Observations on an internally weak, price-strong rally toward resistance: 8/4/12 review

Folks, once again we can celebrate new stockmarket highs while continuing to be concerned about resistance levels and concerning indicators. In this post, I'm continuing my new format of providing links to the great work of other folks, where it's available, interweaving my own observations (and will post such other analysts work in the entirety if it isn't available elsewhere). The observations from last week projecting to a low on August 2 worked out incredibly well. I don't know if will always be that good, but now we are looking for a High Point early to middle of the upcoming week. I posted via Twitter my own charts showing the very noticeable negative divergence on the McClellan Oscillator charts for both NYSE and the NASDAQ. The McClellan Summation Index also has been rolling over. Which is concerning for the intermediate to longer-term. The volatility index dropped smartly, and it may be showing a potential profit-taking (or cell) time. Monday or Tuesday, possibly as late as Wednesday.

If it were just the VIX, that wouldn't be enough to call a top. It's the negative divergence that plays into this as well. Frankly, sentiment indicators are mixed. So it's also worth looking at other methods. One of those is Elliott Wave analysis, so be sure to review Tony Caldaro's weekend update | the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on, at http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/weekend-update-356/. Tony's update this weekend discusses why the stock market needs to start moving more smoothly upward, and not in more choppiness, in order to look bullish. He also talks about the importance of SPX 1355. He's made the great observation that on Thursday, the SPX tested 1355 as a 61.8% retracement to the prior week's low.

Mike Burke has produced his usual solid technical analysis report for the stock market, Technical Market Report for August 4, 2012 | Mike Burk | Safehaven.com, at http://www.safehaven.com/article/26426/technical-market-report-for-august-4-2012. This weekend, he's looking at the breadth indicators so you can see what he finds concerning, but also pointing out that seasonality favors a continued move to push higher in the upcoming week. Of course, read his report at this link to see the details and his conclusions.

The guys at "Change In Trend" are delighted about having nailed the low last week, so you'll want to see what they're saying about the potential for a high point around August 9, at The Drop Zone | Change-In-Trend: http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/the-drop-zone/.

The technicians at MIG Bank publish fairly often at Safe Haven their analysis updates of currencies, gold and silver. In their latest at http://www.safehaven.com/article/26420/fed-hits-kill-switch-on-liquidity suggest that the euro is running right into resistance at slightly above 1.24 ($XEU, EUR/USD). If that's right, then the concomitant strength in the US dollar may provide a headwind for stocks, supporting the idea that stocks may stall out at resistance in the next few days.

Raymond Merriman had pointed out that August 2 would be an important date, and also that the time around August 8 will be one to watch next. In this weekend's preview column, he discusses in more detail what we should look out for this week as well as the rest of this month (even including the President's birthday August 4). Check it out at http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-6,-2012/.

For the bigger perspective, Droke has written an article at http://www.safehaven.com/article/26420/fed-hits-kill-switch-on-liquidity about the interaction of the Fed and central banks' decisions on liquidity, and the long-wave cycles. He doesn't seem to indicate whether he believes the market will move to new all-time highs, but he does seem to think that after early 2013 the dominant pressure is downward.

ChartsEdge 7/30/12 week forecasts for equities & gold

Here are the cycles-based forecasts from ChartsEdge for the upcoming week in U.S. stock indices and gold (thanks again, Mike Korell!). These are the cycle-based charts, meaning forecasts comprising an integrated view of cycles in this time frame. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily & weekly forecasts, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I think you're missing out if you don't see the additional forecasting he provides to subscribers for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, geocosmics and geomagnetics.
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Thoughts on a small pullback before SPX moves higher in early August 2012

There appear to be various indications that we could have a small pullback before the stock market moves higher. Such a pullback might last for only one day, so be aware of that. The FOMC is coming up next week, and normally we would also expect the new months, new money effect to produce higher prices in the later part of the week, August 1-3. At this point, be prepared for the possibility of a dip on Monday, and then be alert for whether Thursday, August 2 will be a high or low. A pullback may only retest SPX 1350's to 1360. Be sure to read Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave weekend update at http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/weekend-update-355/. He mentions the importance of SPX 1344 in case there's an overbought pullback. He also addresses bonds, currencies, commodities, and other countries' indices.

