Happy Holidays to all! It's a great time to review how this market surprised most with its bullishness, and how much may be ahead for more push up into next year, even if there is a pullback perhaps into March 2011 ... And even review if this Bradley turn date time window gives us a swing turn (and whether it'll be for a new year/month, new money rise). Raymond Merriman's financial astrology is a very interesting way for us to start this review, especially this holiday weekend. His weekly previews indicate his financial forecasting analysis, including market cycles, economy, and even the political climate. He also uses cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. His paid subscription services are more precise in terms of predictions; but, that's fair of course! These weekly free preview comments are more intended to be general commentaries although they can often provide illumination or perspective on what's happening. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning December 27, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
Note: Due to the holiday seasons, the columns of this week and next week will be very brief. Well, this week isn’t so brief after all.
Review and Preview
Equity markets throughout the world were relatively quiet again last week. There were no major reversals, despite the powerful lunar eclipse on the Winter Solstice last week on December 21. Once again, Mercury retrograde and the High Holiday season took precedence over the geocosmic picture. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and German DAX all moved in an orderly fashion to new 2-year highs. Most of the other world equity markets were also up modestly last week, but nothing spectacular. Crude Oil and Soybeans were more impressive, as both rallied to new yearly highs with some excitement behind them. Gold and Silver were quiet, still well below their 30-year highs of December 7, which was our last three-star critical reversal zone. In the case of Gold, that was the all-time high.
Short-Term Geocosmics
The markets may return to more normal behavior after the New Year begins. On Tuesday, January 4, the third and final Jupiter-Uranus conjunction takes place. That is a Level One geocosmic signature, denoting the higher-than-usual probability for the completion of primary cycles within about one week. Mercury also turns direct on December 30, just two trading days before the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction. One day before that, on December 29, the war-like Mars-Saturn square takes place, and this may also coincide with abnormal temperatures (extreme cold or hot). That will also end the November 26-December 29 translation of Mars to the Jupiter-Uranus-Pluto-Saturn arrangement that comprised the peak of the Cardinal Climax last summer. By itself, that translation indicates a period of stress and resistance. Once it passes, perhaps economic matters will flow more easily. For example, maybe both employment and corporate sales will start to show greater signs of improvement.
Longer-Term Thoughts
Thanks to everyone who sent such positive messages to last week’s “Christmas Astrology story.” It was a pleasure to share that with everyone.
As we come to the end of 2010, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to everyone who reads this column. I receive a lot of mail from readers, and about 90% of it is very supportive. The other 10%... well, you are never going to please everyone, especially when the subject matter deals with anything astrological, financial, or political. We still live in the Dark Ages when it comes to collective understanding and acceptance of astrology, even though it is the oldest surviving study known to humankind. There is a reason why it has survived, and there is a reason why Financial Astrology continues to expand in leaps and bounds within the trading community. That simply would not happen if there was an absence of truth or value, for financial markets and the financial community is unforgiving with anything or anyone that does not work consistently and effectively over time.
Looking back on 2010, it was indeed a very remarkable year, from both the standpoint of geocosmic correlations to human activity, and their correspondence to financial market turning points. For me personally, it was another very rewarding year for trading based on the methods discussed in this column. Yet, like everyone else I know, I too struggled with the equity and precious metals markets during the peak of the Cardinal Climax, from late June through late September. Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced at that the time that financial markets and the economic climate were “unusually uncertain.” My forecast of an “Asset Inflation Express” made in the Forecast 2010 Book, to take place late May 2010 through mid-2011, was in doubt as the Dow Jones Industrial Average abruptly ended a rally into the summer solstice of June 21, and quickly fell to new yearly lows by July 2. The call in the Forecast 2010 book was for stock prices to rally sharply, possibly even to new all-time highs, from late-May 2010 through June 2011. I won’t reiterate the slew of personal attacks received at that time for that forecast. Am I a moron? Am I an idiot? Am I a con man? Some readers thought so.
But now, it is evident that this forecast is coming true, as several stock markets the world over soar to new 2-year highs, including the DJIA. It took until late August to take off, a little later than called for, probably due to the presence of Saturn afflicting all of the Cardinal Climax planets until its final passage of a waning square to Pluto on August 21. Even CNBC carried a story this past week titled “Are There Too Many Bulls in the Stock Market?” No one believed it would happen in late 2009 when the forecast was made, and very few believed it would happen even as late as mid-2010. Yet today, it seems everyone – and the market - has finally caught up to us. Astrology is ruled by Uranus, and Uranus is always ahead of its time.
Even as we struggled in late May through the summer with equities and precious metals, other markets were behaving exactly as called for, and yielded excellent profits to balance the difference. The call of the bottom for the Euro currency just below 1.2000 in early June (as the first Jupiter-Uranus conjunction took place) and the call for a drought and the consequent yearly high in Wheat above 800 during the first week of August (as Mars entered the Cardinal Climax pattern), were exceptional by any standards – especially since they were made back in November 2009. And prior to late June, and after mid-September, the MMA weekly reports caught almost every large move in Gold and the stock markets. As the year comes to an end, our position trades have been long nearly the entire month in stock indices and soybeans, and both have made new 2-year highs since the positions were initiated. Position traders also exited long Gold positions within one day of Gold’s all-time high on December 7, making the last quarter of 2010 one of our best quarters ever.
2010 now comes to an end. It was not an easy year for many people. We are in the midst of this powerful and very rare Cardinal Climax, which started in 2008 and will last through 2020, with most of the influence taking place 2008-2015. It requires each of us to think “outside the box,” for life as we have known it is undergoing another cathartic transformation. As the cosmos moves, so too does life on earth. As above, so below – but you have to know how to read God’s handwriting in the heavens (“as above…”), which is no easy task, even for Financial and Mundane Astrologers. You also have to be sensible, combining the dynamic of astrological signatures with human choices (or free will), for the outcome of any matter is dependent upon the interplay between the two. That is why the work we do is forecasting, and not prediction, because you never know exactly which course of action an individual or group will choose under any given astrological aspect. One who believes in “astrology as prediction” believes the astrologer can make this determination, as if the astrologer is the “choice-maker.” One who believes in “astrology as forecasting” understands you cannot. You can only reveal the choices, and the potential consequences of those choices, to be made. But the astrologer cannot ethically make that choice. He/she is only the “choice revealer,” not the “choice maker.”
These are my closing thoughts for 2010, which I believe will ultimately be judged as one of the most important years of a lifetime for humanity. The geocosmic patterns of 2010 were certainly one of the four most impressive of a lifetime. And now we await and see what the consequences of those choices we made as a collective will be for 2011, and even for this new decade. Up ahead awaits the quarter phase of the 126-year Uranus-Pluto cycle, taking place 2012-2015. The collective transformation is still in its beginning stages.
May 2011 bring each one of you good health, great happiness and prosperity.
Announcements
It’s out!!! The Forecast 2011 Book is now out. The Chinese, Swiss, Dutch, Japanese, Spanish, and Russian versions are also out or due out any day now. We are pleased to announce that that this year’s book is be available in each of these languages, through the following MMA publishers, which also publish our free weekly columns in their respective languages. Please contact them to order your copy in these languages:
Chinese: at http://www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/
Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com
And now it is out on IPad and IPhone too! The English version is available to any resident of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, United Kingdom, or the United States. Just go to “Library” of ITunes, then “Store,” then in the field titled “Search,” type in “Forecast 2011” or “Raymond Merriman” (without quotation marks). The Spanish translation is also now available via the I Pad and I Phone 4. Very soon now we expect to have both the English and Spanish versions available in Amazon.com Kindle’s electronic book.
January 9, 2011: The “Forecasts for 2011 Webcast” with Raymond Merriman is on! It will take place on Sunday, January 9, 2011, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that’s 6:00 PM, GMT, or 10:00 AM in Los Angeles). Via the modern technology of Your-Niversity.com, you can log onto this presentation on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2011, in the comfort of your own home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You can hear the speech and see the live slide show, complete with the charts as they are being discussed, on your computer screen. You will be able to ask questions directly to Merriman. The cost for this special event is $45.00. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before January 6), for space will be limited. If you are interested in attending this unique live webcast, just register at (www.mmacycles.com), or http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/forecast-2011,-live-webcast-on-january-9,-2011/, or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you can’t make it at the time of the live event, it will be available for viewing for the following 30 days to those who do reserve. You may also order the presentation in CD or DVD.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
As it is the beginning of a New Year, I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won’t manage other people’s money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one’s portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to MMA services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O’Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 247-0600. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the “Best in-house fund of funds” in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner’s funds, you may contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
Upcoming Events:
January 14-15, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus a one-day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman. The Friday evening symposium begins at 7:00 PM, and features Claude Weiss, Alexandra Klinghammer, Dr. Christoph Schubert-Weller, Verena Bachmann, Monica Kissling, and Raymond Merriman. The cost is 95 CHF. Merriman’s talk will be in English (with German translation), the others in German. The Saturday workshop on “Financial Market Timing and Financial Astrology” will take place from 10:00 AM-5:00 PM at the Hotel Senator. The cost is 330 CHF afterwards (includes lunch). The workshop will be in English. For more details, go to www.mma-europe.ch, or http://www.mma-europe.ch/stage3.asp?pg1=33&pg2=35&pg3=155. Or you may email to christian.wuethrich@astrodata.com, the conference registrar. For English description and schedule, go to http://www.mma-europe.ch/MMA_Event_Jan2011.pdf.
February 6, 2011: Lansing, MI. “Forecasts for 2011” with Raymond Merriman, sponsored by the LCAS. 1-4:00 PM, Hampton Inn in Okemos (near I-96, exit 110). Contact 517-664-2665 for information. Or www.LCASastrology.com.
April 14 and 16, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. For more information, please go to http://www.astrologykansascity.com/, or contact allenblasco@yahoo.com. This will probably be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States. Please note these are new dates.
May 6-8, and May 14, 2011: Ljubljana, Slovenia and Belgrade, Serbia. Contact bern@astrology.si for details on Slovenia conference and aleksandar@keplerunited.org for Belgrade conference. The subject matter at both conferences will be Financial Astrology.
May-June 2011: I may be hosting a series of talks and meetings with MMA subscribers in Europe over an 8-week period, including Amsterdam, Hamburg, and Berlin, as I complete the final chapters of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Forecasting Prices.” Details will be announced soon.
