimistic, and do continue to use stop losses and other trade management and money management!

First step down in a sharp correction? Tony Caldaro's 5/5/12 OEW update

Wow! As Cinco de Mayo is celebrated, we've just seen a sharp first step correction that proves why "C" waves should never be taken lightly. For more on this, here's Tony Caldaro weekend Objective Elliott Wave update (thanks again Tony!). To repeat something I've stated the past three weeks, slower-moving equity investors (and even some KI$$ traders) might prefer to be in cash and wait for a good buying opportunity likely after this month, although gold and silver may be ready now. Tony's work also addresses global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, crude oil and other commodities, and some individual stocks including Apple. Use his charts link at the bottom to view all of his public charts. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

May 5, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

After a two week rebound in Europe it headed lower again this week. This downward pressure, along with some disappointing economic reports, took its toll on the US markets. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were -3.75%. Asian indices managed a modest gain of 0.4%, European indices lost 3.4%, and the DJ World index lost 2.3%. Negative economic reports outnumbered positive ones by a two to one ratio. On the uptick: personal income, PCE prices, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, plus both the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims declined. On the downtick: personal spending, Chicago PMI, auto sales, ADP, factory orders, productivity, ISM services, payrolls, investor sentiment, the M1-multiplier and monetary base, plus the WLEI. Next week we get a look at the twin deficits, Consumer sentiment and the PPI.

LONG TERM: bull market

We continue to observe a bull market unfolding in the US stock market. With an accommodative FED, and a public that has yet to embrace this bull market, it probably has another year to go before it tops in 2013. Price appreciation, however, would appear to be somewhat limited as we continue to project a bull market high between SPX 1545 and 1586, at this time.

Our OEW count continues to suggest this bull market is Cycle wave [1] of a new five wave Supercycle bull market. Primary waves I and II have concluded at SPX 1371 and SPX 1075, respectively in 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since that October 2011 low. Primary wave III appears to be a simple five Major wave structure. Major waves 1 and 2 completed at SPX 1293 in Oct11 and SPX 1159 in Nov11, respectively. Major wave 3 should have concluded at the recent April12 high of SPX 1422. We continue to await an OEW downtrend confirmation in the SPX. This could come as early as next week.

The stock market has been a bit tricky recently with the four major indices moving in different trends during the month of April. With this in mind we posted three potential scenarios last week, with three different probabilities. The two least likely, 20% each, were posted on the SPX and NAZ daily charts. The SPX count suggested the uptrend was continuing and the SPX would make news highs. The NAZ count suggested the April decline ended Major wave 4 and the NAZ would make new highs. The highest probability count, 60%, was posted on the DOW daily chart. It suggested Major wave 3 ended in early April. The decline into mid-April was Intermediate wave A of Major wave 4. Then the expected rally, the DOW did make new highs, would end Intermediate wave B of Major 4. When it concluded, a declining Intermediate wave C would take all four major indices into a Major wave 4 low. This scenario appears to be currently unfolding in the stock market. Please review last weekend's update for those charts.

When Major wave 4 concludes, probably this month, Major wave 5 will take the stock market to new bull market highs to complete Primary wave III. After that the market will experience a fairly steep correction for Primary IV. Then Primary wave V will conclude the bull market.

MEDIUM TERM: SPX/DOW uptrends weakening, NDX/NAZ downtrending

This week the NDX confirmed a downtrend. With the NAZ remaining in a downtrend, they currently confirm the most probable Major wave 4 scenario noted above. Their charts have been updated to display this count. The 20% probability Major wave 4 low in mid-April has been eliminated.

The DOW, which is the bellwether of the US market, started to display this scenario when it started downtrending in early April while the SPX/NDX/NAZ remained in uptrends. This kind of event is quite unusual, and had not happened in more than six years. In the past, after a lengthy uptrend, an isolated downtrend in the DOW has always suggested relative weakness and an upcoming downtrend in the other indices. It also suggested the DOW would experienced a well defined ABC Major wave 4 correction. The first downtrend was Int. wave A. This week the DOW confirmed an uptrend, while none of the other indices made new highs. This was Int. wave B. Next we would expect the DOW to confirm another downtrend, Int. wave C, to end the Major wave 4 correction. When that arrives the market should be close to its low.

The SPX is the traders index. It is a futures driven index just like the NDX. We modified the count slightly last week, to display one of the scenarios and allow for a new high. Since that did not occur, and the index is close to confirming a downtrend of its own, we have reverted back to the original count.

As the market was topping in late March we offered several potential price relationships for Major wave 4. The typical correction for this bull market has been between 95 and 105 SPX points. This suggests a range of SPX 1317-1327. The typical correction during this bull market is 9.1%. This suggests a low around SPX 1293. Fibonacci retracements suggest the following: SPX 1322 (38.2%) and SPX 1291 (50%). Now we can add another. At SPX 1350 Int C = Int A, at SPX 1318 Int C = 1.5 Int A, and at SPX 1310 Int C = 1.618 Int A. If we eliminate the extremes of all these numbers we arrive at a range between SPX 1317 and 1322. From friday's close this would represent about a 3.5% decline. A like decline of 3%+ in the DOW should be sufficient to confirm the downtrend we are expecting. Also this level would be within the upper range of the OEW 1313 pivot. Therefore, to sum up all these calculations we will just state Major wave 4 should end within the range of the OEW 1313 pivot this month.

SHORT TERM

Support is now at the OEW 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum was extremely oversold on friday, and remained so at the close. After the uptrend topped at SPX 1422 the market immediately dropped 65 points, to SPX 1357, in only five days. During the decline there were only three small rallies between 8 and 9 points. After that the market got quite choppy: rallying to SPX 1393, declining to SPX 1359, and then rallying to SPX 1415. The decline to SPX 1359 could be counted as a failed flat Int. wave A: 1357-1393-1359. The strong rally that followed suggests that count is correct.

The rally to 1415 was an abc: 1407-1394-1415, and could be counted as Int. wave B. The decline from that high has only had one small rally of 9 points and the market hit a low of SPX 1369 on friday. This would suggest the market is close to completing Minor wave A of an expected three minor wave Int. wave C decline. Should Int. C follow the Int. A pattern, it should continue to decline with only 8-9 point rallies along the way.

Short term support would be at the OEW 1363 pivot range, and then SPX 1340. Short term resistance is clearly at the OEW 1372 and 1386 pivots. With short term momentum so oversold we would expect at least a small rally shortly. OEW short term charts remain with a negative bias from SPX 1395, with 1390 the current swing point. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.4%. Australia, China, Hong Kong and Indonesia are in uptrends.

The European markets were all lower for a net loss of 3.4%. None of the seven indices are in uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were also all lower losing 3.4%. All three indices are in downtrends.

The DJ World index is downtrending and lost 2.3% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend gaining 0.4% on the week. 10 year yields ended the week at 1.88%.

Crude, uptrending-downtrending, all in a matter of days lost 5.7% on the week. Quite volatile, especially the last two days of the week, as the weekly range was $106.43 to 97.51.

Gold is still trying to get an uptrend underway, but lost 1.3% on the week. Silver, -3.2%, made new downtrend lows.

The downtrending USD, +1.0%, has remained in a 3 point trading range for more than three months. The EUR, -1.3%, has been in a five point trading range for the same period of time. The uptrending JPY gained 0.5% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

A relatively quiet week ahead on the economic front. On monday Consumer credit at 3:00. On wednesday Wholesale inventories. Thursday we'll get reports on weekly Jobless claims, Trade/Budget deficits, and Export/Import prices. On friday the PPI and Consumer sentiment. FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech on thursday on Banking. Best to you and yours this weekend and week!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Corporate earnings to hit all-time highs... Really?! - Chart of the Day

Wheee! Corporate earnings will go to new all-time highs! Or - not? Economic conditions do make us wonder. Let's take a look at the earnings chart provided by the folks at http://www.chartoftheday.com, below. Call me a skeptic but I question whether this will be realistic - take a look and judge for yourself:

Chart of the Day - Corporate earnings expected to make record highs
Today's chart provides some further perspective into the past and future trends of 12-month, as-reported, inflation-adjusted S&P 500 earnings. Today's chart illustrates how earnings declined over 92% from its Q3 2007 pre-financial crisis peak and then, beginning in Q1 2009, quickly surged back to near record levels. This begs the question; will corporate earnings make new record highs? As today's chart illustrates, based on the latest S&P 500 earnings estimates (see red line), earnings are expected to make new, inflation-adjusted record highs during the first half of this year. Considering the current global economic environment, this is indeed quite an achievement.

Notes:

Where's the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron's recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

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