A potential wildcard in all this is that today, July 28, is a Bradley turn date. I'm told that the Bradley turn dates have been having better accuracy this year. Normally, I don't put much stock in them, and even today we cannot be certain whether this is producing a high right now, or will it simply give us a pullback before a further move up. Just something to keep in mind with all else.

One concerning note is that the McClellan Oscillator didn't make a higher high than it did early July, which looks like a non- confirmation so far. It's early yet, so just another reason to consider a pullback. It'll become more concerning if the indices advance higher without higher highs in the oscillator. It's the one chart I wanted to include with this post (other charts I already posted last night via Twitter) but having technical difficulty click on the Twitter pic link to see it: . The Summation Index is also rolling over, which supports the concerns that the longer term might not be so good either. There's a similar point about the VIX, it made a higher low (not a lower low) so that's a bearish divergence. Also there's a short- term trading signal on VIX that bought Thursday and closes out Monday. Again just something to consider for the weeks ahead. It's also noteworthy that the Dow Industrials $DJI $INDU are stronger, while the Nasdaq 100 $NDX and Russell 2000 $RUT are weaker.

Assuming we pullback a day or so, before we move higher, how high? There seem to be various reasons to expect the SPX to rise above 1400 again.** After that, it's a matter of whether this really is a bull market that will carry on to new higher highs, or at least rise above 1500 again. Or, will the market roll over again and retest the June 4 lows about 1260's to 1280, or go even lower. Personally, I think it can go either way. That's why I think it is increasingly important to be flexible, and to pay attention to timing since the timing of a low or high - rather than absolute price - can be the way to decide whether to hold or fold, and when to re-enter.
**NOTE - I just watched and do recommend Chris Ciovacco's charts analysis video at http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/stock-market-us/bulls-still-in-control/ covering the SPX, equities in general such as other countries and financials, the VIX, internals and breadth, and DeMark indicators status & projections. I'm impressed by the quality and clarity of his analysis; so I highly recommend watching it. Doesn't change my thinking but he does a great job of showing why this market is more bullish than many realize - if support holds!

One cycles source that is proving to be very interesting is the "Change in Trend" blog, and you should take a look at the new post there, at http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/the-drop-zone/. Their information suggests that August 9 may be a high, and I am also seeing from various cycle methods that August 6-9, and especially August 8 or 9, may be a very significant high.

The week that includes August 8 and 9 is also an important week in terms of the Tom Demark indicators, I've been told. I'm no expert in that method, although I have begun to study up. It is my understanding that, since that will be week 9 after the June 4 low, and so long as the Demark support levels are not violated (seems no problem now), the market will be set up for a "Wave C" down to retest the June 4 lows. So that's something to consider too!

This is all in context of the bigger cycles. It's important to understand that the four-year cycle may or may not have topped out. If it has, then the idea of retesting and moving under the June 4 lows becomes quite serious. Otherwise, if the four-year cycle has not topped out, then we could see higher prices around October to November 2012, and even during the year 2013. I've seen good analyses that would project an important peak either in the spring, or in Jun, or August 2013.

One more note: Terry Laundry passed away earlier this month. His remarkable T Theory - which many appreciated, and others don't agree - often pointed to important tops. He used to provide audio commentary about this at TTheory.com. His last commentary July 7, 2012 described a mega-T that topped mid-2011 and another (40-year vintage) that topped March 2012. He seemed to think that was it, and the market shouldn't produce any new higher highs for a few years. The work will be left to Parker Binion who's carrying forward Terry's work to help determine if there might be any more ancient T's that might produce higher highs, or was the early 2012 peak all that we get before the bear market sets in.

May as well note also that Martin Armstrong has written a new post at his blog, at http://armstrongeconomics.com/2012/07/28/dow-jones-rally/. He doesn't get very specific for free, but mentions both the ideas of a high August or September, along with a possible panic but not clear if that might be during August or more in September, even October.

These are ideas to ponder until we get past mid-August. For now, it's a matter of navigating the next two weeks.