September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html. I am going to have to start talking about this soon because it will be a big event for me. I haven’t had a multi-day conference on my work for several years now. This will be a joy and a challenge to put together what I have learned since 2006, both as a market timing analyst and a trader. I hope several of you can join us. I believe it will be well worth it, if you wish to learn these methods of analysis, and talk to others who also seriously study these subjects. Sign up early to get an advanced registration discount. I have never been to Bali, but I hear it is lovely. I may stay there a few additional weeks and write.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
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Showing posts with label Year 2010 Overview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Year 2010 Overview. Show all posts
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Stock market's moving fine to OEW price objectives, so watch these levels: Tony Caldaro's weekend update
It's beginning to look a lot like the Santa rally concept is taking over! Will it last? Increasingly it is looking like the market won't crest out until January (whatever the Dec. 25 Bradley date may bring). The market has been moving to Objective Elliott Wave counts that Tony Caldaro has been talking about, so we should take a look at his price levels and objectives. One of the tools he's incorporating into his analysis is Fibonacci, which definitely resonates in my book. Gold traders should also look for what he's saying about the current chart pattern that mat be forming, too. Tony with his "the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on" shares his insights and this is quite helpful to investors and traders in all time frames. Let's take a look at specifically what Tony is saying (thanks again Tony!) this weekend in his website (always in the links list at right, and via the feed there too) at http://caldaro.wordpress.com/:
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
December 11, 2010
weekend update
weekend update
by Tony Caldaro
REVIEW
REVIEW
Another positive week for US equities as the SPX/NDX/NAZ all made new bull market highs. Economic reports were nearly all positive. The only negatives were an increase in the budget deficit and a downtick in the M1 multiplier. On the positive side, the trade deficit improved along with import/export prices and weekly mortgage applications. Consumer credit expanded, consumer sentiment improved; wholesale inventories, the monetary base and the WLEI all rose. Also weekly jobless claims and excess reserves declined. These reports continued the 2010 second half trend of an improving, not deteriorating, economy.
For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.8%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.5%. Asian markets were -0.3%, Europe was +1.4%, the Commodity equity group was flat, and the DJ World index was +0.6%. Bonds were -2.0%, Crude was -1.4%, Gold was -2.0%, and the USD was +0.9%. Next week is another busy week highlighted by the FOMC meeting, Options expiration and Retail sales.
LONG TERM: bull market
In September, 2010 we combined all the technical facits of OEW and projected a potential scenario for the rest of the bull market: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/09/26/spx-bull-market-projection/. Thus far our first wave up, Major wave 1, remains on track to reach the OEW 1313 pivot by January 2011. This bull market projection approach is very similar to the one we used in August, 2006 which projected a bull market top around the OEW 1553 pivot near the end of 2007:http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2006/08/16/anniversary-special/. That projection worked quite well as the SPX topped at 1576 in October, 2007. We will continue to track our current projection into our estimated bull market top in early 2012.
Our current bull market is progressing nicely with new bull market highs just this week after the November pullback. The weekly RSI and MACD continue to rise and neither are close to getting overbought. This bull market continues to track the 2002-2007 bull market, to some degree, and you can observe the similar important resistance levels noted by the light blue lines.
The daily chart provides a closeup of the current uptrend, Major wave 1, which began at the Primary wave II low at SPX 1011 in July. With new uptrend highs this week Intermediate wave five, of Major wave 1, was confirmed. Now the task is to identify the five Minor waves of Intermediate wave five as this multi-month uptrend nears its conclusion.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high reaches SPX 1240
When we examine this uptrend closely we had labeled the Intermediate wave one high in August at SPX 1129: Int. wave one rose 118 points (1011-1127). After an Int. wave two zigzag pullback Int. wave three hit SPX 1227 in early November: Int. wave three rose 187 points (1040-1227). Intermediate wave three had about a 1.618 fibonacci relationship to Int. wave one. Quite normal in EW terms. Then after an Int. wave four flat pullback in November Int. wave five is now underway.
The typical fibonacci price targets for this price/wave activity is as follows: @ SPX 1246 Int. five = 0.618 Int. one; @ SPX 1289 Int. five = 0.618 Int. three; @ SPX 1291 Int. five = Int. one; and @ SPX 1360 Int. five = Int. three. The minimum advance, SPX 1246 and the OEW 1240 pivot, was reached on friday. The normal advance SPX 1289-1291 and the OEW 1291 pivot is next. Then the extreme advance SPX 1360 and the 1363 pivot would be quite unusual, but possible. Once the OEW 1240 pivot range is cleared the next objective is the 1261 pivot, and then the 1291 pivot. If we observe five Minor waves into the 1291 pivot then we should be looking for an end to this multi-month uptrend at that point. Thus far, it appears Intermediate wave five is still in Minor wave 1.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is now at 1240 and then 1222, with resistance at 1261 and then 1291. Short term momentum is getting quite overbought. Throughout this uptrend the minor pullbacks have been between 10 and 18 points. The more significant pullbacks, that help define more important waves, have been over 20 points. Thus far, since the Dec 1st SPX 1174 low, the only noteworthy pullback has been a minor 15 points.
During both Intermediate waves one and three there were at least four pullbacks of 20 points or more. We have yet to see one during the beginning of Int. wave five. Also noteworthy. Minor 1 of Int. one rose 88 points (1011-1099) and Minor 1 of Int. three rose 109 points (1040-1149) before either had a significant over 20 point pullback. Thus far, Minor wave 1 of Int. five has risen only 67 points (1173-1240) without a significant pullback. For this uptrend this is quite normal.
While the technicals look fine, eight of the nine SPX sectors in uptrends and nine of the fifteen world indices in uptrends, we remain objective. Support is now at the OEW 1222 pivot and then the SPX 1207 breakout level. Should this SPX 1207 level be broken, to the downside, this uptrend may be turning over. At no time, in the next several weeks, should the SPX reach the OEW 1176 pivot again. That would nearly certainly confirm a downtrend. On the upside, the SPX closed above the 1240 pivot for the first time in two years. The next objective is the 1261 pivot, then the 1291, 1303 and 1313 pivots. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.3%. China's SSEC is in a downtrend, and India's BSE is rising but still in a downtrend.
The European markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.4%. England's FTSE, Spain's IBEX and the STOX50 are in downtrends but rising.
The Commodity equity group was mixed on the week and unchanged. Brazil's BVSP remains in a downtrend.
The DJ World index remains in an uptrend and gained 0.6% on the week.
COMMODITIES
Bonds had one of their worse weeks in quite some time losing 2.0%. 10YR rates have risen from 2.33% in October to 3.30% this week, and probably will go somewhat higher.
Crude lost 1.4% on the week but remains in an uptrend.
Gold lost 2.0% on the week but both Silver and Gold remain in uptrends. There could be a short term diagonal triangle forming in Gold while Silver completes its uptrend.
The USD gained 0.9% on the week as its uptrend continues. The EURUSD lost 1.4% and the JPYUSD lost 1.5%, both remain in downtrends.
NEXT WEEK
A busy week ahead! Tuesday kicks off the week with the PPI, Retail sales and Business inventories, all before the FOMC statement in the afternoon. On wednesday, the CPI, NY FED, Industrial production and the NAHB housing price index. Then on thursday, the weekly Jobless claims, Housing starts, Building permits, the Current accound deficit and the Philly FED. On friday we have Options expiration and the BEA leading indicators. Nothing, other than the FOMC meeting, is on the FED's schedule at this time. Best to you and yours this Holiday season!
CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Stock market pullback isn't the big grinch if your Elliott Wave is Objective: Tony Caldaro's weekend update
We knew the stock market advance was fraying, and it was one of the points I was able to make in a post several days ago pointing out the very low put-call ratio and VIX testing support. Tony Caldaro was pointing out that a wave count may have completed at one level, as well. So it isn't surprising to see the markets taking a breather by declining. If you're one of the very bearish Elliott Wave types, you're thinking that the big "three of three" down is now go ing to sweep the markets into near oblivion. Could that happen? Well theoretically, but it's better to be objective and take note of the factors that Tony has pointed out, suggesting that the market is basically more bullish than that. Meaning that the weakness we've already seen is more likely to be an intermediate type of correction before the market resumes uptrending probably into the classic "Santy rally" in December. So let the more bearish ideas be firmly alternative counts only, and get with the idea that the "Grinch" probably won't get the upper hand this holiday season. Let's take a look at specifically what Tony is saying (thanks again Tony!) in his weekend update at http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
weekend update
Posted on November 13, 2010 by tony caldaro
REVIEW
After last week’s good performance, (+3.25%), the equity market gave back some of its gains with its worse weekly performance since the second week of August. Economic reports for the week were all either positive or improving. The trade/budget deficits improved, import/export prices were positive, and consumer sentiment rose, along with wholesale inventories and weekly mortgage applications. Weekly jobless claims declined, the WLEI and M1 multiplier improved, while the monetary base held steady.
After matching the uptrend high on tuesday, however, the markets spent the rest of the week in pullback mode. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.2%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.3%. Asian markets were -2.4%, European markets lost 1.3%, the Commodity equity group lost 1.3%, and the DOW World index was -2.2%. Bonds were -1.2%, Crude lost 2.2%, Gold was -1.8% and the USD was 2.0% higher. Next week’s highlights include: retails sales, PPI/CPI, industrial production, and speeches from the 6th European Central Bank conference.
LONG TERM: bull market
This week we review the bull market, in the US, that has unfolded and continues to unfold. In October 2007 equities entered a 17 month bear market. The market lost 58% of its value, as measured by the SPX, and 54% in the DOW. This was the worse bear market in over seventy years in terms of percentage loss. When it concluded in March 2009 the OEW waves had formed a detailed 5-3-5 zigzag. From that SPX 667 low the market began to impulse higher. The first wave up completed in Jun09 at SPX 956. A wave 2 correction followed into Jly09 at SPX 869. The next rally took six months into Jan10 when the SPX hit 1150. This was followed by another one month correction into Feb10 and SPX 1045. The fifth wave, up from the SPX 667 low, took the market to SPX 1220 by Apr10. We labeled these waves as five Major waves completing Primary wave I of a five primary wave bull market.
After Primary wave I topped a larger correction, Primary wave II, was underway. This correction took the form of a zigzag and bottomed in Jly10 at SPX 1011. This low was very close to Major wave 4, which is typical of a bull market. Since the Jly10 low the market has rallied to new bull market highs at SPX 1227. This uptrend is Major wave 1 of Primary wave III. When it concludes, which is estimated to be in Jan11, there will be a correction to form Major wave 2. Then the market will make higher bull market highs during Major wave 3. This is how bull markets unfold.
