Think real estate prices are starting to rebound? Want to know what a difference the vanishing-in-value dollar (a/k/a inflation) makes in the equation? First I'll show two monthly charts, one for IYR (a real estate ETF that's run up since 2009 like everything else), and the U.S. Dollar index ($USD) which looks like it's thrusting toward 66 (hmm, interesting number) after breaking down from a massive triangle. Then we'll see the "Chart of the Day" commentary and big-picture, long-term, inflation-adjusted chart showing how "real" home prices compare, from http://www.chartoftheday.com/20110422.htm
Here are the monthly charts of IYR and $USD:
And now, the inflation-adjusted chart from "Chart of the Day" - maybe home values solidify at support soon, if only for a sustained bounce (e.g., a big wave 2 or B up if you're longer-term bearish; which rebound along with a lower dollar simultaneously, would make many folks happy), before another potential leg yet lower down the road...?
For some perspective on the all-important US real estate market, today's chart illustrates the inflation-adjusted median price of a single-family home in the United States over the past 41 years. Not only did housing prices increase at a rapid rate from 1991 to 2005, the rate at which housing prices increased -- increased. That brings us to today's chart which illustrates how the inflation-adjusted median home price is currently 38% off its 2005 peak. That's a $100,000 drop. In fact, a home buyer who bought the median priced single-family home at the 1979 peak has actually seen that home lose value (8.5% loss). Not an impressive performance considering that more than three decades have passed. It is worth noting that the median priced home is currently in the bottom half of a price range that existed from the late 1970s into the mid-1990s.
Chart of the Day - Home prices down 38% since 2005 peak
Notes:
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