Mercury retrograde & markets perplexing investors: Raymond Merriman's 7/23/12 week comments

If you wonder about why the markets can seem very perverse sometimes; such as the VIX being very low while Treasury notes and grains are pushing new highs - be open to answers from financial astrology! We are pleased to start our weekend with Raymond Merriman's unique insights and preview comments (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 23, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

If you are an equities trader, then the past few days have not been "shock and awe." This was our message two weeks ago pertaining to the transit of Mars entering into a T-square with Uranus and Pluto (July 17-18), shortly after both Mercury and Uranus turned retrograde (July 13-14). This was to be the "shock." During this same time and afterwards, Mars would trine Jupiter (also on July 18) and Jupiter would form a favorable sextile to Uranus (July 21). This was to be the "awe." But in equity markets world wide as well as precious metals, it was mostly just prices trading back and forth within a rather narrow range. It wasn't very much shock and it was just a little bit of awe, as some equity markets did rise very briefly to a new monthly high before settling back at the end of last week.

However, there was considerably more action on other markets. Take grains for example. The record hot temperatures in the USA grain belt, accompanied by a lack of moisture, propelled both Corn and Soybeans to new all- time highs during these past 7 days. The nearby Soybean contract rallied to 17.77/bushel on Friday and Corn to $8.28. Food costs are going to rise sharply. But that wasn't the only record broken last week. Mortgage rates fell to an all-time low as the September contract on the Ten Year Treasury Notes soared to new highs, but the 30-year Treasury Bonds fell just shy of their contract high, in what could become a case of intermarket bearish divergence if either close in the lower half of a day's range before negating this set up. As grains and Treasuries made new highs, the Euro currency dropped to its lowest level in over 2 years on the news that Spain's banks are once again entering dire straits. So if you were looking for "shock and awe" and you weren't limiting yourself to just equities and precious metals, it was certainly there.

Equity markets around the world were up and down a lot last week (typical of Mercury retrograde) and are now posing some interesting possibilities related to the powerful geocosmic signatures that were present. Take Europe for example. On Friday, July 20, the AEX of Netherlands, DAX of Germany, and SMI of Zurich all soared to their highest levels since those lows of June 1-5. Bothe the AEX and DAX are up nearly 15% from those lows just 6-7 weeks ago. The SMI is up nearly 11%. But the London FTSE and Russian MICEX could not take out their highs of July 5, for a case of intermarket bearish divergence. The FTSE, by comparison, is up less than 10% since its low of June 1. England is apparently in worse shape than these other Euro markets. Russia's MICEX, on the other hand, was still up over 16% last week from its lows of May 24.

The situation is similar in the United States. The Dow Jones soared slight above its monthly high of 12,961 on July 5 when it attained 12,977 intraday on Thursday, July 19. But the NASDAQ Composite fell short, reaching only 2976 on July 19, slightly below its 2987 high of July 5 for a case of intermarket bearish divergence here. Both markets then sold off rather sharply on Friday to validate this signal. In South America, the Argentine Merval Index soared to 2577 on July 19, its highest level since its low of May 16. The Bovespa of Brazil, however, is well below its high of July 5 and in fact closer to its 52,271 low of June 28, for yet another case of intermarket bearish divergence, in the same region, and within close proximity of a geocosmic critical reversal zone.

Asia and the Pacific Rim were by far the most bizarre of all regions related to equity markets. The Australian All Ordinaries index surged to a new monthly high on Friday at 4245, but that represents a gain of only 5.5% from its primary bottom at 4033 on June 4. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong only got up to 19,656, well below its high of 19,835 back on July 4. But the Japanese Nikkei, India NIFTY and China's Shanghai Index all fell for most of last week, with Shanghai Composite re-testing its lows of January 6. Yet it is exhibiting a bullish oscillator divergence pattern, while the other indices are exhibiting bearish intermarket divergence patterns. Maybe it is time to buy China and sell the other indices of this region, as well as other regions. Most of those indices making highs throughout the world last week did so under falling oscillator levels.

Best Trades of the Past Week

Over the past few weekly columns, I have been inserting trading recommendations made to our subscribers in the prior week. Readers seem to like this type of information to just see how accurate these reports, based on our unique timing methods, have been in many cases.