The bull market pattern between Oct02 and Oct07 is a bit different since it was a bull market of a different wave degree. Notice how four Major waves, of a five Major wave bull market, completed early. Then Major wave 5 took three years to unfold as it continually subdivided. Also notice, each new impulsing uptrend created high highs for the bull market. This is exactly what is transpiring during this bull market. Only this time the angular rate of the bull market is steeper. Which suggests this market will reach its bull market high in a much faster time. We’re currently estimating early 2012.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1227
Each uptrend of this bull market has unfolded in five Intermediate waves. Some of these waves have taken only weeks to unfold, while others have taken months. The first three uptrends of this bull market took: 3 months, 6 months and 2 months respectively. Our current uptrend is already in its fourth month, (July-Nov). We estimated, soon after it began, this wave would take about six months to unfold, (July 2010-Jan 2011). Knowing this, in advance, we knew at times the internal wave structure would be a bit difficult to track. In fact, the six month (July 2009 to Jan 2010), uptrend frustrated even the best of them. Thus far, this uptrend has not been that complicated.
It started off with a strong kickoff rally from SPX 1011, the Primary wave II low, to SPX 1129 in Aug10. This 118 SPX point gain, (11.7%), we labeled Intermediate wave one. The pullback that followed, for the rest of August, bottomed at SPX 1040 and we labeled it Intermediate wave two. Since then the market has rallied 187 SPX points, (18.0%), to 1227. We have been tracking this rally as Intermediate wave three. At the recent high Int. wave three has nearly a 1.618 fibonacci relationship to Int. wave one. SPX 1231 is a perfect 1.618 relationship. We made note of this in last weekend’s update.
Our preferred count is the one posted on the chart below. However, we must keep in mind that the choppy market activity between mid-Oct to early-Nov was difficult to follow. After considerable thought, during that period, we opted for this count. There is another count which suggests that Intermediate wave three topped at SPX 1227 with the near 1.618 relationship to Intermediate wave one. We have this count posted on the DOW hourly chart, see link below (link to all public charts, near the bottom of this post).
Under either scenario the recent downdraft is only expected to be a pullback during an ongoing uptrend. And, the internal technicals currently support that view. Eight of the nine SPX sectors remain in uptrends, XLU the exception. Fourteen of the fifteen World indices we track remain in uptrends, Spain’s IBEX the exception. The weekly MACD continues to rise, but the RSI did get quite overbought. The market is probably setting up for another negative divergence when the uptrend does conclude.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX remains at 1187 and then 1176, with resistance at 1222 and then 1240. Short term momentum was very oversold at friday’s SPX 1194 low and has started to rise. We noted the potential for a pullback tuesday morning when the SPX displayed a negative RSI divergence on its retest of SPX 1227. The market declined to SPX 1204 on wednesday and then rallied to 1219. A gap down on thursday took it to SPX 1204 again and then the market rallied to 1214. Friday’s gap down, however, took it to that 1204 level again and then broke through it in the afternoon, hitting SPX 1194.
During this three day decline the market has now dropped 33 SPX points, its largest pullback since Intermediate wave three began. And, the daily RSI is now the most oversold it has been in over two months. With friday’s dip down to SPX 1194 the market entered the range of the OEW 1187 support pivot. The range of these pivots is +/- 7 points. As long as this pivot holds support, the preferred count posted in the SPX daily chart above is in force. Should the SPX break through this pivot’s range the DOW alternate count, Intermediate wave four underway, would be the preferred count.
Should the market fail to sustain a decent rally early next week, or break lower, support for Intermediate wave four will likely occur at either the 1176, 1168 or 1146 pivots. Since Intermediate wave one concluded at SPX 1129 the pullback should not overlap that level. Int. wave one topped within the range of the OEW 1136 pivot. Which is the one directly below 1146. All these pivots are noted on the SPX daily chart in light blue. The early part of next week should give us a good idea as to what is next: a Minor wave 4 low or an Intermediate wave four low. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 2.4%. India’s BSE led the group lower -4.0% while Japan’s NIKK was +1.0%. All remain in uptrends.
The European markets were all lower losing 1.3%. Spain’s IBEX was -1.9% and Germany’s DAX was -0.3%. All remain in uptrends.
The Commodity equity group were mostly lower -1.3%. All remain in uptrends.
The DOW World index lost 2.2% on the week and remains in an uptrend.
COMMODITIES
Bonds were -1.2% on the week. As expected 10YR yields are now uptrending in the QE 0.6 environment. In the past month, yields have risen from 2.33% to 2.78%.
Crude lost 2.2% on the week, all of it and then some on friday. There is a negative RSI divergence on the daily chart after what appears to be a fifth wave in its uptrend.
Gold lost 1.8% on the week and its uptrend is also displaying a negative RSI divergence on the daily charts. Silver traded over $29 on tuesday and closed barely over $26 on friday. Platinum also tumbled after hitting an uptrend high at $1,806, it ended the week at $1,681. All are displaying negative daily RSI divergences, and the latter two negative weekly divergences as well. The last rally in gold, two days, failed to make a new high.
The USD, +2.0% on the week, appears to be uptrending. The EUR, (-2.4%), is already in a confirmed downtrend and the JPYUSD (-1.4%) is weakening as well. The Swiss CHFUSD is also downtrending.
NEXT WEEK
A busy week ahead starting on monday with Retail sales and the NY FED at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00. On tuesday, we’ll have the PPI report, Industrial production and the NAHB housing index. Wednesday, the CPI and building starts/permits. On thursday, weekly Jobless claims, BEA leading indicators and the Philly FED. Friday is Options expiration. FED chairman Bernanke will be in Germany towards the end of the week, and will give speeches on friday before the US opens for trading. Best to your week!
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
weekend update
Posted on November 13, 2010 by tony caldaro
REVIEW
After last week’s good performance, (+3.25%), the equity market gave back some of its gains with its worse weekly performance since the second week of August. Economic reports for the week were all either positive or improving. The trade/budget deficits improved, import/export prices were positive, and consumer sentiment rose, along with wholesale inventories and weekly mortgage applications. Weekly jobless claims declined, the WLEI and M1 multiplier improved, while the monetary base held steady.
After matching the uptrend high on tuesday, however, the markets spent the rest of the week in pullback mode. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.2%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.3%. Asian markets were -2.4%, European markets lost 1.3%, the Commodity equity group lost 1.3%, and the DOW World index was -2.2%. Bonds were -1.2%, Crude lost 2.2%, Gold was -1.8% and the USD was 2.0% higher. Next week’s highlights include: retails sales, PPI/CPI, industrial production, and speeches from the 6th European Central Bank conference.
LONG TERM: bull market
This week we review the bull market, in the US, that has unfolded and continues to unfold. In October 2007 equities entered a 17 month bear market. The market lost 58% of its value, as measured by the SPX, and 54% in the DOW. This was the worse bear market in over seventy years in terms of percentage loss. When it concluded in March 2009 the OEW waves had formed a detailed 5-3-5 zigzag. From that SPX 667 low the market began to impulse higher. The first wave up completed in Jun09 at SPX 956. A wave 2 correction followed into Jly09 at SPX 869. The next rally took six months into Jan10 when the SPX hit 1150. This was followed by another one month correction into Feb10 and SPX 1045. The fifth wave, up from the SPX 667 low, took the market to SPX 1220 by Apr10. We labeled these waves as five Major waves completing Primary wave I of a five primary wave bull market.
After Primary wave I topped a larger correction, Primary wave II, was underway. This correction took the form of a zigzag and bottomed in Jly10 at SPX 1011. This low was very close to Major wave 4, which is typical of a bull market. Since the Jly10 low the market has rallied to new bull market highs at SPX 1227. This uptrend is Major wave 1 of Primary wave III. When it concludes, which is estimated to be in Jan11, there will be a correction to form Major wave 2. Then the market will make higher bull market highs during Major wave 3. This is how bull markets unfold.
The bull market pattern between Oct02 and Oct07 is a bit different since it was a bull market of a different wave degree. Notice how four Major waves, of a five Major wave bull market, completed early. Then Major wave 5 took three years to unfold as it continually subdivided. Also notice, each new impulsing uptrend created high highs for the bull market. This is exactly what is transpiring during this bull market. Only this time the angular rate of the bull market is steeper. Which suggests this market will reach its bull market high in a much faster time. We’re currently estimating early 2012.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1227
Each uptrend of this bull market has unfolded in five Intermediate waves. Some of these waves have taken only weeks to unfold, while others have taken months. The first three uptrends of this bull market took: 3 months, 6 months and 2 months respectively. Our current uptrend is already in its fourth month, (July-Nov). We estimated, soon after it began, this wave would take about six months to unfold, (July 2010-Jan 2011). Knowing this, in advance, we knew at times the internal wave structure would be a bit difficult to track. In fact, the six month (July 2009 to Jan 2010), uptrend frustrated even the best of them. Thus far, this uptrend has not been that complicated.
It started off with a strong kickoff rally from SPX 1011, the Primary wave II low, to SPX 1129 in Aug10. This 118 SPX point gain, (11.7%), we labeled Intermediate wave one. The pullback that followed, for the rest of August, bottomed at SPX 1040 and we labeled it Intermediate wave two. Since then the market has rallied 187 SPX points, (18.0%), to 1227. We have been tracking this rally as Intermediate wave three. At the recent high Int. wave three has nearly a 1.618 fibonacci relationship to Int. wave one. SPX 1231 is a perfect 1.618 relationship. We made note of this in last weekend’s update.
Our preferred count is the one posted on the chart below. However, we must keep in mind that the choppy market activity between mid-Oct to early-Nov was difficult to follow. After considerable thought, during that period, we opted for this count. There is another count which suggests that Intermediate wave three topped at SPX 1227 with the near 1.618 relationship to Intermediate wave one. We have this count posted on the DOW hourly chart, see link below (link to all public charts, near the bottom of this post).
Under either scenario the recent downdraft is only expected to be a pullback during an ongoing uptrend. And, the internal technicals currently support that view. Eight of the nine SPX sectors remain in uptrends, XLU the exception. Fourteen of the fifteen World indices we track remain in uptrends, Spain’s IBEX the exception. The weekly MACD continues to rise, but the RSI did get quite overbought. The market is probably setting up for another negative divergence when the uptrend does conclude.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX remains at 1187 and then 1176, with resistance at 1222 and then 1240. Short term momentum was very oversold at friday’s SPX 1194 low and has started to rise. We noted the potential for a pullback tuesday morning when the SPX displayed a negative RSI divergence on its retest of SPX 1227. The market declined to SPX 1204 on wednesday and then rallied to 1219. A gap down on thursday took it to SPX 1204 again and then the market rallied to 1214. Friday’s gap down, however, took it to that 1204 level again and then broke through it in the afternoon, hitting SPX 1194.
