Choppiness & pullback still consistent with bull market: Tony Caldaro's 7/21/12 OEW update

If the markets seem off-kilter to you, Tony Caldaro has some great explanations of where they're headed and why (thanks again Tony!) Tony discusses U.S. & global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, crude oil and other commodities, precious metals, and many individual stocks in his publics charts list. Use his charts link at the bottom to view all of his public charts. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
July 21, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

Another interesting week. The market started the week by heading lower into early tuesday. Then rallied to new uptrend highs on thursday before pulling back on friday's Opex. Spain's IBEX dropped 5.6% on friday, assisting the SPX pullback, as their 10YR yields pushed over 7% again. Nevertheless, for the week the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Foreign markets were mixed with Asia +0.8%, Europe -1.3%, and the DJ World index +0.5%. Economic reports for the week were split with 7 improving and 7 declining. On the uptick: NY FED, CPI, housing starts, NAHB, industrial production, and the WLEI plus Philly FED improved. On the downtick: retail sales, business inventories, capacity utilization, building permits, weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, and leading indicators. Next week we get reports on housing, durable goods, and Q2 GDP.

LONG TERM: bull market

It has been said, it is easy to be bullish when markets are rising and then to turn bearish when they start to decline. Yet with nearly 85% of the international markets we track in bear markets, and only the US, and possibly England and Switzerland, in long term uptrend ends. How does one easily determine which are rising and which have started declines?

While some of the major US indices, in recent months, have offered mixed signals in their wave patterns. The bellwether DOW continues to track this bull market with clarity and precise waves. Our long term count, from the March 2009 bear market low, remains the same. A multi-year Cycle wave [1] began at that low which should divide into five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed at SPX 1371 and 1075 in 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since then. Within each Primary wave there are five Major waves. Notice how Major wave 1 of Primary I subdivided into five Intermediate waves, and Major 1 of Primary III has done likewise. Major wave 3 should now be underway from the SPX 1267 Major wave 2 low. We are anticipating Major 3 will be a multi-month uptrend which may last until year end, and carry the SPX up to the OEW 1499 pivot.

MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend

For the past several weeks we have been vacillating back and forth between new bull markets highs ahead or a retest of the SPX 1267 low. We have been observing a choppy type of uptrend from that low, and knew the 2-year Tech cycle low was due soon. This week, tuesday, the SOX index appeared to put in that low.

When one compares the SOX index with the SPX it is easily seen that one does not get very far without the other. When the SOX is rising the SPX rises with it. Yet, when the SOX stalls or heads lower, the SPX goes sideways or declines as well. Notice the action in the SOX/SPX since their coincident June lows. They both started off uptrending, but the SPX became quite choppy when the SOX stalled and started downtrending. So which index is leading the other. The answer to that question depends on the 2-year cycle.

When the 2-year cycle bottoms the SOX takes over leadership, driving specifically the Tech stocks higher and general market, until the upward surge off that low ends. This can take anywhere from 6 – 12 months. Then the general market takes over leadership. Compare the two indices after each 2-year cycle low on their weekly charts from 2002.

After the SOX index bottoms it usually surges about 8+% in a few days. Then it pulls back losing about half of that gain before resuming the new uptrend. Tuesday to thursday's surge was +8.3%, and friday it began its pullback. It's acting like the typical kickoff after a 2-year cycle low.

This would help explain the overall choppiness in the general market during this uptrend. The Tech cycle was bottoming while the Cyclicals were trying to rise. Should the Sox index, semiconductors, start rising as expected the SPX uptrend should start to appear more impulsive. If not, and there is another low ahead. We would then expect the SPX to retest just the late June low at 1309, before resuming the uptrend.

We recently completed a 50 year study on our WROC buy signal. Thank you Alan for the data. These signals usually occur prior to an OEW uptrend confirmation. The latest one occurred in June. Over the entire period 1962-2012 they were accurate nearly 90% of the time. During a bull market their accuracy rises to 96%. We also found, during bull markets WROC buys signals only occurred 11% of the time during B wave uptrends. So the chance of this uptrend being a B wave, of an ongoing Major wave 2 correction, is only 11%.

SHORT TERM

Medium term support for the SPX is now at the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term support is at the 1363 pivot, SPX 1342/47 and 1333/38. Short term resistance is at the OEW 1372 and 1386 pivots, plus SPX 1402/03. Short term momentum ended the week quite oversold.