Our best trades last week were in the stock indices. The daily report for July 18, stated for E-Mini September S&P futures, for example, "Position traders are long with a stop-loss now on a close below 1339. Let's look to exit and stand aside at 1368-1372 if offered." Aggressive traders were also long with the same stop-loss as position traders for now and advised, "But let's exit at 1368-1372 and go short there with a stop-loss on a close above 1380." Both positions had been long from 1340-142 the prior week. On July 18, the E-mini S&P rose to 1370.50. The next day it went a little higher, to 1376, and then reversed. By Friday it was under 1360. We didn't go short for position traders because Mercury is retrograde and we don't usually initiate new position trades during this time, but only short-term aggressive trades.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Last week was a perfect example of Mercury retrograde in both stock indices and precious metals. There were several days in which prices took out the daily support or resistance, only to close back above support or below resistance. This is known as "fake outs" and is a common occurrence under Mercury retrograde. It just reinforces our rule under Mercury retrograde: take profits too soon (i.e. take profits quickly, like every 1-4 days, and don't wait for your price target to get hit and don't expect a break of resistance to be a buy signal or a break of support to be a sell signal. It is just as likely to be a fake out.

Mercury will continue retrograde through August 8. For this week, it (Mercury retrograde) will form a sextile to Jupiter on July 24 and a trine to Uranus on July 25. Both of these are benign, and may give the equities a bit of a lift. Or, given that Mercury is retrograde and the rules don't always work, maybe it will not be much of a lift at all this time. There is not much else going on until July 31, except that Jupiter will sextile Uranus on Saturday, July 21 (see "Longer-Term Thoughts" below).

Longer-Term Thoughts

The longer-term planetary signature now unfolding is known as Jupiter in a waxing sextile to Uranus. We don't usually talk much about sextiles, for it is not as strong as the "hard aspects" of the conjunction, square, and opposition. And it is half the strength of the other favorable and harmonious aspect known as a trine. But it is not really a minor aspect, especially when Jupiter is involved. Unlike the trine, which is favorable in a way similar to "luck," which means "without much effort, opportunities come to you," the sextile is favorable as a result of smart thinking. It is a mental aspect, and one makes gains through good decisions and well-thought out intellectual analysis that usually turns out to be correct.

But these sextile aspects can also have a correlation to market turns, especially when Jupiter (planet of opportunity and 'good luck") is involved. Like most aspects, the sextile can either mean the end of a difficult time and the start of a favorable one, or the end of a favorable up move in markets and the start of a down move. But when we talk about aspects between Jupiter and planets beyond its orbit (like Uranus), these changes in trend don't usually happen right on the day. They can be up to six weeks away. And so it is that Jupiter will sextile Uranus on Saturday, July 21, and thus we look to the time band of six weeks surrounding right now to produce a major trend change.

Here is how this aspect is described – based on its history over the past 140 years, in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles: "This is a reliable signature for timing troughs. In eight of ten cases a 50-week or greater cycle trough occurred within 1 month of the waxing sextile between Jupiter and Uranus. In fact, even if a crest coincided, it was usually 1–3 months before the aspect… then dropped to form a 50-week or 22.5-month cycle trough within 1 month of it. Then the market would embark upon a strong 4–14 month rally. In these cases, investors may use this signature to time purchases of stocks — if a 50-week or 22.5-month cycle trough appears to be forming within 1 month of the aspect."

So as we look at the current instance of this long-term planetary signature, we note that the highest price in three years was attained on May 1, 2012, which was two months ago. If that high at 13,338 in the DJIA holds, it will become labeled as the 4-year cycle crest. This fits its past history of exhibiting such a long-term cycle crest 1-3 months prior to the aspect. But then we note that an important low formed on June 4, which was six weeks ago (or, one month). Measured from the prior low of October 4, 2011, one could say the low June 4 was within the time band of a 50-week cycle trough (range is 38-62 weeks, and that was 42 weeks). The only problem is that this 4-year cycle has not been exhibiting 50-week subcycles. So we are down to this analysis based on this aspect: if June 4 was the 50-week cycle low measured from October 4, 2011, the market would likely be up for the next 4-14 months following June 4, 2012. But if prices cannot exceed 13,338, then chances are greater that the market could fall hard into the 4-year cycle trough due late this year through early 2013 when the "Fiscal Cliff" arrives if the impending explosion in new taxes is not repealed.