During this three day decline the market has now dropped 33 SPX points, its largest pullback since Intermediate wave three began. And, the daily RSI is now the most oversold it has been in over two months. With friday’s dip down to SPX 1194 the market entered the range of the OEW 1187 support pivot. The range of these pivots is +/- 7 points. As long as this pivot holds support, the preferred count posted in the SPX daily chart above is in force. Should the SPX break through this pivot’s range the DOW alternate count, Intermediate wave four underway, would be the preferred count.
Should the market fail to sustain a decent rally early next week, or break lower, support for Intermediate wave four will likely occur at either the 1176, 1168 or 1146 pivots. Since Intermediate wave one concluded at SPX 1129 the pullback should not overlap that level. Int. wave one topped within the range of the OEW 1136 pivot. Which is the one directly below 1146. All these pivots are noted on the SPX daily chart in light blue. The early part of next week should give us a good idea as to what is next: a Minor wave 4 low or an Intermediate wave four low. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 2.4%. India’s BSE led the group lower -4.0% while Japan’s NIKK was +1.0%. All remain in uptrends.
The European markets were all lower losing 1.3%. Spain’s IBEX was -1.9% and Germany’s DAX was -0.3%. All remain in uptrends.
The Commodity equity group were mostly lower -1.3%. All remain in uptrends.
The DOW World index lost 2.2% on the week and remains in an uptrend.
COMMODITIES
Bonds were -1.2% on the week. As expected 10YR yields are now uptrending in the QE 0.6 environment. In the past month, yields have risen from 2.33% to 2.78%.
Crude lost 2.2% on the week, all of it and then some on friday. There is a negative RSI divergence on the daily chart after what appears to be a fifth wave in its uptrend.
Gold lost 1.8% on the week and its uptrend is also displaying a negative RSI divergence on the daily charts. Silver traded over $29 on tuesday and closed barely over $26 on friday. Platinum also tumbled after hitting an uptrend high at $1,806, it ended the week at $1,681. All are displaying negative daily RSI divergences, and the latter two negative weekly divergences as well. The last rally in gold, two days, failed to make a new high.
The USD, +2.0% on the week, appears to be uptrending. The EUR, (-2.4%), is already in a confirmed downtrend and the JPYUSD (-1.4%) is weakening as well. The Swiss CHFUSD is also downtrending.
NEXT WEEK
A busy week ahead starting on monday with Retail sales and the NY FED at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00. On tuesday, we’ll have the PPI report, Industrial production and the NAHB housing index. Wednesday, the CPI and building starts/permits. On thursday, weekly Jobless claims, BEA leading indicators and the Philly FED. Friday is Options expiration. FED chairman Bernanke will be in Germany towards the end of the week, and will give speeches on friday before the US opens for trading. Best to your week!
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Elliott Wave expert utilizes long and near-term cycles analysis to map the Dow's direction: Tony Caldaro's OEW update
The Dow and its companion major indices, like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Compq and Nasdaq 100, should be shaping up for a consolidation or moderate correction sometime over the next few weeks, followed by another rise into January. At least that's how I read Tony Caldaro's update; but be sure to read it yourself below, to really understand not only that but the bigger picture for the stock markets the rest of this year and the years ahead. Tony's Elliott Wave work is objective, his approach methodical - and his practice of employing other techniques to triangulate on the most likely outcomes is much appreciated. This weekend he's presenting ways to see how time cycles can be analyzed in order to gauge the stock markets' path.
A few weeks ago Tony changed his website URL for "the ELLIOTT WAVE Lives On"/Objective Elliott Wave, so update your bookmarks accordingly. The Objective Elliott Wave concepts of Tony Caldaro help measure out the market's movements, trend, and probabilities. We appreciate being able to feature Tony's weekend updates. They're full of insightful analysis, which is also why we keep his site and daily updates feed at the right side of the page (thanks again Tony!). Let's find out what he's seeing and saying in this weekend's update:
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the Elliott Wave Lives On
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/10/30/weekend-update-265/
by Tony Caldaro
October 30, 2010
weekend update
A few weeks ago Tony changed his website URL for "the ELLIOTT WAVE Lives On"/Objective Elliott Wave, so update your bookmarks accordingly. The Objective Elliott Wave concepts of Tony Caldaro help measure out the market's movements, trend, and probabilities. We appreciate being able to feature Tony's weekend updates. They're full of insightful analysis, which is also why we keep his site and daily updates feed at the right side of the page (thanks again Tony!). Let's find out what he's seeing and saying in this weekend's update:
=============
the Elliott Wave Lives On
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/10/30/weekend-update-265/
by Tony Caldaro
October 30, 2010
weekend update
REVIEW
For the first time in quite a while positive weekly economic reports outweighed negative reports by over three to one. The market responded, before the reports, with a new uptrend high and then went sideways during the reports. On the negative side. We had a lower rise in the Case-Shiller index, a decline in the UofM consumer sentiment and the M1 multiplier. On the postive side. Existing/new homes sales rose as did the FHFA price index and weekly mortgage applications. Q3 GDP rose, along with durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. Weekly jobless claims declined and the WLEI continued to move higher. The stock market, however, remained in a trading range. The SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.05%. Asian markets lost 0.9%, European markets lost 0.7%, the Commodity equity group gained 0.2%, and the DJ World index was flat. Bonds were -0.1%, Crude lost 0.3%, Gold gained 2.3%, and the USD was -0.6%. Next week will be highlighted by tuesday elections, the FOMC statement on wednesday, and the Payrolls report on friday. Best to your week!
LONG TERM: bull market
While the medium term trend remains up and the short term continues its sideways with a upward bias movement, we continue to step back and look at the bigger picture again this week. Last week we covered the US and various foreign markets, illustrating how their bullish wave patterns look quite similar:http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/10/23/weekend-update-264/. This week we will view the US stock market from a time cycles perspective.
The time cycles we follow occur on a regular basis and last from two to thirty-four years. They are typically measured from bottom to bottom. This determines the length of the cycle. After a bottom a cycle will exert upside momentum on the stock market, and then downside pressure after they top. The most commonly known time cycle, in the US, is the 4 year Presidential cycle. We first wrote about this cycle back in mid-2006, when it was bottoming. The chart below displays the effect of a 4 year cycle bottom going back to 1980. This cycle has been operative since 1934. Observe how it usually bottoms at important stock market lows, i.e. 1982, 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002. The two other times, 1986 and 2006, the cycle low occurred more than a year before the stock market hit an important high. We wrote about its upcoming low in May 2010:http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/05/24/the-4-year-cycle/. The four year Presidential cycle bottomed in July 2010.
The next two time cycles we will examine are two we found using OEW analysis. The first one is the 34 year Secular cycle. This time cycle is similarly aligned with the 34 year commodity cycle, which we have discussed from time to time since we uncovered that one. This cycle has been quite regular since the 1949 stock market low. It rises for about 18 years and then declines for about 16 years. Please observe on the chart below the secular bull markets: 1949-1967 and 1982-2000. Then the secular bear markets: 1929-1949, 1967-1982 and 2000-2016 est. This cycle suggests we have been in a secular bear market since the year 2000 which should last until around 2016. So why are we bullish?
Secular bear markets are about 16 years in duration and exhibit a pattern within the down cycle. First, the stock market makes an important peak about 6 – 8 years into the cycle: 1937, 1973 and 2007. Second, the stock market then makes an important low about 6 – 8 years before the cycle ends: 1942, 1974 and 2009. This low is never revisited again as the market starts working its way higher/sideways until the cycle ends. March 2009 was the stock market price low for the 34 year Secular cycle.
The third cycle we will review is the two year Tech Product cycle. This cycle is based on technology and we use the SOX (semiconductor) index to track it. We reported on this cycle recently in a special report: the SPX (S&P 500) with SOX (semiconductor index): http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/09/15/the-spx-with-sox/. The chart below displays how the 2 year tech product cycle works in conjuction with the 4 year presidential cycle. Observe the regular two year cycle lows in 1994, 1996 and 1998. Then again in 2002, 2004 and 2006. The 2 year cycle low in 2000 created a bounce for only two months during the dotcom meltdown. Now notice the low in 2008 and the recent low in August 2010. Every two year cycle low has led to a surge in the stock market lasting for more than one year.
In summary, we are in the bearish part of the 34 year secular cycle but the actual price low already occurred in March 2009. Currently there is an upward bias lasting until around 2012/2013. With the 4 year presidential cycle bottoming in July 2010, and the 2 year tech product cycle bottoming in August 2010. There is additional upside momentum from both of these cycles as well. We continue to be bullish into at least 2012.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high at SPX 1196
The uptrend that started at the early July low at SPX 1011 has run into some resistance here at the OEW 1187 pivot. We have been counting this uptrend as Major wave 1 of Primary wave III of this five Primary wave bull market. As you can observe from the chart below we have counted this bull market as having completed Primary wave I in April 2010 at SPX 1220, after it completed five Major waves up from the March 2009 at SPX 1011 low. Then the market declined about 17% into the July SPX 1011 low, ending Primary wave II.
During this uptrend Major wave 1 has been subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Intermediate wave one ended at SPX 1129 in early August. This was followed by Intermediate wave two at SPX 1040 into the end of August. Intermediate wave three hit a new high at this week at SPX 1196.
As you will have observed, we are also counting the internal structure of Intermediate wave three with five Minor waves. The recent high at SPX 1196 is sufficent to meet the minimum required for the completion of Intermediate wave three. However, we are expecting something closer to the OEW 1222 pivot, which ended Primary wave I. After we do get a pullback for Intermediate wave four, which should find support between the OEW 1136 and 1168 pivots. Then Intermediate wave five should be underway until around January 2011.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX remains at 1176 and then 1168, with resistance at 1187 and then 1222. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral. For the past three weeks, when the SPX hit 1184 this market has struggled to break through and hold the OEW 1187 pivot. We had a momentary breakthrough early monday but it failed to hold. During this three week period the market has experienced four pullbacks, between 17 and 26 points, after each new marginal uptrend high. These types of pullbacks have been quite normal during Intermediate wave three. As a result of this choppiness we are maintaining three short term counts: two on the SPX hourly and one on the DOW hourly. Use the link below to access those charts.
