Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Technicals support giving the stock market the benefit of doubt even if there's a pullback soon

Today's strong moves in stocks shows that we can be more certain now about giving the major indices and most stocks the benefit of the doubt for swing longs, probably into June as we've expected as part of our Year 2011 overview plan. Now, there remains an idea out there about a turn date in the time frame April 22-25. Stocks might pull back during that time window, or might crest then and pull back afterward. Personally I do favor the scenario of a pullback into April 25 if only because that's the "fund managers' special" low to buy in most months. Well - we'll see. It could be a higher low tiny wave 2 within the bigger wave "3 of 3 of 3" (paraphrasing) that will probably feel like a tsunami while it's happening. I see that Tony Caldaro has us marked as embarking upon that huge expected third wave up. (PS - currencies traders, and investors generally - look at Tony's updated dollar charts projecting a very significant low in the U.S. dollar in 2012, at http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/04/20/usd-dxy-index-update/.)

Turning to some of my key technical charts, below, these show that the market is testing to and starting to move through resistance levels. Moving through these, such as the McClellan Oscillator zero midline, could cause a hiccup that would give us a second bite at the "Apple" ($AAPL, and probably $GOOG too!) for going long. Another is the bullish percent for the S&P 500 ($SPX) having the symbol $BPSPX - it's curled up bullishly, yet could have a little turbulence at moving average resistance near-term. Once we clear anything like that, my indicators support the major indices plus most sectors and stocks moving higher. My indicators turned positive and look like they'll remain positive for some weeks. Even the $TRIN doesn't show the market as overbought on a daily swing basis - it looks like it's just come off oversold, and it's got plenty of room to work before it would show overbought. The hourly indicators may be stretched and overbought, but a minor pullback could solve that. I do see that banks and the finance sector are lagging. That may change, but it may not, so those look like sectors to be underweight during this time frame.

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