Based on Uranus squaring Pluto – a perfect symbol for "falling off a fiscal cliff" due to an explosion of taxes (especially dividend and capital gains taxes) – the stock market is still fundamentally on course for a 30% or greater decline by early 2013. Most analysts think the President and Congress will come to an agreement to avoid this fiscal disaster. I wish I could be as confident. With Pluto in Capricorn square Uranus in Aries, I think it would be unwise to not take steps to protect your investment capital against such an eventuality. These are not signatures of an agreement that takes into account what is best for the country. These are signatures in which people – political leaders – are more apt to act in a manner that causes more harm and destruction than solution, due to past grievances. It's payback time. With Pluto, it could be a time of healing. But for that to happen, it means 1) overcoming past psychological patterns, 2) admission of wrongs, and 3) forgiveness. With Uranus in Aries (a potentially ruthless, self-serving, and merciless combination), these positive possibilities are nothing to hold your breathe for. Still, holding your breath can be a good thing for other reasons. Just remember to occasionally exhale.

Announcements

We are gearing up for our first workshop under the auspices of MMA's Market Timing Academy (MMTA), to take place September 15-16. This will be the pre-training course on "Beginning Principles of Financial Astrology for Financial Market Timing," taking place in Troy, Michigan, at the Management Education Center of Michigan State University. This 10-12 hour course may be attended live, in person, or via webcast televised to your computer. An archive of this workshop will be available for 30 days afterwards to those who sign up. This workshop will basically train non-astrologers in the use of reading an ephemeris, which is the table of planetary positions for any given day. This is essential to anyone who wishes to understand how to find a geocosmic critical reversal date for financial markets. It is not a difficult task, but it does require some training. This course (or audit of it) is a pre-requisite for anyone entering the MMTA market training course, which will officially begin April 6-8, 2013, and will involve 8 weekends of study – 4 weekends each in 2013 and 2014. For more information, please go to www.mmacycles.com. Or, http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/. The cost for the September 15-16 pre-training workshop is $395.00 ($300 for MMA subscribers), or $50.00 to take an Equivalency Exam for those who register by September 1. There will be an additional $50.00 late fee assessed for those who sign up afterwards. This cost will be deducted from the fee of the two-year training course to those who enroll in the MMTA 8-course program by October 15, 2012. For those who wish to enroll in the 2-year MMTA market timing course, and already know how to read an ephemeris, you will be able to audit the introductory training course in about two weeks. The equivalency exam is ready and we are simply working on a format for you to take this exam. Everyone entering MMTA must either take the introductory pre-training, or demonstrate their ability to read an ephemeris by taking the Equivalency Exam. To sign up for the Equivalency Exam please contact Amber Lundsten at ordersmma@msn.com or call 1-248-626-3034 and set up your time to take it. If you plan to come to Troy, Michigan to take the course, also contact Amber for hotel suggestions and special discount rates. If you plan to take the course via webinar, kindly let us know by September 1 (and save money). To do so, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to the bottom of the opening page titled "Introductory Workshop on Basic Principles…." We are pleased to announce that we are nearly done with the re-writing and editing of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles." We expect this book to be in print sometime in September – hopefully in time for the September 15-16 workshop. This means that the special $75.00 pre-order rate will end August 15. At that point, the normal rate of $125 (plus postage) will go into effect. To take advantage of the special pre-order discount price, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/.

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

We are also pleased to announce a new MMA Weekly report titled: MMA Weekly Treasuries, Soybeans, and Crude Oil Report. This will be a 3-5 page report offering comments, analysis, forecasts, and trading strategy for next week's market activity in the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes (Treasuries), Soybeans, and Crude Oil futures only. List of support/resistance areas, trend indicator points, geocosmic and lunar reversal points for the week, cycles phasing, and recommended buy and sell strategies. The cost is $750/yr or $250/3 months. We will offer a one-month trial subscription for $50.00, available only until August 15, as part of our introduction to this new service. Subscriptions are delivered by downloadable postings on the MMA Website, which is entered via your personal password. It is also delivered via an email attachment to all subscribers over the weekend before the market opens.