When observing the technicals we find some weakness in the daily MACD, and a negative divergence in the daily RSI. On a weekly basis, the RSI is starting to display an overbought condition for this uptrend. The financial sector is also showing some weakness with the XLF already in a downtrend. The KBE (major banks) and KRE (regional banks) have been weakening as well. All other eight sectors, of the SPX's nine sectors, look fine.
With the tuesday election and the wednesday FOMC statement, we should get a resolution to the short term count this week. A close above the OEW 1187 pivot should clear the way for higher prices short term. A break below the OEW 1176 pivot range would likely indicate this uptrend has entered Intermediate wave four. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.9%. All indices are in uptrends but India's BSE and Japan's NIKK are displaying some weakness.
European markets were all lower on the week for a net loss of 0.7%. All indices are in uptrends.
The Commodity equity group were mostly higher for a net gain of 0.2%. All in uptrends.
The DJ World index was flat on the week and remains in an uptrend.
COMMODITIES
Bonds lost 0.1% on the week. It still looks like Bond rates are trying to confirm an uptrend.
Crude declined 0.3% on the week and remains in an uptrend.
Gold reversed last week's decline and gained 2.3%. Resumption of its uptrend underway. Still targeting a minimum of between $1389 and $1411 for this uptrend.
The USD lost 0.6% on the week. We had another postive divergence recently that has done nothing but provide a short term rally. Still downtrending.
NEXT WEEK
Busy, busy week ahead. On monday Personal income/spending and the PCE prices at 8:30, then ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00. Tuesday is election day and the start of the FOMC meeting. On wednesday we have the ADP index, ISM services, Factory orders, Auto sales, and the FED's FOMC statement. Thursday, weekly Jobless claims, and Q3 Productivity. On friday, the monthly Payrolls report, the Unemployment rate, Pending home sales and Consumer credit. The FED does not have anything else currently scheduled. Best to your weekend and week!
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Monday, October 18, 2010
Buy dip next week and be bullish into December: ChartsEdge stock market forecast commentary
While many are now beginning to see the bullish strength of the stock market, there are reasons to expect a pullback. We'd thought that might occur today or this week. But aside from some chop that may occur this week, the pullback may be postponed to next week. Mike Korell of ChartsEdge is one of the talented forecasters saying this. Let's see what else he's saying at his webpage at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ (thanks again Mike!):
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Long-term outlook
Posted: October 17th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »I personally trade in several time frames. One of these is quarterly. In order to do this I create a forecast which extends out six months. During the last year these forecasts have been quite good. I began sharing these on this thread at end of August, and the results have been accurate.
The fourth quarter of 2010 should continue higher into December 24 at a high in the area of 1300.
The first quarter of 2011 shows to trade lower at least into March. There could be some recovery at that time, but I have a couple months to prepare for that trade.
In the near-term, we are approaching a consolidation which is aptly timed to late October which is well known for sharp selloffs. At this time I only expect this move lower to be 15 to 20 SPX points, although more could develop. A five wave move higher will follow into December.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Dip likely next week's a buy, no reason to be bearish this stock market: Tony Cakdaro's "the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on" OEW update
A dip next week seems likely, but don't assume it's the beginning of a nasty crash ... It's more likely to be a dip buying opportunity (or if you've been short, a chance to cover and switch to long). We're getting this word from some respected technicians, including Elliottician Tony Caldaro. Fortunately, there's at least one objective Elliott Wave expert, who also shares his great insights (in addition to his tutoring for advanced students)! Tony Caldaro predicted this bullishness in stock market movement. And in this weekend's update (below), Tony also discusses additional evidence from his analysis and expectations including how he expects the market to rise and fall in the future; plus levels to watch for either resistance turns or breakthroughs.
He's changed his website URL so update your bookmarks accordingly. The Objective Elliott Wave concepts of Tony Caldaro help measure out the market's movements, trend, and probabilities. We appreciate being able to feature Tony's weekend updates. They're full of insightful analysis, which is also why we keep his site and daily updates feed at the right side of the page (thanks again Tony!). Let's find out what he's seeing and saying in this weekend's update:
=============
the Elliott Wave Lives On
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/10/16/weekend-update-263/
by Tony Caldaro
October 16, 2010
weekend update
He's changed his website URL so update your bookmarks accordingly. The Objective Elliott Wave concepts of Tony Caldaro help measure out the market's movements, trend, and probabilities. We appreciate being able to feature Tony's weekend updates. They're full of insightful analysis, which is also why we keep his site and daily updates feed at the right side of the page (thanks again Tony!). Let's find out what he's seeing and saying in this weekend's update:
=============
the Elliott Wave Lives On
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/10/16/weekend-update-263/
by Tony Caldaro
October 16, 2010
weekend update
REVIEW
After a quiet beginning the market again moved to new uptrend highs this week. Economic reports were mostly positive with only four indicators worsening or weak, and thirteen steady or improving. On the negative side; weekly jobless claims increased as did the trade deficit, consumer sentiment and the monetary base declined. On the plus side; weekly mortgage applications increased along with retail sales, the NY FED, the WLEI and the M1 multiplier. Holding steady or improving; export/import prices, the CPI/PPI and business inventories. The budget deficit was also less negative. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +3.15%. Asian markets gained 2.2%, European markets were +1.7%, and the Commodity equity group was +1.0%. Bonds were -0.9%, Crude lost 1.5%, Gold gained 1.6%, and the USD lost 0.2%. Housing, industrial production and the FED's beige book highlight the upcoming week.
LONG TERM: bull market
This week we review a chart we examined several months ago, while the market was in the Apr10 to July10 correction. We posted the chart below. You can also go to the link below under CHARTS and it's the third chart down on the first page. This chart displays the weekly activity of the SPX from Oct02 to present. Before we discuss the wave structure there are several technical observations that should be noted.
First, at the bottom of the chart we display the weekly MACD. Notice during the Oct02-Oct07 bull market this indicator stayed above the neutral, the "0″ line, for the entire bull market. Then when the market started to breakdown in early 2008 and enter a bear market, the neutral level was breached and this indicator stayed negative for all of that decline. Now observe in mid-2009 the MACD crossed above the neutral again and has remained above it ever since. This is normal bull/bear market action for this indicator.
Second, we like to review the RSI 5 indicator at the top of the chart. Notice during the Oct02-Oct07 bull market this indicator constantly hit an overbought reading – above 70. Then during the Oct07-Mar09 bear market it never hit an overbought reading. Now after the Mar09 low the RSI 5 is again hitting overbought readings. This also is normal bull market activity.
Third, we review the wave structure of the Oct02-Oct07 bull market, the Oct07-Mar09 bear market, and the current bull market. During the first bull market there was a five Major wave advance from the Oct02 low to complete Primary wave V. Also observe that Major waves 1 and 3 were relatively simple waves and Major wave 5 was quite detailed and extended. During the Oct07-Mar09 bear market the selloff was quite swift and the wave structure was a 5-3-5 zigzag.
Now during this bull market, anticipated to unfold between Mar09 and Feb12, we're counting it as a five Primary wave structure. Primary wave I subdivided into five Major waves as noted on the chart. This was followed by a Primary wave II correction. Now the market should be in Major wave 1 of Primary wave III. Near the end of September we created a roadmap for the anticipated wave structure for this bull market. This is just a guideline but worth a look:http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/09/26/spx-bull-market-projection/. Clearly, from an objective elliott wave view, we see no reason to be bearish on the US equity market.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
This uptrend, Major wave 1, that started in early July has been somewhat different from the three previous Major wave uptrends of this bull market. The early part of the uptrend coincided with two separate cycle lows. First the four year Presidential cycle bottom in early July, and then the two year Tech product cycle bottom in late August. Since then this uptrend has made steady progress higher. In fact, four of the nine SPX sectors have already made new bull market highs: XLB (basic materials), XLK (technology), XLP (consumer staples) and XLU (utilites). In addition, the NDX and the NYAD (market breadth) posted new bull market highs this week as well. In the foreign markets five of the thirteen indices we track also made new bull market highs: BSE (India), BVSP (Brazil), DAX (Germany), HSI (Hong Kong) and the TSE (Canada). Plus the Dow Jones World index also made a new bull market high. These foreign markets are confirming the bullish market activity in the US.
Since this uptrend is a Major wave it should subdivide into five Intermediate waves. Intermediate wave one concluded at SPX 1129 in early August. Intermediate wave two ended in late August at SPX 1040. Intermediate wave three is currently underway. The three rising Intermediate waves, during this uptrend, should subdivide into five Minor waves. We observed this wave structure during Intermediate wave one, and we are now observing it again in Intermediate wave three. Minor wave 1 ended at SPX 1149 in mid-September, Minor wave 2 hit SPX 1123 shortly thereafter, and Minor wave 3 may have just ended at the recent SPX 1184 uptrend high. The next few days of market activity should help to confirm that event.
When Intermediate wave three concludes, estimated near the OEW 1222 pivot, Intermediate wave four should provide the biggest pullback since late August. Then we are expecting Intermediate wave five to continue the uptrend into early 2011 and potentially nearing the OEW 1313 pivot. This would make this uptrend similar to the Major wave 3 uptrend in time and in price. These price levels and the time factor are, naturally, just guidelines.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is at 1176 and then 1168, with resistance at 1187 and then 1222. Short term momentum ended the week coming off of a slightly oversold condition and is now rising past neutral. It is possible that friday's retest of the SPX 1167 low ended Minor wave 4. This pullback was 17 points(1184-1167) and the short term OEW charts moved to slightly positive during the rest of the trading day on friday. Minor wave 2 pulled back from SPX 1149 to 1123 (26 points) in mid-September - so they are similar.
Overhead resistance is at the 1187 pivot, and then the bull market high pivot at 1222. Support remains at the OEW 1168 pivot and then around the SPX 1150 area, (OEW 1146 pivot). A breakdown below the 1146 pivot would make the current short term count questionable. Also, a breakdown below the 1136 pivot would put the entire uptrend count in jeopardy. On the upside, once the market clears the OEW 1187 pivot there should be little resistance, except for a pause at 1200, up to the OEW 1222 pivot. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net gain of 2.2%. All remain in uptrends. The SSEC (China) soared 8.5%, while the NIKK (Japan) lagged -0.9%.
European markets were all higher on the week (+1.7%) and improving. Four of the five we track are in confirmed uptrends. The DAX (Germany) led +3.2% and the FTSE (England) lagged +0.8%.
The Commodity equity group were all higher for a net gain of 1.0%. All remain in uptrends. The Dow Jones World index is uptrending, made new bull market highs, and gained 1.2% on the week.
COMMODITIES
Bonds took a breather this week after four consecutive weekly gains: -0.9%. 10YR yields dropped to 2.33% on monday then turned higher to finish the week at 2.58%. There is a positive divergence on the weekly yield chart indicating a potential new uptrend in yields may be unfolding. The current downtrend has lasted an unusually long six months.
Crude continues to uptrend but lost 1.5% on the week - all of it on friday.
Gold hit another all time high this week at $1,387 and Silver nearly hit $25. While they and Platinum remain in uptrends, there is a noticeable negative divergence of all three daily charts. After such a big rally a pullback from current levels would not be surprising.
The USD continued its decline this week losing 0.2%. It has declined for five straight weeks. The USD, however, is displaying a positive divergence of its daily charts. After a four month downtrend it's due for a bounce, or even a new uptrend. Technically, we could see USD strength, Bond weakness, and Gold weakness in this upcoming week.
NEXT WEEK
Monday kicks off the economic week with the Industrial production report at 9:15, and at 10:00 the NAHB housing price index. On tuesday we have Housing starts/Building permits. Then on wednesday, the weekly Mortgage applications and the FED's Beige book. Thursday ends the economic week with BEA leading indicators, the Philly FED and the weekly Jobless claims. As for the FED. We have two speeches scheduled for tuesday. The first by FED chairman Bernanke in Fairfax, VA. at the market close, and the second by FED governor Duke at NYU in NYC in the evening. Best to you and yours this weekend and upcoming week.
CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Stock market possibly cresting before October 25 Bradley model "turn date" window
Various stock market analysts refer to the Bradley "cycles" siderograph model from time to time, and there's another "turn date" time window approaching so let's review it. The most important thing to know about the Bradley model is that the identified dates are not necessarily market highs or lows, but dates when the market is likely to turn. Also be aware, the turn might only be temporary! Finally, some of the turn dates are more important than others. The October 25 date is not one of the important ones so its effects are more likely to be muted. Also, the dates are considered to operate within plus or minus 7 days. So looking back, we might even have a debate about whether it produces a low or a high! Well, this one does have some likelihood of being a low. I say this because the October 18-20 time frame is mentioned as a probable low by "Parker B" (@PositionSizing) whose good technical analysis is being posted sometimes now by Terry Laundry at Terry's T Theory website (http://www.ttheory.com/, see link in the sites list at right), on the basis of studying advance/decline data. And Andre Gratian whose Market Turning Points updates are featured here regularly (see his site also, in the list at right, and his update posted here Monday evening) has identified a cycle low expected to occur next week too. So this gives me more confidence to point out this Bradley turn date time window as well.
I've written about the Bradley model several times before, including in this post: Stock market cycles on Bradley model: how to use and not use this forecasting info (11/24/09); use the "Cycles on Bradley model" to see prior posts referring to this model. One of the most avid Bradley model cycles analysts is Manfred Zimmel, who writes about it at his http://www.amanita.at/ website. Manfred publishes a public version (see below), but don't rely on it too heavily - he also publishes an elite version (in which he incorporates his own refinements) that must be paid for and clearly Manfred feels his own proprietary version is better.* I sure hope so, because the public version doesn't map out a good stock market forecast, even though the turn dates do typically correspond to SOME kind of a stock market turn!
*I will tell you, that back in the March 2009 time frame, Manfred was calling for a magnificant stock market rally to last a long time. Okay - he was right!!
Manfred has also commented at least once, that his public version may work better for the oil price. Well, once again I don't know that we can rely on that for future forecasting purposes - but it is interesting to consider, at least if you're trading oil futures or ETF's (or maybe oil companies).
So, now you know a few things about this mysterious "Bradley model" that people talk about, and click that link to my prior post to research more information about it. Above all, please don't take the graphic depiction (copyright Manfred Zimmel, below) as a forecast - just be aware of the turn dates, and that any turns might only last a relatively short amount of time. The November 15-16 turn date will be more significant, as Manfred marked it in bold. Regular readers of this blog know that's a time frame we're interested in because of Terry Laundry's T Theory (tm) work currently suggesting a crest in the November 6-10 time frame. While there are others (including recently Raymond Merriman) thinking the market will march higher into March 2011, it's possible the market will indeed crest in early-to-mid-November. And then we'll see whether or not it can recover afterward to move higher or if that'll be that.
Speaking of the time frame into early/mid-November, here's another chart I marked up, it's the Dow Jones Industrial Average and I posted it earlier this evening at my UBTNB3 blog at this post: Cyclicality in Dow Jones Industrials. I won't repeat everything about it here, you can click that link to see what I'm saying about it. The chart below says some of it - there's a certain rough periodicity that looks like it may go along with that early/mid-November time frame:
I've written about the Bradley model several times before, including in this post: Stock market cycles on Bradley model: how to use and not use this forecasting info (11/24/09); use the "Cycles on Bradley model" to see prior posts referring to this model. One of the most avid Bradley model cycles analysts is Manfred Zimmel, who writes about it at his http://www.amanita.at/ website. Manfred publishes a public version (see below), but don't rely on it too heavily - he also publishes an elite version (in which he incorporates his own refinements) that must be paid for and clearly Manfred feels his own proprietary version is better.* I sure hope so, because the public version doesn't map out a good stock market forecast, even though the turn dates do typically correspond to SOME kind of a stock market turn!
*I will tell you, that back in the March 2009 time frame, Manfred was calling for a magnificant stock market rally to last a long time. Okay - he was right!!
Manfred has also commented at least once, that his public version may work better for the oil price. Well, once again I don't know that we can rely on that for future forecasting purposes - but it is interesting to consider, at least if you're trading oil futures or ETF's (or maybe oil companies).
So, now you know a few things about this mysterious "Bradley model" that people talk about, and click that link to my prior post to research more information about it. Above all, please don't take the graphic depiction (copyright Manfred Zimmel, below) as a forecast - just be aware of the turn dates, and that any turns might only last a relatively short amount of time. The November 15-16 turn date will be more significant, as Manfred marked it in bold. Regular readers of this blog know that's a time frame we're interested in because of Terry Laundry's T Theory (tm) work currently suggesting a crest in the November 6-10 time frame. While there are others (including recently Raymond Merriman) thinking the market will march higher into March 2011, it's possible the market will indeed crest in early-to-mid-November. And then we'll see whether or not it can recover afterward to move higher or if that'll be that.
Speaking of the time frame into early/mid-November, here's another chart I marked up, it's the Dow Jones Industrial Average and I posted it earlier this evening at my UBTNB3 blog at this post: Cyclicality in Dow Jones Industrials. I won't repeat everything about it here, you can click that link to see what I'm saying about it. The chart below says some of it - there's a certain rough periodicity that looks like it may go along with that early/mid-November time frame:
Friday, October 8, 2010
Don't let bullish-cycling stock market run you over as it marches higher along wall of worry: Raymond Merriman's forecast change commentary
Pay attention folks: we've seen Andre Gratian turn bullish in his Turning Points weeks ago, then Tony Caldaro confirm bullishness with his Objective Elliott Wave. Now Raymond Merriman is putting out an important alert about his changed, bullish view of the stock market's current cycle. I've already said that Fibonacci levels are being pushed in a way that really tests this. While we're still thinking a low into the day(s) immediately following next Friday's opex, we've also talked another high level in early or mid-November and I've pointed out if that pokes new highs for the year that'll be quite bullish. Raymond Merriman's update this evening contains an important re-analysis of his cycles pointing to a high early next year. I can't determine yet how this may (or not) reconcile with Terry Laundry's T Theory (which I also like very much, and which talks about downward after the 2nd week in November) .... But clearly the market is resilient ... So read on!
For those who may not be as familiar with Ray's work, we appreciate it because his perspective on the market cycles, economy, and even political climate is truly unique. He always has remarkable insights to share. We'll see what he's saying in his public comments this weekend, incorporating his cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning October 11, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
Introductory Comments
We are now approaching the end of the powerful September 4-October 8 time band of eleven important geocosmic signatures. The most important were the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of September 18, Sun-Jupiter opposition of September 21, and the Venus retrograde of October 8. All of these are Level One signatures, as discussed in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” A Level One signature has an historical correlation of at least 67% to primary or greater cycles in stocks, within an orb of 12 trading days (usually much less). As noted in the introductory comments, several stock markets in Europe made their cycle highs on September 21, which was the midpoint of this time band. Others were making new highs at the end of last week, as the Libra new moon and Venus retrograde signatures unfolded (October 7-8). On Monday, the two-day Sagittarius Factor unfolds, which can result in a spillover of the trend from the end of last week. But it is a powerful mutable lunar cycle, so reversals can also commence then.
Review and Preview
First of all, I would like to thank all readers and subscribers in Argentina and Brazil who made my recent trip such a success. It was exciting to be in Buenos Aires as their Merval Index soared to new all-time highs, and in Rio de Janeiro, where the current run up in that country’s Bovespa equity index is at its highest level since April.
Since our last column two weeks ago, equity prices around the world have continued their strong rallies which started in late August. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, multi-month highs were noted in all indices we follow. The stellar performer, however, was the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which on Friday raced above 23,000, its highest level since November 2009.
In Europe, the London FTSE also soared to new multi-month highs, hitting 5707 on Thursday’s new moon. This took out it prior high of 5635 on September 21, but not its yearly high of 5833 on April 16. However, neither the Amsterdam AEX, German DAX, nor Zurich SMI indices took out their highs of September 21, thus setting up a potential case of intermarket bearish divergence as Venus turns retrograde. Russia’s MIXEX index did take out the September 21 highs, similar to the FTSE.
In the Americas, the4 Merval index of Argentina made a new all time high last week, and Brazil’s Bovespa soared to a new 6-month high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed above the 11,000 mark on Friday for the first time since early May. The NASDAQ Composite briefly went above 2400, something it also barely accomplished on September 30 and October 5.
Last week was significant for precious metals and currencies too. On October 7, Gold made a new all-time high at 1366, while Silver peaked at 2356, its highest level since the heady days of 1980. The culprit for this move was the collapsing U.S. Dollar, which fell to a new all-time low against the Swiss Franc, and another 15-year low against the Japanese Yen.