During the week we upgraded our projections, for this uptrend, based upon the activity in the SOX index. After reviewing the charts this weekend we have also upgraded our labeling on the SPX chart, from Minor and Minute waves 1 and 2, to Intermediate and Minor waves 1 and 2. The rally was SPX 1267-1363 was sufficient for an Intermediate wave i advance, and Intermediate wave iii should now be underway from SPX 1309. Minor wave 1 can be counted from SPX 1309-1375, with Minor 2 at 1325. Minor wave 3, of Int. iii, should be currently underway. The other count we are tracking, if the SOX 2-year low is not in place yet, is posted on the DOW charts.

Should the uptrend resume after this pullback, as expected, we can now project a Minor wave 3 target near SPX 1432 (Minor 3 = 1.62 Minor 1). This nears the range of the OEW 1440 pivot. Then an Intermediate wave iii target near SPX 1464 (Int. iii = 1.62 Int. i). Then an uptrend high for Major wave 3 near SPX 1507 (Int iii-v = 2.0 Int. i). This nears the range of the OEW 1499 pivot. This all depends on how the SOX index responds to its recent low. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets gained 0.8% on the week. All indices, but China, are in uptrends.

The European markets lost 1.3% on the week. Mostly due to declines in Spain and Italy on friday. All indices still uptrending, with the two noted as a possible exception.

The Commodity equity group gained 0.7% on the week. All but Brazil are in uptrends.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 0.5% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain quite resilient despite the uptrend in stocks and commodities. Still uptrending and gained 0.2% on the week.

Crude continues to uptrend and gained 5.7% on the week.

Gold remains in a choppy uptrend, which has not made a higher high since June, and lost 0.3% on the week.

The USD is still uptrending gaining 0.2% on the week. While the EUR keeps downtrending, losing 0.7% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday kicks off the economic week with the FHFA housing price index. On wednesday we'll get New homes sales. Then on thursday weekly Jobless claims, Durable goods orders and Pending home sales. On friday, Q2 GDP (estimates +1.5%) and Consumer sentiment. FED governor Raskin gives a speech monday night, and FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech tuesday morning. The next FOMC meeting is tuesday/wednesday July 31 and August 1st. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Mercury retrograde & markets perplexing investors: Raymond Merriman's 7/23/12 week comments

If you wonder about why the markets can seem very perverse sometimes; such as the VIX being very low while Treasury notes and grains are pushing new highs - be open to answers from financial astrology! We are pleased to start our weekend with Raymond Merriman's unique insights and preview comments (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 23, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

If you are an equities trader, then the past few days have not been "shock and awe." This was our message two weeks ago pertaining to the transit of Mars entering into a T-square with Uranus and Pluto (July 17-18), shortly after both Mercury and Uranus turned retrograde (July 13-14). This was to be the "shock." During this same time and afterwards, Mars would trine Jupiter (also on July 18) and Jupiter would form a favorable sextile to Uranus (July 21). This was to be the "awe." But in equity markets world wide as well as precious metals, it was mostly just prices trading back and forth within a rather narrow range. It wasn't very much shock and it was just a little bit of awe, as some equity markets did rise very briefly to a new monthly high before settling back at the end of last week.

However, there was considerably more action on other markets. Take grains for example. The record hot temperatures in the USA grain belt, accompanied by a lack of moisture, propelled both Corn and Soybeans to new all- time highs during these past 7 days. The nearby Soybean contract rallied to 17.77/bushel on Friday and Corn to $8.28. Food costs are going to rise sharply. But that wasn't the only record broken last week. Mortgage rates fell to an all-time low as the September contract on the Ten Year Treasury Notes soared to new highs, but the 30-year Treasury Bonds fell just shy of their contract high, in what could become a case of intermarket bearish divergence if either close in the lower half of a day's range before negating this set up. As grains and Treasuries made new highs, the Euro currency dropped to its lowest level in over 2 years on the news that Spain's banks are once again entering dire straits. So if you were looking for "shock and awe" and you weren't limiting yourself to just equities and precious metals, it was certainly there.

Equity markets around the world were up and down a lot last week (typical of Mercury retrograde) and are now posing some interesting possibilities related to the powerful geocosmic signatures that were present. Take Europe for example. On Friday, July 20, the AEX of Netherlands, DAX of Germany, and SMI of Zurich all soared to their highest levels since those lows of June 1-5. Bothe the AEX and DAX are up nearly 15% from those lows just 6-7 weeks ago. The SMI is up nearly 11%. But the London FTSE and Russian MICEX could not take out their highs of July 5, for a case of intermarket bearish divergence. The FTSE, by comparison, is up less than 10% since its low of June 1. England is apparently in worse shape than these other Euro markets. Russia's MICEX, on the other hand, was still up over 16% last week from its lows of May 24.