The DVD of the Denver Workshop on Financial Market Timing is still available! This financial markets workshop offers a completely unique and original perspective, integrating 1) Market Timing studies, 2) Price Objective calculations, 3) Technical Analysis, 4) Pattern Recognition studies, and 5) Trend Analysis. The primary focus of this workshop is on Market Timing Studies, particularly Cycles Analysis and Geocosmic Studies, as leading indicators that identify when to anticipate a reversal in all financial markets. Gold and the U.S. stock market are studied in great detail, especially regarding their current status. There is a wealth of timely and valuable information in this DVD, especially pertaining to the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012, lasting through March 2015, and the important Jupiter correlation to stock market cycles coming up August-November 2012 and March-May 2013. The cost for this 4-hour DVD is $180.00 plus postage. To order, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/dvd-of-boulder-workshop-on-financial-market-timing!!!/. Or call Amber at 1-248-626-3034. If you are a trader or investor who appreciates the value of market timing – especially in the next few months – this is a presentation you will not want to miss!

Our 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

EVENTS:

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, Holiday Inn, 3600 Plymouth Rd, in beautiful Ann Arbor, Michigan. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology and Financial Market Timing with Raymond Merriman on Thursday, August 2. Featuring over 20 astrologers, including Michael Lutin, Chris McRae, Bob Thibodeau, Dennis Fairchild, Monica Dimino, Richard Smoot, Grace Morris and others. For more information, call 303-828-5445, 303-604-2777, or email macasrtrology@yahoo.com, or go to http://macastrology.tripod.com/.

September 15-16, 2012: Troy, Michigan. MMTA – the Merriman Market Timing Academy – will conduct its pre-curriculum introductory workshop on "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing." Deadline for registration to this workshop is September 1, 2013. For further information, please visit http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/, or the bottom of the opening page on www.mmacycles.com. Or contact mmacustomerservice@gmail.com or ordersmmma@msn.com,

April 6-8, 2013: MMTA Course 1: "Cycles and Chart Patterns in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This will be the first of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA). It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.

June 15-17, 2013: MMTA Course 2: "Geocosmic Correlations to Long-Term Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

August 10-12, 2013: MMTA Course 3: "Geocosmic Correlations to Primary and Trading Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

October 12-14, 2013: MMTA Course 4: "Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Reversals in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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Sharp moves still likely in markets: Raymond Merriman's 7/16/12 week preview comments

Raymond Merriman warned about the intense price swings last week, let's see what he shares about upcoming times in the markets (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 16, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

This past week ended with perhaps one of the most pleasant solar-lunar combinations that takes place every year. This is when the Sun is located in Cancer and the Moon is in Taurus. That took place late Wednesday (Eastern daylight time) through Friday. That solar-lunar period is like a very peaceful calm within a greater geocosmic storm known as Mars in T-square to Uranus and Pluto.

But back to the calm in the middle of the storm… the Sun in Caner pertains to family, blood relations like mother-father, daughter-son, granddaughter-grandson, and deep heart relations from…. way back when, and so on. The Moon rules Cancer, so wherever it is this month – when the Sun is in Cancer - highlights a family sense of connection or remembrance, within principles of that current moon sign.

For instance, the Moon rules Cancer but is considered exalted when it is in Taurus, which is generally benevolent. So imagine every year there are 2-3 days during the period of June 20-21 through late July (July 21-22) when the Moon is exalted in Taurus, while at the same time the Sun is going through the Moon's ruling sign of Cancer. Those 2-3 days just transpired July 11-13. And both equity and precious metals' markets took a breather from their 19th nervous breakdown, where each was falling once again into Thursday, only to find a soft landing from which to recover nicely from late Thursday through Friday.

For those into Electional Astrology (the astrology on the art of selecting auspicious moments), I can think of no better time for any 1-3 days of the year in which to move into a new residence. So I did. And the move went relatively smoothly.

The Moon and its ruling sign of Cancer pertain to one's family and home, as well as way-back connections. When the Moon is Taurus, the sign of pleasure and strong values, it signifies an electionally favorable time for anything to do with homes and family, past and future.

Just remember one thing when making a plan based on basic astrological principles: if you have a wide choice on which day to move into a new abode, try your best to pick those 2-3 days during a year when the Sun is Cancer and Moon is Taurus. According to my understanding of Astrology, it doesn't get any better than that for starting new digs. It is especially nice right now, because at the same time Venus (ruler of Taurus and hence dispositor of the moon – because it is in Taurus) is conjunct Jupiter too. That is an additional combination of "good fortune."