Short-Term Geocosmics
We are now approaching the end of the powerful September 4-October 8 time band of eleven important geocosmic signatures. The most important were the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of September 18, Sun-Jupiter opposition of September 21, and the Venus retrograde of October 8. All of these are Level One signatures, as discussed in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” A Level One signature has an historical correlation of at least 67% to primary or greater cycles in stocks, within an orb of 12 trading days (usually much less). As noted in the introductory comments, several stock markets in Europe made their cycle highs on September 21, which was the midpoint of this time band. Others were making new highs at the end of last week, as the Libra new moon and Venus retrograde signatures unfolded (October 7-8). On Monday, the two-day Sagittarius Factor unfolds, which can result in a spillover of the trend from the end of last week. But it is a powerful mutable lunar cycle, so reversals can also commence then.
For Financial Astrologers, however, the most important factor happening right now is Venus turning retrograde in Scorpio, and its conjunction to Mars, also in Scorpio. Venus pertains to currency and assets of value. It rules Taurus, the sign of money and wealth. But Scorpio is its opposite sign, which means it is in its “fall” here. It is weaker. The desire to appreciate one’s net worth is Venus and Taurus. But Scorpio and its ruler Mars pertain to the accumulation of debt. For some reason, the USA Dollar has a tendency to go down when Mars is in Scorpio, and precious metals tend to rise sharply. It is happening again.
But Venus retrograde is a powerful reversal signature all by itself. Historically it has a higher correlation to primary cycle crests than troughs, although the last time it occurred was March 6, 2009, which was exactly the day of the 72-year cycle trough in the DJIA. Every fifth Venus retrograde happens in the same part of the zodiac, and that occurs every 8 years. The last Venus retrograde to take place in mid-Scorpio was on October 10, 2002, the exact date of the 4-year cycle trough that ended the bear market after the dot com bubble. This time it is not a trough (low in price). If it is to correlate with a reversal, it will be from a primary cycle crest, since prices of many indices are at or near their highest levels since the lows of May 20-July 6, depending on which index you look at. If the market doesn’t reverse here, than this becomes one of the 22% cases. That is, the historical rate of frequency for a major reversal here is 78%. How far and how long such a reversal might be in effect depends upon many factors that we will discuss in this week’s MMA Cycles Report. But for now, let’s just remember that in the past, there are instances when a high around the new moon of Libra would be followed by a sharp decline to the full moon two weeks later. And that happens along with Venus turning retrograde. Watch for signs of changing economic, monetary, and/or fiscal policies, which will spur changes in price direction.
Longer-Term Thoughts
I was wrong. Yes, I know it doesn’t happen too often, but when it does happen, it is already too often. It is the curse of every market analyst. You look at charts, you look at your numbers, and you are aware of the probabilities because you have done your homework and formal research studies. And you go with the probabilities that are at least 80% based on historical instances. But every so often, the less than 20% probability is the one that happens. And when the scenario you expected in fact does not happen, you have to start considering that the opposite is happening. Or else you are under a Uranus aspect, in which case no matter what you predict, it will not happen quite as you thought.
So here I am – master financial analyst, master Financial Astrologer, master cycles analyst and legend in his own mind – quite convinced that stock markets are headed down to a longer-term cycle low due at the end of this year. After all, that low on July 2. 2010, was too late to be a 50-week cycle trough as measured from March 6, 2009. It was 69 weeks, and only 8% of historical cases saw the 50-week cycle bottom later than 67 weeks. Who would choose to go with an 8% probability? The 50-week cycle had to be that low of February 5 (48th week). That meant that this was a newer 50-week cycle, and it would not be due to bottom until after September 2010, which was just right for several other longer-term cycles that were due. But the 8% probability did happen. Did I ever mention the trap of arrogance or dogmatism to market traders?
So there I am, trading and positioning my own portfolio as if we are in the last phase of an older 50-week cycle, when actually we are in the first phase of a newer one. For those of you unfamiliar with cycle studies, this is significant. The last phase of a cycle is almost always bearish. It is the most bearish part of a cycle that has been bullish. The first phase of a cycle is almost always bullish. Your strategy in the last phase of cycle is much different than in the first phase. In the last phase, you strategy is to sell rallies. In the first phase, your strategy is to buy dips. That’s the mechanics of a cycles’ analyst and trader.
But what about Financial Astrology? What did it say about this past summer? As expressed in the Forecast 2010 book, my bias was that the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of late May and early June would commence an extremely speculative market environment, in which assets (like stocks and Gold) would be vulnerable to very sharp rallies. This was to be “asset inflation gone wild.” Based on the Jupiter cycle over the past 140+ years, the stock market was expected to soar into early 2011 (see Forecast 2010 book). But that didn’t happen immediately after Jupiter and Uranus entered Aries, which are all speculative dynamics. It didn’t really start until late August. Why then and not late May – early June? Well, now we come to the part about Financial Astrology that provides a learning experience – for me and all Financial Astrologers. We are all students.
The market didn’t take off from late May-early June when the wild and speculative combination of Jupiter and Uranus entered the impulsive fire sign of Aries, because at the same time Saturn was in opposition to that Jupiter-Uranus in Aries (and all squared Pluto in Capricorn). Saturn pertains to the principles of “fear and restriction.” Fear entered the market community as investors sought the safety of U.S. treasuries, and not stocks, which are more speculative. And the hard aspects from Saturn transits didn’t end until…. August 21. And then the explosion in assets like stocks and precious metals began. Investors did, after all, leave the paltry yields offered from Treasuries, for the more robust growth exhibited in stocks and metals, just as forecasted, only about two months later and right after Saturn began its separation from the midsection of the Cardinal Climax.
Now that Saturn is out of the picture of aspecting Jupiter and Uranus until March 2011, there is really little that I see in Financial Astrology to stop the asset inflation bandwagon – other than perhaps a few weeks of correction during Venus retrograde. In the meantime, I lick my wounds for treating this as the last phase (bearish) of a longer-term cycle when it is clear now that it is the first phase (bullish) of a newer cycle. Unfortunately, I – as a mere mortal – have cycles too. Fortunately, as a mere mortal who tries to learn from past experiences, I don’t put my life style at risk in the market place. And I make the necessary adjustments once I see the light (unless it blinds me). Arrogance and fixed mindedness are, in the end, killers for successful trading.
Now if the central bankers and politicians could also learn from long term cycles of the past that have now returned, and if they could also see the light and get their foot unstuck from the accelerator of rampant spending and never-ending stimulus, we might come out of this economic “twilight zone.” Why does this investment climate remind me so much of the late 1990’s and the dot com bubble? Let’s ask that question again in the first part of 2010. Until then, enjoy this ride, despite the bad news and despite the negative election campaigning. The market will like these “walls of worry” to climb, especially now that Saturn has moved on his way and stops pushing things down.
In the meantime, Federal regulators closed Shoreline Bank in Washington this past week, the 129th bank to fail this year. It’s closing in on last year’s record 140 bank closings.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, and attachment via direct emails, for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only. These reports are included in the Japanese, German, and Dutch translated MMA Cycles Report respectively. New yearly (or renewing) subscribers to these reports will receive a free copy of the Forecast 2010 book while supplies last (see below). You can also qualify for a special discount on a yearly subscription if at the same time you Purchase the 2011 Forecast Book.
Three weeks remaining to reserve a copy of the Forecast 2011 book at the special pre-publication price! We are pleased to announce no changes in the special pre-publication rate at $45.00 if ordered before October 31 (plus postage – same as last year). After that, $55.00. We are also offering a special 10% discount rate for our subscription services to those who pre-order Forecast 2011 before October 31. This is a great deal, for in the words of one of our daily subscribers recently, “I don't know whether you want to hear/take any comments at all but I wanted to say that, so far, I am a very happy camper and the only thing which I think that I did wrong with subscribing to your service that I did it TOO LATE! What was I thinking....? :-)" – R. Rood, Lugano, Switzerland, futures trader and technical analyst, former cash grain trader.
The Forecast 2011 Book can be pre-ordered in several languages, at attractive pre-publication rates, through the following MMA publishers, which also publish our free weekly columns in their respective languages:
Chinese: at http://www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
Russian: at http://www.urania.ru/
Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com
And now we have a special first-time opportunity being developed. This year’s Forecast Book will be available in electronic book format. The details are still being worked out, but we expect to have this format available this year, also around December 15. This will be a great feature for our overseas readers, for now they will be able to save on the high postage costs, and be assured that the copy of their book will actually arrive (on line), something that the U.S. postal service has not been very adept at these past few years (they lose or cause unacceptably long delays in receipt of about 10% of the books we ship overseas,).
For a review of the forecasts from the Forecast 2010 book, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to about the third or fourth article on the opening screen. Or go directly to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/scorecard-for-forecasts-2010/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.” Order now with the Forecast 2011 Book and receive a special 10% rate reduction through October.
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won’t manage other people’s money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one’s portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to MMA services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O’Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 247-0600. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the “Best in-house fund of funds” in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner’s funds, you may contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
January 14-16, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman, to be followed by a special meeting with MMA Subscribers (at no cost). For more details, go to www.astrodata.ch.
April 28 and 30, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. Details soon. This will be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States.
September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com
For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:
Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)
For those who may not be as familiar with Ray's work, we appreciate it because his perspective on the market cycles, economy, and even political climate is truly unique. He always has remarkable insights to share. We'll see what he's saying in his public comments this weekend, incorporating his cycles analysis with his financial astrology for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities - for commentaries that are always fascinating. Here's Ray Merriman's set of public preview comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst MMACycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning October 11, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
Introductory Comments
We are now approaching the end of the powerful September 4-October 8 time band of eleven important geocosmic signatures. The most important were the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of September 18, Sun-Jupiter opposition of September 21, and the Venus retrograde of October 8. All of these are Level One signatures, as discussed in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” A Level One signature has an historical correlation of at least 67% to primary or greater cycles in stocks, within an orb of 12 trading days (usually much less). As noted in the introductory comments, several stock markets in Europe made their cycle highs on September 21, which was the midpoint of this time band. Others were making new highs at the end of last week, as the Libra new moon and Venus retrograde signatures unfolded (October 7-8). On Monday, the two-day Sagittarius Factor unfolds, which can result in a spillover of the trend from the end of last week. But it is a powerful mutable lunar cycle, so reversals can also commence then.
Review and Preview
First of all, I would like to thank all readers and subscribers in Argentina and Brazil who made my recent trip such a success. It was exciting to be in Buenos Aires as their Merval Index soared to new all-time highs, and in Rio de Janeiro, where the current run up in that country’s Bovespa equity index is at its highest level since April.
Since our last column two weeks ago, equity prices around the world have continued their strong rallies which started in late August. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, multi-month highs were noted in all indices we follow. The stellar performer, however, was the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which on Friday raced above 23,000, its highest level since November 2009.
In Europe, the London FTSE also soared to new multi-month highs, hitting 5707 on Thursday’s new moon. This took out it prior high of 5635 on September 21, but not its yearly high of 5833 on April 16. However, neither the Amsterdam AEX, German DAX, nor Zurich SMI indices took out their highs of September 21, thus setting up a potential case of intermarket bearish divergence as Venus turns retrograde. Russia’s MIXEX index did take out the September 21 highs, similar to the FTSE.
In the Americas, the4 Merval index of Argentina made a new all time high last week, and Brazil’s Bovespa soared to a new 6-month high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed above the 11,000 mark on Friday for the first time since early May. The NASDAQ Composite briefly went above 2400, something it also barely accomplished on September 30 and October 5.
Last week was significant for precious metals and currencies too. On October 7, Gold made a new all-time high at 1366, while Silver peaked at 2356, its highest level since the heady days of 1980. The culprit for this move was the collapsing U.S. Dollar, which fell to a new all-time low against the Swiss Franc, and another 15-year low against the Japanese Yen.
Short-Term Geocosmics
We are now approaching the end of the powerful September 4-October 8 time band of eleven important geocosmic signatures. The most important were the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of September 18, Sun-Jupiter opposition of September 21, and the Venus retrograde of October 8. All of these are Level One signatures, as discussed in the studies of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” A Level One signature has an historical correlation of at least 67% to primary or greater cycles in stocks, within an orb of 12 trading days (usually much less). As noted in the introductory comments, several stock markets in Europe made their cycle highs on September 21, which was the midpoint of this time band. Others were making new highs at the end of last week, as the Libra new moon and Venus retrograde signatures unfolded (October 7-8). On Monday, the two-day Sagittarius Factor unfolds, which can result in a spillover of the trend from the end of last week. But it is a powerful mutable lunar cycle, so reversals can also commence then.
For Financial Astrologers, however, the most important factor happening right now is Venus turning retrograde in Scorpio, and its conjunction to Mars, also in Scorpio. Venus pertains to currency and assets of value. It rules Taurus, the sign of money and wealth. But Scorpio is its opposite sign, which means it is in its “fall” here. It is weaker. The desire to appreciate one’s net worth is Venus and Taurus. But Scorpio and its ruler Mars pertain to the accumulation of debt. For some reason, the USA Dollar has a tendency to go down when Mars is in Scorpio, and precious metals tend to rise sharply. It is happening again.
But Venus retrograde is a powerful reversal signature all by itself. Historically it has a higher correlation to primary cycle crests than troughs, although the last time it occurred was March 6, 2009, which was exactly the day of the 72-year cycle trough in the DJIA. Every fifth Venus retrograde happens in the same part of the zodiac, and that occurs every 8 years. The last Venus retrograde to take place in mid-Scorpio was on October 10, 2002, the exact date of the 4-year cycle trough that ended the bear market after the dot com bubble. This time it is not a trough (low in price). If it is to correlate with a reversal, it will be from a primary cycle crest, since prices of many indices are at or near their highest levels since the lows of May 20-July 6, depending on which index you look at. If the market doesn’t reverse here, than this becomes one of the 22% cases. That is, the historical rate of frequency for a major reversal here is 78%. How far and how long such a reversal might be in effect depends upon many factors that we will discuss in this week’s MMA Cycles Report. But for now, let’s just remember that in the past, there are instances when a high around the new moon of Libra would be followed by a sharp decline to the full moon two weeks later. And that happens along with Venus turning retrograde. Watch for signs of changing economic, monetary, and/or fiscal policies, which will spur changes in price direction.
Longer-Term Thoughts
I was wrong. Yes, I know it doesn’t happen too often, but when it does happen, it is already too often. It is the curse of every market analyst. You look at charts, you look at your numbers, and you are aware of the probabilities because you have done your homework and formal research studies. And you go with the probabilities that are at least 80% based on historical instances. But every so often, the less than 20% probability is the one that happens. And when the scenario you expected in fact does not happen, you have to start considering that the opposite is happening. Or else you are under a Uranus aspect, in which case no matter what you predict, it will not happen quite as you thought.
So here I am – master financial analyst, master Financial Astrologer, master cycles analyst and legend in his own mind – quite convinced that stock markets are headed down to a longer-term cycle low due at the end of this year. After all, that low on July 2. 2010, was too late to be a 50-week cycle trough as measured from March 6, 2009. It was 69 weeks, and only 8% of historical cases saw the 50-week cycle bottom later than 67 weeks. Who would choose to go with an 8% probability? The 50-week cycle had to be that low of February 5 (48th week). That meant that this was a newer 50-week cycle, and it would not be due to bottom until after September 2010, which was just right for several other longer-term cycles that were due. But the 8% probability did happen. Did I ever mention the trap of arrogance or dogmatism to market traders?
So there I am, trading and positioning my own portfolio as if we are in the last phase of an older 50-week cycle, when actually we are in the first phase of a newer one. For those of you unfamiliar with cycle studies, this is significant. The last phase of a cycle is almost always bearish. It is the most bearish part of a cycle that has been bullish. The first phase of a cycle is almost always bullish. Your strategy in the last phase of cycle is much different than in the first phase. In the last phase, you strategy is to sell rallies. In the first phase, your strategy is to buy dips. That’s the mechanics of a cycles’ analyst and trader.
But what about Financial Astrology? What did it say about this past summer? As expressed in the Forecast 2010 book, my bias was that the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of late May and early June would commence an extremely speculative market environment, in which assets (like stocks and Gold) would be vulnerable to very sharp rallies. This was to be “asset inflation gone wild.” Based on the Jupiter cycle over the past 140+ years, the stock market was expected to soar into early 2011 (see Forecast 2010 book). But that didn’t happen immediately after Jupiter and Uranus entered Aries, which are all speculative dynamics. It didn’t really start until late August. Why then and not late May – early June? Well, now we come to the part about Financial Astrology that provides a learning experience – for me and all Financial Astrologers. We are all students.
The market didn’t take off from late May-early June when the wild and speculative combination of Jupiter and Uranus entered the impulsive fire sign of Aries, because at the same time Saturn was in opposition to that Jupiter-Uranus in Aries (and all squared Pluto in Capricorn). Saturn pertains to the principles of “fear and restriction.” Fear entered the market community as investors sought the safety of U.S. treasuries, and not stocks, which are more speculative. And the hard aspects from Saturn transits didn’t end until…. August 21. And then the explosion in assets like stocks and precious metals began. Investors did, after all, leave the paltry yields offered from Treasuries, for the more robust growth exhibited in stocks and metals, just as forecasted, only about two months later and right after Saturn began its separation from the midsection of the Cardinal Climax.
Now that Saturn is out of the picture of aspecting Jupiter and Uranus until March 2011, there is really little that I see in Financial Astrology to stop the asset inflation bandwagon – other than perhaps a few weeks of correction during Venus retrograde. In the meantime, I lick my wounds for treating this as the last phase (bearish) of a longer-term cycle when it is clear now that it is the first phase (bullish) of a newer cycle. Unfortunately, I – as a mere mortal – have cycles too. Fortunately, as a mere mortal who tries to learn from past experiences, I don’t put my life style at risk in the market place. And I make the necessary adjustments once I see the light (unless it blinds me). Arrogance and fixed mindedness are, in the end, killers for successful trading.
Now if the central bankers and politicians could also learn from long term cycles of the past that have now returned, and if they could also see the light and get their foot unstuck from the accelerator of rampant spending and never-ending stimulus, we might come out of this economic “twilight zone.” Why does this investment climate remind me so much of the late 1990’s and the dot com bubble? Let’s ask that question again in the first part of 2010. Until then, enjoy this ride, despite the bad news and despite the negative election campaigning. The market will like these “walls of worry” to climb, especially now that Saturn has moved on his way and stops pushing things down.
In the meantime, Federal regulators closed Shoreline Bank in Washington this past week, the 129th bank to fail this year. It’s closing in on last year’s record 140 bank closings.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – will come out this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, and attachment via direct emails, for subscribers. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only. These reports are included in the Japanese, German, and Dutch translated MMA Cycles Report respectively. New yearly (or renewing) subscribers to these reports will receive a free copy of the Forecast 2010 book while supplies last (see below). You can also qualify for a special discount on a yearly subscription if at the same time you Purchase the 2011 Forecast Book.
Three weeks remaining to reserve a copy of the Forecast 2011 book at the special pre-publication price! We are pleased to announce no changes in the special pre-publication rate at $45.00 if ordered before October 31 (plus postage – same as last year). After that, $55.00. We are also offering a special 10% discount rate for our subscription services to those who pre-order Forecast 2011 before October 31. This is a great deal, for in the words of one of our daily subscribers recently, “I don't know whether you want to hear/take any comments at all but I wanted to say that, so far, I am a very happy camper and the only thing which I think that I did wrong with subscribing to your service that I did it TOO LATE! What was I thinking....? :-)" – R. Rood, Lugano, Switzerland, futures trader and technical analyst, former cash grain trader.
The Forecast 2011 Book can be pre-ordered in several languages, at attractive pre-publication rates, through the following MMA publishers, which also publish our free weekly columns in their respective languages:
Chinese: at http://www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
Russian: at http://www.urania.ru/
Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com
And now we have a special first-time opportunity being developed. This year’s Forecast Book will be available in electronic book format. The details are still being worked out, but we expect to have this format available this year, also around December 15. This will be a great feature for our overseas readers, for now they will be able to save on the high postage costs, and be assured that the copy of their book will actually arrive (on line), something that the U.S. postal service has not been very adept at these past few years (they lose or cause unacceptably long delays in receipt of about 10% of the books we ship overseas,).
For a review of the forecasts from the Forecast 2010 book, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to about the third or fourth article on the opening screen. Or go directly to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/scorecard-for-forecasts-2010/.
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.” Order now with the Forecast 2011 Book and receive a special 10% rate reduction through October.
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won’t manage other people’s money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one’s portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to MMA services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O’Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 247-0600. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the “Best in-house fund of funds” in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner’s funds, you may contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
January 14-16, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman, to be followed by a special meeting with MMA Subscribers (at no cost). For more details, go to www.astrodata.ch.
April 28 and 30, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. Details soon. This will be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States.
September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2010; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com
For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:
Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)
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