The situation is similar in the United States. The Dow Jones soared slight above its monthly high of 12,961 on July 5 when it attained 12,977 intraday on Thursday, July 19. But the NASDAQ Composite fell short, reaching only 2976 on July 19, slightly below its 2987 high of July 5 for a case of intermarket bearish divergence here. Both markets then sold off rather sharply on Friday to validate this signal. In South America, the Argentine Merval Index soared to 2577 on July 19, its highest level since its low of May 16. The Bovespa of Brazil, however, is well below its high of July 5 and in fact closer to its 52,271 low of June 28, for yet another case of intermarket bearish divergence, in the same region, and within close proximity of a geocosmic critical reversal zone.

Asia and the Pacific Rim were by far the most bizarre of all regions related to equity markets. The Australian All Ordinaries index surged to a new monthly high on Friday at 4245, but that represents a gain of only 5.5% from its primary bottom at 4033 on June 4. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong only got up to 19,656, well below its high of 19,835 back on July 4. But the Japanese Nikkei, India NIFTY and China's Shanghai Index all fell for most of last week, with Shanghai Composite re-testing its lows of January 6. Yet it is exhibiting a bullish oscillator divergence pattern, while the other indices are exhibiting bearish intermarket divergence patterns. Maybe it is time to buy China and sell the other indices of this region, as well as other regions. Most of those indices making highs throughout the world last week did so under falling oscillator levels.

Best Trades of the Past Week

Over the past few weekly columns, I have been inserting trading recommendations made to our subscribers in the prior week. Readers seem to like this type of information to just see how accurate these reports, based on our unique timing methods, have been in many cases.

Our best trades last week were in the stock indices. The daily report for July 18, stated for E-Mini September S&P futures, for example, "Position traders are long with a stop-loss now on a close below 1339. Let's look to exit and stand aside at 1368-1372 if offered." Aggressive traders were also long with the same stop-loss as position traders for now and advised, "But let's exit at 1368-1372 and go short there with a stop-loss on a close above 1380." Both positions had been long from 1340-142 the prior week. On July 18, the E-mini S&P rose to 1370.50. The next day it went a little higher, to 1376, and then reversed. By Friday it was under 1360. We didn't go short for position traders because Mercury is retrograde and we don't usually initiate new position trades during this time, but only short-term aggressive trades.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Last week was a perfect example of Mercury retrograde in both stock indices and precious metals. There were several days in which prices took out the daily support or resistance, only to close back above support or below resistance. This is known as "fake outs" and is a common occurrence under Mercury retrograde. It just reinforces our rule under Mercury retrograde: take profits too soon (i.e. take profits quickly, like every 1-4 days, and don't wait for your price target to get hit and don't expect a break of resistance to be a buy signal or a break of support to be a sell signal. It is just as likely to be a fake out.

Mercury will continue retrograde through August 8. For this week, it (Mercury retrograde) will form a sextile to Jupiter on July 24 and a trine to Uranus on July 25. Both of these are benign, and may give the equities a bit of a lift. Or, given that Mercury is retrograde and the rules don't always work, maybe it will not be much of a lift at all this time. There is not much else going on until July 31, except that Jupiter will sextile Uranus on Saturday, July 21 (see "Longer-Term Thoughts" below).

Longer-Term Thoughts

The longer-term planetary signature now unfolding is known as Jupiter in a waxing sextile to Uranus. We don't usually talk much about sextiles, for it is not as strong as the "hard aspects" of the conjunction, square, and opposition. And it is half the strength of the other favorable and harmonious aspect known as a trine. But it is not really a minor aspect, especially when Jupiter is involved. Unlike the trine, which is favorable in a way similar to "luck," which means "without much effort, opportunities come to you," the sextile is favorable as a result of smart thinking. It is a mental aspect, and one makes gains through good decisions and well-thought out intellectual analysis that usually turns out to be correct.

But these sextile aspects can also have a correlation to market turns, especially when Jupiter (planet of opportunity and 'good luck") is involved. Like most aspects, the sextile can either mean the end of a difficult time and the start of a favorable one, or the end of a favorable up move in markets and the start of a down move. But when we talk about aspects between Jupiter and planets beyond its orbit (like Uranus), these changes in trend don't usually happen right on the day. They can be up to six weeks away. And so it is that Jupiter will sextile Uranus on Saturday, July 21, and thus we look to the time band of six weeks surrounding right now to produce a major trend change.