Now I bring all this up because for the next week, you are going to hear a lot about Mercury turning retrograde, which indeed does take place from July 14 through August 8. That's a crazy enough period by itself, because it correlates to a turn-about in understanding, as in "misunderstandings." But this period may be especially crazy (after Moon leaves Taurus on Saturday, July 14), because on the same day, July 14, Uranus also turns retrograde. And that can be even crazier than Mercury turning retrograde. So they just stimulate one another to greater heights of brilliance and perhaps in some cases, over-stimulation of the thinking… to the point of becoming irrational and chaotic. But it may be even more than that, because 1) Uranus is freshly squared to Pluto, 2) this Pluto-in-Capricorn kicks Uranus' butt every time Uranus gets too out of bounds, and 3) Mars will be approaching its opposition to Uranus and T-square with Pluto on July 17-18 (Tuesday and Wednesday). Expect Uranus to get out of bounds with its aggression, and once again Pluto will come in to kick his butt shortly after. And this really starts late Saturday night into early Tuesday, when the Moon is in Gemini, home of that Mercury which turns retrograde, on same day as Uranus turning retrograde. My, how fast things could change from this Taurus Moon to Gemini Moon. If you blink, you might miss it, or some important facet of IT.

In terms of markets, we may have seen a nice soft landing in equities last Thursday when the Moon went into Taurus while the Sun was in Cancer. It found support, and had a nice bounce to close out the week. I am not so sure you will see anything remotely close to that early this next week.

Best Trades of the Past Week

Over the past few weekly columns, I have been inserting trading recommendations made to our subscribers in the prior week. Readers seem to like this type of information to just see how accurate these reports, based on our unique timing methods, have been in many cases.

Most of the markets we trade did not initiate new positions last week. The positions already taken include currencies. For example, our daily report has been short for both position and aggressive traders on the Euro currency, taken late last month around 1.2700. It continues to work out well as the Euro continued falling to a low so far of 1.2171 on Friday, July 13.

The weekly report had a good trade too last week in the Sept e-mini in the NASDAQ 100 (NQU) stating,"Position traders are still short with a stop-loss on a close above 2655 or weekly resistance. Aggressive traders are also still short, with a stop-loss now on a close above 2655. We want to exit Thursday at 2582 or better if offered. Wait until Thursday to exit, and only if prices are making new weekly lows then." The high of the week was 2625. On Thursday, it went down and made its weekly low – right on time - at 2516. It closed at 2537 that day and closed the week at 2577. So we made a nice profit on that position. Position traders are also still short the Swiss Franc and Euro-Yen on the weekly report from the highs of a couple of weeks ago, and getting very close to our exit point.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Heliocentric Mercury will end its bout through Sagittarius on Tuesday, July 17. This is also the day that Mars will square Pluto and trine Jupiter. The next day Mars will be in opposition to Uranus, which is part of the Arch Crawford "crash cycle" referred to last week. Given that the Moon is leaving the friendly domain of Taurus after Friday's close, and headed to the wacky and wild irrational brilliance of Gemini as we start next week (with Mercury and Uranus both turning retrograde), it could indeed correspond with a sharp reversal again. But it may just as quickly spring right back to life again as Jupiter heads to its sextile (favorable) to Uranus by next weekend, July 21.

There is a lot going on in the heavens right now. It is the first translation of a planet (Sun-Earth) to the Uranus-Pluto square since its first of seven square passages took place June 24. But as you can see, the nature of the planetary contacts forming now is on opposite sides of the spectrum. One half is conflicted and dramatic, and the other half is filled with surprisingly good news and developments. Financial markets usually respond with large price swings in short spans of time, known as whip-saws. Be careful of the whipsaws this week. Be careful of accidents, for anytime Mars and Uranus come together, it can be a period of unexpected dangers from Mother Nature or human aggressions. It a time of rebelliousness, when it is wiser to just not act on impulse in dealing with others. Think before acting out.

Longer-Term Thoughts:

Will return next week.

Announcements

The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, and an attachment via direct emails, for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, and Treasury Notes. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only, and will be available on Wednesday. For further information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/subscription-services/mma-cycles-report/.

We are pleased to announce a new MMA Weekly report titled: MMA Weekly Treasuries, Soybeans, and Crude Oil Report. This will be a 3-5 page report offering comments, analysis, forecasts, and trading strategy for next week's market activity in the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes (Treasuries), Soybeans, and Crude Oil futures only. List of support/resistance areas, trend indicator points, geocosmic and lunar reversal points for the week, cycles phasing, and recommended buy and sell strategies. The cost is $750/yr or $250/3 months. We will offer a one-month trial subscription for $50.00, available only until August 15, as part of our introduction to this new service. Subscriptions are delivered by downloadable postings on the MMA Website, which is entered via your personal password. It is also delivered via an email attachment to all subscribers over the weekend before the market opens. You can sign up for this via ourwebsite at www.mmacycles.com under "Subscriptions."

In order to be a successful market timer using the principles of Financial Astrology, one needs to know how to read an ephemeris. For this purpose, MMA's Market Timing Academy (MMTA) will offer a pre-training course on "Beginning Principles of Financial Astrology for Financial Market Timing," September 15-16, in Troy, Michigan, at the Management Education Center of Michigan State University. This 10-12 hour course may be attended live, in person, or via webcast televised to your computer. An archive of this workshop will be available for 30 days afterwards to those who sign up. This workshop will basically train non-astrologers in the use of reading an ephemeris, which is the table of planetary positions for any given day. This is essential to anyone who wishes to understand how to find a geocosmic critical reversal date for financial markets. It is not a difficult task, but it does require some steps. This course (or audit of it) is a pre-requisite for anyone entering the MMTA market training course, which will begin in April 6-8, 2013, and will involve 8 weekends of study – 4 weekends each in 2013 and 2014. For more information and registration, please go to www.mmacycles.com (front page, near bottom). Or, http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/. The cost for the September 15-16 pre-training workshop is $395.00 ($300 for MMA subscribers), or $50.00 to take an Equivalency Exam for those who register by September 1. There will be an additional $50.00 late fee assessed for those who sign up afterwards. This cost will be deducted from the fee of the two-year training course to those who enroll in the MMTA 8-course program by October 15, 2012.

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

The DVD of the Denver Workshop on Financial Market Timing is still available! This financial markets workshop offers a completely unique and original perspective, integrating 1) Market Timing studies, 2) Price Objective calculations, 3) Technical Analysis, 4) Pattern Recognition studies, and 5) Trend Analysis. The primary focus of this workshop is on Market Timing Studies, particularly Cycles Analysis and Geocosmic Studies, as leading indicators that identify when to anticipate a reversal in all financial markets. Gold and the U.S. stock market are studied in great detail, especially regarding their current status. There is a wealth of timely and valuable information in this DVD, especially pertaining to the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012, lasting through March 2015, and the important Jupiter correlation to stock market cycles coming up August-November 2012 and March-May 2013. The cost for this 4-hour DVD is $180.00 plus postage. To order, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/dvd-of-boulder-workshop-on-financial-market-timing!!!/. Or call Amber at 1-248-626-3034. If you are a trader or investor who appreciates the value of market timing – especially in the next few months – this is a presentation you will not want to miss!

Our 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

EVENTS:

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, Holiday Inn, 3600 Plymouth Rd, in beautiful Ann Arbor, Michigan. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology and Financial Market Timing with Raymond Merriman on Thursday, August 2. Featuring over 20 astrologers, including Michael Lutin, Chris McRae, Bob Thibodeau, Dennis Fairchild, Monica Dimino, Richard Smoot, Grace Morris and others. For more information, call 303-828-5445, 303-604-2777, or email macasrtrology@yahoo.com, or go to http://macastrology.tripod.com/.

September 15-16, 2012: Troy, Michigan. MMTA – the Merriman Market Timing Academy – will conduct its pre-curriculum introductory workshop on "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing." Deadline for registration to this workshop is September 1, 2013. For further information, please visit http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/, or the bottom of the opening page on www.mmacycles.com. Or contact mmacustomerservice@gmail.com or ordersmmma@msn.com,

April 6-8, 2013: MMTA Course 1: "Cycles and Chart Patterns in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This will be the first of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA). It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.

June 15-17, 2013: MMTA Course 2: "Geocosmic Correlations to Long-Term Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

August 10-12, 2013: MMTA Course 3: "Geocosmic Correlations to Primary and Trading Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

October 12-14, 2013: MMTA Course 4: "Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Reversals in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2011; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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