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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning October 3, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
The new moon in Libra last week felt like the scales on steroids. Libra is supposed to be the sign of balance, as signified by its symbol, the scales. The Lady of Justice has two weights, one in each hand, and is trying to find the optimal balance with each. But last week's market activity shows what happens when Uranus and Pluto barge into her space, causing disruption and fears about banking meltdowns. Bank of America didn't help out any by announcing it would now start charging a $5.00 monthly fee just for the use of the debit cards it issues to its own customers, a new policy that other banks will consider in light of the lost revenues they will bear from the onerous Dodd-Frank Banking Regulatory reform act that actually ended up doing very little of the banking reform it promised. It is now one of the major campaign issues that will define the Presidential Election of 2012. The Republicans want to repeal it, and even the Democrats are angry that banks are finding ways to pass on their new regulatory costs to consumers, rather than balancing those costs against their huge profits and cash reserves attained by hoarding cash following their government-taxpayer bailouts from the crisis of2008-2009. Weren't they supposed to lend that money out to help the ailing home owners and small businesses?
But back to the markets… the scales of Libra are having a hard time finding their balance, even following the new moon of last Tuesday, September 27. But that new moon formed a difficult T-square to Uranus (planet of instability and invention), and Pluto (planet of debt, deficits, and fear of defaults as well as reforms). And it's not just the USA and Europe that has the world concerned right now. China is contracting, as evidenced by its stock markets falling to their lowest levels in over a year. China's Shanghai Index fell to 2348 on Friday, September 30, a level not seen since July 2010. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong fell to 16,999, the first time it has been below 17,000 since May 2009! India's Nifty stock index fell below 4800 last week, testing its lows of November 2009. In Japan, the Nikkei stock index fell to 8359, a re-test of its yearly low at 8227 registered back on March 15 as that country was devastated by one of history's most destructive earthquakes, a deadly tsunami, and nuclear plant meltdowns. Still, it held above those lows and actually closed on a bullish signal at the end of last week. It just goes to show the extremes the Lady of Justice will go through to find enough news to encourage the optimists – the bulls – even when other equity markets in the region are falling apart.
But she doesn't limit her efforts for fairness and balance to only Asia and the Pacific Rim. She creates intermarket divergences in other regions of the world as well. In Europe, for instance, the Netherlands AEX fell to 256.30 last Friday, September 23, just one trading day before our three-star critical reversal date of Monday, September 26, when other markets (but not all) also made important lows. That was the lowest level in the AEX in over two years. But none of the other markets we track in Europe made such new lows, although the German DAX fell to 4973 at the same time, slightly higher than its 4965 low of September 12. In contradiction to this bearish pattern, the Swiss SMI stock index soared to its highest level last Thursday, September 29, since the world stock market collapse in July. It was up to 5637, more than 13% above its lows of August 9 at 4967. Suddenly Swiss stocks look attractive, when the rest of Europe is reeling.
In the Americas, only Argentina's Merval Index fell to new monthly lows last week. This is significant when you consider that this country's leading index had been making new all-time highs just 9 months ago and testing them again in July. But by Friday, the Merval had fallen to a new yearly low. Brazil's Bovespa also fell throughout the week, down to the 52,000 area on Friday. But this is still well above its lows of August 8 that were below 48,000. After bottoming at 10,597 last Thursday, September 22, the Dow Jones Industrial Average roared back to 11,369 on Tuesday's new moon. But that was it. But Friday's close it was back near 10,900. The pattern was similar in the NASDAQ Composite. The difference was that on the low of the Composite the prior week at 2420, it was well above its low of 2331 on August 9. The September 23 low in DJIA on the other hand was lower than August 9 (10,604), for yet another case of intermarket bullish divergence during the critical reversal zone of September 26, +/- 3 trading days.
Our September 26 three-star critical reversal date was highlighted in other financial markets too, most notably the precious metals. Silver just crashed over the weekend, falling to a new multi-month low of 2615 exactly on September 26. At the same time Gold fell to 1535, which is a drop of nearly 400 since its all-time high of 1923.70 three weeks ago. The Forecast 2011 Book forecasted that Gold would suffer a 34-month cycle low within three months of August 2011, in which price could fall $140-480. Not a bad call. Crude Oil also fell well below 80.00/barrel last week (the low was 77.11). Just two weeks ago it was trading above 90.00.
Uranus rules tornadoes and earthquakes. In retrospect, it was like the Lady of Justice was trying to keep her scales balances in the midst of a tornado and earthquake. I think her hat probably blew off. But being the Lady that she is, she will recover gracefully and resume her pose, at least until Scorpio comes along next and stings her again.
Short-Term Geocosmics
Maybe things will get calmer next week, as Venus (ruler of Libra) continues her sojourn through Libra until October 9. Usually that passage is favorable for stocks (and not so favorable for precious metals). But the week is unlikely to start out very calm, given the way the U.S. stock markets sold off into the close, and more so given that Mars will form a square Jupiter at the start of the week on Monday. Remember: periods in which Mars, Jupiter and/or Uranus are in aspect to one another tend to coincide with large price swings. We are in one of those periods now. Another point to remember is that new and full moons when the Sun is in Libra can coincide with very important reversals. The high of the past week was on Tuesday, September 27, the exact day of the new moon. The full moon follows on October 11, just before the extremely volatile period of heliocentric Mercury transiting through Sagittarius takes place (October 15-27). And interestingly enough, that ends just as the super-volatile yearly opposition of the Sun and Jupiter takes place on October 28.
If these markets don't find some ground to stand on by the middle of this week, it could a rough ride through the end of the month. But Jupiter forms a trine to Pluto then too, so reforms are coming. Let's hope these reforms produce better outcomes for consumers than the "unintended consequences" of the banking reforms now being realized through the efforts of the Dodd-Frank bill passed last year. Wasn't that act passed during a Mercury retrograde period? Weren't all the problematic federal acts of the last year passed during a Mercury retrograde time band? I don't think it is a cosmic coincidence that next year's election will also take place just as Mercury begins its retrograde motion too.
Longer-Term Thoughts
I know the news of late sounds very depressing, and we have to try hard to find reasons for hope (well, I am Mercury in Sagittarius character, so I have a job to do along these lines). But the news is always depressing and disturbing when longer-term cycle lows are forming. This time is no exception. A long-term cycle low, known as the 15.5-month cycle bottom, is due within three months of October. And like all long-term cycles, once that low is in, a 2-5 month rally is likely to commence. So rather than focus on all the doom and gloom that permeates the news stations, internet blogs, newspapers, and bar room conversations, I would like to suggest that we look at this period as a buying opportunity. People are indeed depressed and bordering on panic, and that's why they sell. But the human psychology of times like this is that they sell very near to the bottom. Everyone knows this, but everyone forgets this when it is actually happening. And it is my job to remind you when you forget what you know – if I remember.
In the study of Financial Astrology, I would like to remind everyone that we are about to enter the October 7-March 7 time band, a period when Jupiter retrogrades back to the 0-7º Taurus sector of the zodiac. It begins this week. As stated last week, "I expect the stock market to make yet another impressive rally during that time, in which prices rise at least 10% (better if 20%) from the low that is forming shortly, ideally by the end of October if not even right here." 'Right here" could have been last Monday, but by Friday, that idea wasn't so clear.
And it is not just in stocks that we should be looking for opportunities. I just put out a special report on Gold and Silver to our subscribers, because those markets are also due to make long-term bottoms shortly. If you are interested, just sign up for any subscription report and request a copy of this special update on precious metals (sorry – sometimes Mercury in Sagittarius can't resist an opportunity to solicit). But it is well worth it, as long as I am not under a hard Neptune transit – and I am not, nor will I be for several years. I am still enjoying my hard Uranus and Pluto transits! At least they are real. Maybe too real at times. Like the Lady of Justice, I too feel that these market tornadoes require a special balancing act. But I think I know which way the wind is blowing. And for most of last week, our trading clients did very well with stocks, precious metals, and Treasuries, catching the weekly highs and lows.
Announcements
If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go tohttp://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them."
It's that time of the year again, and only two more weeks to take advantage of it! As in the past, MMA offers a special pre-publication discount rate for those who pre-order the next year's book before October 15, 2011. The special rate now in effect is $45.00 plus postage. In just one month it will increase to $55.00, its normal price. The annual Forecasts Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Although 2011 is only a little more than half over, several forecasts made in the 2011 book have already unfolded. For a list of some of these forecasts, please go to the front page of our web site at www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to "Scorecard for 2011 Forecasts." There you can also place your order for the Forecast 2012 Book at the special pre-publication rate now in effect through October 15. Or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Save Big Bucks and Order Now!!!
The printed version of Forecast 2012 will be translated into several different languages again this year, and many of these publishers are also offering pre-publication specials as follows: Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl Italian: at www.astrofinanza.com, andhttp://www.astrofinanza.com/mma/shop.html German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/ Japanese: at http://merriman.jp Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/ Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com.
Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2012, as will our Chinese distributor at http://www.zzdcycles.com. "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis" is out as of last week! Man, am I happy! And we are already down to our last 100 books of the first printing! It is a surreal feeling to complete a book of this size (over 300 pages), and it's a surreal feeling to see it out in print, at last. It took two years to write this one, which is par for each of the five books of this series that started in 1997. That was around the time I decided I wanted to "tap into the soul of the stock market," like there is such a thing. Turns out there is, in my opinion. But it depends on how you interpret "soul." If you accept that it is a connection between the observable and the intuitive, that patterns do exist and like oracles, they oftentimes do reveal the future, then it does exist. This is a book describing the tools that serious traders that I know use. I use them. Many of my subscribers use them, although not that many know how I calculate price targets to go along with market timing. This book identifies the formulas I personally use to calculate price targets, and the trading plans I find that work using these market timing and technical indicators. This book is packed with powerful tools (signals), and if you take the time to learn these tools properly, your chances of being a successful trader will increase tremendously, IMHO. The book is 300 pages, printed in perfect bind format, gloss cover, 8-1/2" x 11" size. The retail price of this new book is $144.00.
The publication of Volume 5 will complete the project that started in 1996, and covered approximately 1600 pages of studies and strategies for all types of traders and investors, using our market timing methods. In all, this is a complete and unified approach to analyzing (and trading) financial markets, and especially stock markets. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering all five volumes, or choice of any four now at http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. If ordering all five volumes, you will save $99.00! For more information on this book, go to YouTube athttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnplAS5m2AI, describing this new book. It is "the missing link." You may want to check this video out, as it contains some interesting long-term tips.
Events:
January 6-7, 2012: Zurich Switzerland. Forecast 2012 Symposia sponsored by AstroData. Details to be announced shortly atwww.mma-europe.ch.
January 21, 2012: Amsterdam, Netherlands. "Forecast 2012." The date is not yet finalized, but will be shortly, and it will be around this date. A private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow.
March 1 and 3, 2012: Hong Kong. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1, and a full day intensive on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at earlthorn@hknet.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3.
April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop.
May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go towww.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2011; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
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