Here is how this aspect is described – based on its history over the past 140 years, in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles: "This is a reliable signature for timing troughs. In eight of ten cases a 50-week or greater cycle trough occurred within 1 month of the waxing sextile between Jupiter and Uranus. In fact, even if a crest coincided, it was usually 1–3 months before the aspect… then dropped to form a 50-week or 22.5-month cycle trough within 1 month of it. Then the market would embark upon a strong 4–14 month rally. In these cases, investors may use this signature to time purchases of stocks — if a 50-week or 22.5-month cycle trough appears to be forming within 1 month of the aspect."

So as we look at the current instance of this long-term planetary signature, we note that the highest price in three years was attained on May 1, 2012, which was two months ago. If that high at 13,338 in the DJIA holds, it will become labeled as the 4-year cycle crest. This fits its past history of exhibiting such a long-term cycle crest 1-3 months prior to the aspect. But then we note that an important low formed on June 4, which was six weeks ago (or, one month). Measured from the prior low of October 4, 2011, one could say the low June 4 was within the time band of a 50-week cycle trough (range is 38-62 weeks, and that was 42 weeks). The only problem is that this 4-year cycle has not been exhibiting 50-week subcycles. So we are down to this analysis based on this aspect: if June 4 was the 50-week cycle low measured from October 4, 2011, the market would likely be up for the next 4-14 months following June 4, 2012. But if prices cannot exceed 13,338, then chances are greater that the market could fall hard into the 4-year cycle trough due late this year through early 2013 when the "Fiscal Cliff" arrives if the impending explosion in new taxes is not repealed.

Based on Uranus squaring Pluto – a perfect symbol for "falling off a fiscal cliff" due to an explosion of taxes (especially dividend and capital gains taxes) – the stock market is still fundamentally on course for a 30% or greater decline by early 2013. Most analysts think the President and Congress will come to an agreement to avoid this fiscal disaster. I wish I could be as confident. With Pluto in Capricorn square Uranus in Aries, I think it would be unwise to not take steps to protect your investment capital against such an eventuality. These are not signatures of an agreement that takes into account what is best for the country. These are signatures in which people – political leaders – are more apt to act in a manner that causes more harm and destruction than solution, due to past grievances. It's payback time. With Pluto, it could be a time of healing. But for that to happen, it means 1) overcoming past psychological patterns, 2) admission of wrongs, and 3) forgiveness. With Uranus in Aries (a potentially ruthless, self-serving, and merciless combination), these positive possibilities are nothing to hold your breathe for. Still, holding your breath can be a good thing for other reasons. Just remember to occasionally exhale.

Announcements

We are gearing up for our first workshop under the auspices of MMA's Market Timing Academy (MMTA), to take place September 15-16. This will be the pre-training course on "Beginning Principles of Financial Astrology for Financial Market Timing," taking place in Troy, Michigan, at the Management Education Center of Michigan State University. This 10-12 hour course may be attended live, in person, or via webcast televised to your computer. An archive of this workshop will be available for 30 days afterwards to those who sign up. This workshop will basically train non-astrologers in the use of reading an ephemeris, which is the table of planetary positions for any given day. This is essential to anyone who wishes to understand how to find a geocosmic critical reversal date for financial markets. It is not a difficult task, but it does require some training. This course (or audit of it) is a pre-requisite for anyone entering the MMTA market training course, which will officially begin April 6-8, 2013, and will involve 8 weekends of study – 4 weekends each in 2013 and 2014. For more information, please go to www.mmacycles.com. Or, http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/. The cost for the September 15-16 pre-training workshop is $395.00 ($300 for MMA subscribers), or $50.00 to take an Equivalency Exam for those who register by September 1. There will be an additional $50.00 late fee assessed for those who sign up afterwards. This cost will be deducted from the fee of the two-year training course to those who enroll in the MMTA 8-course program by October 15, 2012. For those who wish to enroll in the 2-year MMTA market timing course, and already know how to read an ephemeris, you will be able to audit the introductory training course in about two weeks. The equivalency exam is ready and we are simply working on a format for you to take this exam. Everyone entering MMTA must either take the introductory pre-training, or demonstrate their ability to read an ephemeris by taking the Equivalency Exam. To sign up for the Equivalency Exam please contact Amber Lundsten at ordersmma@msn.com or call 1-248-626-3034 and set up your time to take it. If you plan to come to Troy, Michigan to take the course, also contact Amber for hotel suggestions and special discount rates. If you plan to take the course via webinar, kindly let us know by September 1 (and save money). To do so, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to the bottom of the opening page titled "Introductory Workshop on Basic Principles…." We are pleased to announce that we are nearly done with the re-writing and editing of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles." We expect this book to be in print sometime in September – hopefully in time for the September 15-16 workshop. This means that the special $75.00 pre-order rate will end August 15. At that point, the normal rate of $125 (plus postage) will go into effect. To take advantage of the special pre-order discount price, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/.

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

We are also pleased to announce a new MMA Weekly report titled: MMA Weekly Treasuries, Soybeans, and Crude Oil Report. This will be a 3-5 page report offering comments, analysis, forecasts, and trading strategy for next week's market activity in the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes (Treasuries), Soybeans, and Crude Oil futures only. List of support/resistance areas, trend indicator points, geocosmic and lunar reversal points for the week, cycles phasing, and recommended buy and sell strategies. The cost is $750/yr or $250/3 months. We will offer a one-month trial subscription for $50.00, available only until August 15, as part of our introduction to this new service. Subscriptions are delivered by downloadable postings on the MMA Website, which is entered via your personal password. It is also delivered via an email attachment to all subscribers over the weekend before the market opens.

The DVD of the Denver Workshop on Financial Market Timing is still available! This financial markets workshop offers a completely unique and original perspective, integrating 1) Market Timing studies, 2) Price Objective calculations, 3) Technical Analysis, 4) Pattern Recognition studies, and 5) Trend Analysis. The primary focus of this workshop is on Market Timing Studies, particularly Cycles Analysis and Geocosmic Studies, as leading indicators that identify when to anticipate a reversal in all financial markets. Gold and the U.S. stock market are studied in great detail, especially regarding their current status. There is a wealth of timely and valuable information in this DVD, especially pertaining to the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012, lasting through March 2015, and the important Jupiter correlation to stock market cycles coming up August-November 2012 and March-May 2013. The cost for this 4-hour DVD is $180.00 plus postage. To order, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/dvd-of-boulder-workshop-on-financial-market-timing!!!/. Or call Amber at 1-248-626-3034. If you are a trader or investor who appreciates the value of market timing – especially in the next few months – this is a presentation you will not want to miss!

Our 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

EVENTS:

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, Holiday Inn, 3600 Plymouth Rd, in beautiful Ann Arbor, Michigan. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology and Financial Market Timing with Raymond Merriman on Thursday, August 2. Featuring over 20 astrologers, including Michael Lutin, Chris McRae, Bob Thibodeau, Dennis Fairchild, Monica Dimino, Richard Smoot, Grace Morris and others. For more information, call 303-828-5445, 303-604-2777, or email macasrtrology@yahoo.com, or go to http://macastrology.tripod.com/.

September 15-16, 2012: Troy, Michigan. MMTA – the Merriman Market Timing Academy – will conduct its pre-curriculum introductory workshop on "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing." Deadline for registration to this workshop is September 1, 2013. For further information, please visit http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/, or the bottom of the opening page on www.mmacycles.com. Or contact mmacustomerservice@gmail.com or ordersmmma@msn.com,

April 6-8, 2013: MMTA Course 1: "Cycles and Chart Patterns in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This will be the first of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA). It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.

June 15-17, 2013: MMTA Course 2: "Geocosmic Correlations to Long-Term Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

August 10-12, 2013: MMTA Course 3: "Geocosmic Correlations to Primary and Trading Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

October 12-14, 2013: MMTA Course 4: "Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Reversals in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:

• Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
• Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
• German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
• Japanese : www.merriman.jp
• Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
• Russian : www.urania.ru
• Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
• Spanish : www.mma-spanish.com.ar (Español)

Hedging appropriate unless bull proves: Tony Caldaro's 7/14/12 OEW update

Ouch, the market didn't stay over SPX 1358 let alone 1360-1362! Any who stayed long are fortunate it rebounded well yesterday! So Tony Caldaro has recalibated his objective Elliott Wave update analysis (thanks again Tony!) Tony also addresses global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, crude oil and other commodities, and many individual stocks in his publics charts list. Use his charts link at the bottom to view all of his public charts. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
July 14, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

On a week to week basis it does not look like the market had done much: SPX 1355 last friday, SPX 1357 this friday. During the week, however, the market had quite a roller coaster ride. A gap up opening on tuesday was sold as the SPX hit 1362. Then the market hit its low for the week thursday morning at SPX 1325. A full reversal followed, and in just over 24 hours the week ended with a marginal gain. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, but the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Foreign markets were also mixed. Asian markets lost 1.9%, Europeans markets gained 0.3%, and the DJ World index was -0.6%. Economic reports for the week continued their winning streak, with positives outpacing negatives 6 to 5. On the uptick: consumer credit, the PPI, WLEI and the monetary base, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment and the budget deficit expanded. Next week we get a look at industrial production, the FED's beige book and housing.

LONG TERM: bull market

While most of the world's stock indices are in bear markets. We're still projecting an ongoing bull market in the US, and possibly England and Switzerland. The bull market that started in March 2009 at SPX 667, hit SPX 1422 in April and we project it will hit the mid-1500′s during 2013. Our wave count remains the same: a five Primary wave bull market underway to complete Cycle wave [1] of the new Supercycle.

Primary waves I and II completed at SPX 1371 and 1075 respectively, in May and October 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves, with Major wave 1 subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Major wave 1 of Primary III has also subdivided into five Intermediate waves. The only question now in the long term count is if Major wave 2 bottomed at SPX 1267, or is still in progress.

MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend continues

Four weeks ago the market generated a WROC buy signal. These signals usually precede uptrend confirmations and are better than 90% reliable. Shortly thereafter the market did confirm an uptrend as the SPX has risen from 1267 to 1375. These buys signals, however, do not differentiate between impulsive and corrective uptrends. Thoughout this bull market we have had 19 WROC buy signals. None of them have failed to occur during uptrends. However, there were two B wave uptrends during 2011, that were fully retraced, which also generated WROC buy signals. Therefore, the recent buy signal does not rule out the possibility that this uptrend is a B wave.

When examining in detail both rallies during this uptrend, SPX 1267-1363 and SPX 1309-1375, neither look that implusive. The first looks like an ABC: SPX 1336-1307-1363, as does the second: SPX 1334-1313-1375. This would suggest this uptrend is, thus far, a double zigzag B wave, and not the beginning of Major wave 3. In fact, after six weeks, this uptrend does not even have the look of a third wave. Third waves are typically strong impulsive moves. Just like Major wave 3 of Primary I, and the two Intermediate wave iii's of Primary's I and III. This uptrend is looking more and more like an Intermediate B wave of Major wave 2. The count posted on the DOW/NAZ charts. This would imply an eventual retest of the SPX 1267 low, when this uptrend concludes.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Thus far the uptrend, as noted above, looks like a series of ABC's rather than 5′s. The uptrend has unfolded in three waves: 1267-1363 (96 points), and 1309-1375 (66 points). Oddly enough, this uptrend is now also forming an upward rising channel, which is posted on the SPX daily and hourly charts.

The significance of this channel is threefold. Should the SPX break through the upper trendline, this uptrend could still advance in what was expected to be a Major wave 3. Should the SPX remain within the channel, the uptrend could make a higher high. Should the SPX break below the lower trendline, it is quite probable the uptrend ended as a corrective ABC at SPX 1375. Thus far this uptrend looks more like a day traders market, than an investors buy and hold market. With friday's close just a bit more than 1% below the uptrend high it may be a good time to do some hedging.

Short term support is at SPX 1342/47, 1334/38 and 1324/27. Overhead resistance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought, and a pullback can now occur at any time. The short term OEW charts swung positive again with the rally over the SPX 1346 swing point. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 1.9%. All but China remain in uptrends.

The European markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.3%. All indices remain in uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were mixed for a net loss of 0.8%. All but Brazil are in uptrends.

The uptrending DJ World index lost 0.6% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds have not confirmed a downtrend yet and continue to drift higher gaining 0.1% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend gaining 3.2% on the week.

Gold is in a choppy uptrend and added 0.2% on the week.

The USD continues to uptrend, but was relatively flat on the week.

NEXT WEEK

A full calendar ahead for the week. On monday Retail sales and the NY FED at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00. Tuesday, we have the CPI, Industrial production and the NAHB housing index. Wednesday, Housing starts, Building permits and the FED's beige book. Then on thursday, weekly Jobless claims, Existing home sales, the Philly FED and Leading indicators. On tuesday and wednesday FED chairman Bernanke testifies before the Senate and House, respectively, on the semiannual monetary policy report. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp