Can you spare a paradigm? Here's a surprising one! Tony Caldaro's 6/30/12 OEW update

Daytraders don't need paradigms but they're vital for investors and swing traders. Tony Caldaro's outdone himself now, showing the big picture across markets and asset classes. Bookmark this one! and read on below (thanks again Tony!). His Objective Elliott Wave work is the best of any Elliott Wave analysis, that's why we feature his reports. Tony also addresses global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, crude oil and other commodities, and many individual stocks in his publics charts list. Use his charts link at the bottom to view all of his public charts. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
June 30, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

Another wild week on Wall Street as the market had gap openings on four of the five days. In the end it was a positive week as there was a gap up opening on friday which took the market to its highest levels of the week. Even the economic news improved somewhat to a balance between positive and negative reports. On the uptick: new/pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI and weekly jobless claims ticked down. On the downtick: consumer confidence/sentiment, personal spending, new home prices, the monetary base and the WLEI. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.35%. Asian markets rallied 1.3%, European markets rose 2.8%, and the DJ World index gained 2.4%. Next week we have a mid-week holiday with reports on ISM, and on friday the monthly Payrolls report.

BIG PICTURE

We thought it would be best this week to start off with the big picture in a few of the world's asset classes. As we all know, medium term trend changes can sometimes be mistaken for long term changes. Therefore it is a good practice, as the saying goes, to keep a sharp eye on the forest before examining its trees.

We covered the Commodity asset class over the weekend. We counted a five Primary wave bull market from 1998 to 2008. Then a Primary A wave decline into 2009, followed by a B wave advance into 2011. Long term we expect commodities to head lower.

We also covered the Precious metals asset class last weekend. This chart has a similar count from the 1999/2001 low topping in 2011. We believe the precious metals are now in potentially a long term bear market.

The next asset class is the DJ World stock index. We count a Primary wave III top in 2000, followed by a Primary wave IV low in 2002, then a Primary wave V high in 2007. The 2007 high is marked as the end of a multi-decade Supercycle wave that started in 1932/42. What followed that peak was the biggest crash and market decline, (60% worldwide), since the 1929-1932 bear market. This bear market, we believe, ended in 2009 and concluded that Supercycle wave. After that low, a two year bull market followed into 2011. Now, equity markets in general are in a bear market. The US, and possibly England and Switzerland appear to be the only exceptions at this time.

We wrote a report of a major change underway last year in the Currencies. Not much has changed, except many of the currencies have confirmed our views. The USD has generally been in a major bear market since 1985 when it hit 164.72. As you can see it has lost more than half its value since then. It did have somewhat of a bull market between 1995 and 2001 when it rose a bit more than 50%. That low and high were labeled Cycle waves [A] and [B] respectively. It has been in a Cycle wave [C] bear market since then. Typically at the end of a bear market the USD establishes a low, in this case Primary wave A at 72.70. Then rallies in a Primary B wave, which may have recently completed at 83.54. This is followed by a higher Primary wave C low to end the Cycle. After this occurs, possibly by 2013/14, the USD should soar into the end of the decade. Potentially it could double. Considering we do not expect the USD to make a lower low than 2011, we would state it appears to be in a long term bull market.

The last asset class covered is the US 30-year Bond. Interest rates on the long term bond have generally been declining since they peaked in 1981 at 14.59%. Recently the 30-year hit an all time low of 2.51%. We have been counting this entire bear market in rates as a series of ABC's: a triple zigzag. The last C wave, of the last zigzag, may have completed at the recent low. This would suggest long term rates should start rising for the next three decades. It should be gradual at first as a new bull market in rates takes hold. This also suggests bond prices should soon start declining. The worse time for investors to own long term bonds is when interest rates are rising. Unless held to maturity.

In conclusion. Commodities, precious metals, worldwide stock indices, and US government bonds are either in, or entering, bear markets. There are, however, selected sectors within these bear markets that are still in bull markets. For example, the US stock market and possibly England's and Switzerland's equity market should make new bull market highs into 2013. These new highs may coincide with the expected USD low in 2013. After that, it would appear the USD and short term US Treasury bills will be the place to be for a couple of years. Plus, US real estate.

LONG TERM: bull market

The US bull market we have been tracking now for three years is still underway. This market has had its share of disappointments and surprises but it continues to unfold. The count we have been carrying is different than the one presented above for the world market indices. While we believe world equity markets generally topped in 2011 the US market remains bullish and in a slightly different pattern.

Our count suggests a Supercycle wave [2] low occurred in 2009, and a Cycle wave [1] bull market is underway. The Cycle wave bull market should unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in Apr11 and Oct11 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since then. Within at least two of the rising Primary waves there should be five clearly defined Major waves. Primary wave I displays five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary wave III is also starting off with the same pattern. A Major wave 1 that subdivided into five Intermediate waves.

After Major wave 1, in Primary I, concluded Major wave 2 was a three month, and somewhat complex, zigzag. All other corrections during Primary I lasted only one month. Major wave 2, in Primary III, thus far appears to be a simple zigzag. And, it has only lasted one month if one uses the bellwether DOW count. Whether or not Major wave 2 has concluded at the early June low we'll examine in the next section. When Major wave 3 unfolds it should be a lengthy uptrend lasting possibly six to seven months. Then a quick Major wave 4 down should be followed by a short rising Major wave 5 to conclude Primary wave III. After a Primary wave IV correction, a rising Primary wave V should unfold to end the bull market sometime in mid to late 2013. Currently it looks like the DOW will make all time new highs before the bull market concludes.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend confirmation pending

After a thorough review of all the charts and indicators it is quite clear markets worldwide had an impressive week. Even though it did not show up in the final weekly numbers. In fact, 80% of the world's indices are in confirmed uptrends or nearing one. This is quite a shift from last week when not one international index was in a confirmed uptrend. In the currency markets the USD joined the JPY in a confirmed downtrend, while the EUR and CHF are now in uptrends. In fact, friday's 1.7% surge in the EUR can be categorized as a rare event. A surge like this occurs only two to three times a year, and is usually at the beginning, or early part, of a stock market uptrend.

In the US, all nine of the SPX sectors we track are in confirmed uptrends or close to it. Indicators such as the VIX and Corporate bond risk are either in a confirmed downtrend or will confirm shortly. Even 1 year rates now have five waves up from their 0.08% record low yield in 2011. It was quite a week!

The major four US indices have been displaying three potential bullish counts, during Primary III, for the past month or so. We have decided to narrow it down to two: the DOW count and the NDX count. The bellwether cyclical DOW displays a Major wave 1 high, of Primary III, in May12. The growth NDX displays a Major wave 3 high, of Primary III, in Mar12. We have adjusted the cyclical SPX to align with the DOW count, counting its May high as a fifth wave failure.

Three weeks ago we received a WROC buy signal. These signals usually arrive at the beginning of a potential uptrend, and are 90+% accurate. After reviewing the initial rally from SPX 1267 – 1363 it appeared to be a bit choppy, corrective even, suggesting we could get an uptrend. But it could be just an Intermediate B wave rally. We still see this as a possibility. As a result we have decided to continue to carry this count, but as an alternate. This alternate count is posted on the DOW and NAZ charts, with the primary count on the SPX and NDX charts.

SHORT TERM:

Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought on friday and closed there. The initial rally from the early June low at SPX 1267 rose to 1363. A pullback followed to SPX 1309 by monday, a retest on tuesday at 1310, then another retest on thursday at 1313 when the DOW made a lower low. Late on thursday the market started to rally, and continued that rally into friday ending at SPX 1362. The entire seven trading day pullback was nearly recaptured in one day. Quite impressive!

With all the previous bullish observations in mind we have labeled the initial advance to SPX 1363 as Minor wave 1, of Intermediate wave i, of Major wave 3. Minor wave 2 should have ended at the SPX 1309, 1310, 1313 complex low. The late thursday/friday rally should be the beginning of Minor wave 3. Initial resistance for this advance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. Support remains at SPX 1342/47, 1334/37 and 1324/27. With the market hitting extremely overbought on friday, a pullback into initial support at SPX 1342/47 would be quite normal. The short term OEW charts turned positive on thursday when the market rallied above SPX 1327. The positive/negative swing point is now around SPX 1334. Best to your trading, and happy 4th of July.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were nearly all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.3%. India and South Korea are now in confirmed uptrends.

The European markets were all higher on the week for a gain of 2.8%. Spain has already confirmed an uptrend.

The Commodity equity group were mixed on the week for a net gain of 1.6%. Canada is in a confirmed uptrend.

The DJ World index rose 2.4% on the week and nearly confirmed an uptrend.

COMMODITIES

Bonds fluctuated a bit this week ending with a 0.3% gain. Bonds are getting close to confirmed a downtrend.

Crude continued lower for most of the week hitting $77.28 on thursday. Then rallied to close the week at $84.82 for a net gain of 6.1% on the week.

Gold has been quite choppy since its May low at $1527, but rallied strongly on friday for a net gain of 1.7% on the week. Gold is now in a confirmed uptrend.

The USD rallied early in the week, but gave it all back on friday for a net loss of 0.8% on the week. The USD is now in a confirmed downtrend. The EUR (+0.7%) and CHF (0.7%) are in confirmed uptrends, while the JPY (+0.8%) remains in a downtrend.

NEXT WEEK

With a holiday, 4th of July, scheduled in mid-week volume is expected to be somewhat on the light side in the US. On monday ISM manufacturing and Construction spending will be released at 10:00. On tuesday, Factory orders and monthly Auto sales. Then on thursday, the ADP index, weekly Jobless claims, and ISM services. The monthly Payrolls report closes out the week on friday. The FED has nothing scheduled at this time. The ECB, however, meets on thursday. Best to your weekend, holiday and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Mid-May might blossom for markets, not just moms: Raymond Merriman's 5/12/12 week preview comments

Raymond Merriman forecast for quite a while now that mid-May might bring an opportunity many investors would welcome. Whether or not we see a retest later this month or June, consider what he's saying in his weekly preview, below (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning May 14, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Please note that there will be no weekly column issued in two weeks, for the week of May 28, due to the UAC conference taking place May 24-29 in New Orleans, LA. We hope to see many of you there. For information please go to www.uacastrology.com.

Review and Preview

It is always bleakest just before the bottom. After all, prices are falling and investors are worried that that their profits are evaporating or their losses are increasing. But it is precisely that type of psychology that is prevalent at cycle troughs. In their fear, traders and investors tend to give up and sell their positions. Interestingly enough, this happens at regular intervals of time in the market, known as cycles, and especially when certain geocosmic signatures are also in effect – like Venus turning retrograde, which is happening this week (May 15), but whose orb of influence was well in effect last week.

This was the situation on Tuesday night, May 8. Once again a special report on precious metals was sent to all subscribers on Wednesday morning, several hours before the USA markets opened. On Tuesday, Gold had dropped below its 1613 low of April 4, and Silver fell to its lowest level in four months. I suggested the price of Gold could "… drop to 1579 +/- 12 and 1585.20 +/- 9.80. But we cannot rule out a severe washout, quickly taking prices even down as low as 1499 +/- 35." That day Gold drop hard, down to 1578.50. The next day it was back above 1600. But that was not enough to confirm the primary bottom was in, which is still expected within 12 trading days of Venus turning retrograde. But in most cases of the past, that low unfolded within even 4 trading days (i.e. about 1 week). On Friday, Gold dipped even lower, down to 1572 intraday.

Although the special report was on Gold, it applies equally well to both stock indices and currency markets. As Gold fell, so did the Euro currency as French President Sarkozy went down in defeat to Francois Hollende, who was opposed to the austerity measures supported by Sarkozy, Merkel, and Draghi (and probably Sweden's leadership as well, who like Germany, have seen their economies grow very nicely by applying austerity measures to their economy). So the Euro futures market began the week by opening below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern (i.e. a term known to chartists and market technicians for its bearish implications). The Euro currency fell to its lowest level also since January. On Friday, May 11, the June futures contract was down to 1.2906, which is exactly into a price target for such a low at this point in the cycle, 1.2906 +/- .0069, via a calculation formula provided in Volume 5 of the Stock Market Timing series. It remains to see if that will hold as the low for the Venus retrograde reversal signature, or if it will yet fall lower – maybe even to 1.2500 – as the powerful geocosmic reversal signature says could still happen too, as long as this orb of influence remains in effect. The Euro needs two closes back above that neckline, which is around 1.3090, to look positive again.

Equity markets around the world behaved most interestingly as well last week as we head into this magnet-like effect of the Venus Retrograde, May 15. So far, the magnet is pulling stock prices down. But if Venus retrograde is indeed to be a valid reversal signature this time as it has been so often in the past, it implies a bottom is close at hand and a rally is to begin.

Short-Term Geocosmics

It is mostly about Venus turning retrograde on Tuesday, May 15. That's the powerful Level One signature now in effect, according to the studies published in Volume 3 of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing" series. But the Sun will also form a conjunction to the largest planet in our solar system – Jupiter – on Sunday, May 13. The former has a very high correlation to reversals for primary cycle crests or troughs – or their secondary lows or highs – within 12 trading days. Since the market is coming down to test its lows of April 10 at 12,710 in the DJIA, we can assume it will be either a half-primary cycle trough, or a double bottom that remains slightly above the primary low of April 10, if it indeed correlates with a reversal at all (probabilities are about 80% +/- 3% that it will). As a market timer who enjoys the challenge of picking lows, this set up is enough for me to get excited about. On Wednesday, May 9, the DJIA fell to 12,748, which is already in the price range for a double bottom to the 12,710 low of April 10. On Friday, it was back down to 12,779. It's still holding those lows, while the NASDAQ futures have broken well below it multi-month lows. Interestingly enough, the NASDAQ Composite cash index hit 2900 this week, the same level where it rested on the low of March 6.

The next important period looming on the horizon is the new moon solar eclipse on May 21. Both the Moon and Sun enter the sign of Gemini that day. The eclipse of the Sun occurs at 7:46 PM in the Eastern Daylight Time Zone, so you won't be able to see it from the USA. You can see it from the east coast of South America, and of course in Europe and parts of Asia and Australia. Neptune will then form a waxing square to the Sun (and this eclipse point) on Wednesday, May 23. That might hold provide a temporary reversal zone for stocks.

However, it will be more interesting (from my perspective) to then see what happens when the Venus occultation (eclipse) to the Sun takes place on June 6, nestled in between the Sun-Venus conjunction in square aspect to Mars, June 4 and June 7. Jupiter also ends its transit of Taurus and moves into Gemini on June 11. It will stay in Gemini for one year. Remember: Jupiter in Gemini can be a blow-off high when Uranus and Pluto are nearby to a hard aspect. And they are, June 24, 2012 through March 15, 2015. Any new yearly highs now can start a big rally, even to new all-time highs. Failure to make a new high, however, means the long-term cycle high occurred when Jupiter was in Taurus after all, and between 23 Aries and 7 Taurus for the German DAX, whose high of May and July 2011 has not been exceeded yet. Our analysis a year ago that the stock markets of the world would not exceed new highs after March 7, 2012 has proved correct so far everywhere in the world but the USA. The USA stock indices have made new highs in late March through May 1, 2012, well after Jupiter left 7 degrees of Taurus, implying they could go yet higher to peak while Jupiter is in Gemini. It will be interesting to see which of these Jupiter factors work. Or will they both work, with Jupiter in Taurus correlating with the high in most of the world's indices, and Jupiter in Gemini correlating with a higher high in the USA stock indices? That type of bizarre pattern is the very stuff that Uranus square Pluto can bring to the table. That is, if anyone can still afford a table, given that it also correlates with the next step of the exploding world debt crisis.

Longer-Term Thoughts

For those interested in my longer-term views of the Economy and Stock Market, please note that this month's issue of The Mountain Astrologer contains a 12-page feature article on the subject, written by yours truly. You can access the article by subscribing to this journal at www.mountainastrologer.com. For those German speaking readers, it will be translated and posted in the next issue of Astrologie Heute (www.astrodata.ch).

Last week I talked about the importance of Venus in our lives this spring. As stated then, "Venus is going to be quite prominent in the weeks ahead, due to its 6-week retrograde motion that will be in effect May 15 through June 27, and also due to its very rare occultation to the Sun on June 6-7 (that's like Venus eclipsing the Sun)." So here we are – and there is more Venus principles present in the mundane and political world these days.

Let's talk about the concept of "social issues," a real hot topic of debate in this year's USA presidential election season. For that matter, it is an issue at work all over the world, as noted in Europe's 17-member Euro Union and its revolving leaderships as the result of elections last week in Greece and France, where the proponents of austerity measures got soundly beaten. Let's say the issue was more about quality of life (or equality of life) than personal sacrifices necessary to balance the ledgers of these countries (i.e. austerity).

So "austerity" is becoming just as much of a "social issue" as an "economic issue." In astrology, when we talk about anything social, we are referring to the principle of Venus and its ruling sign of Libra, and also the seventh house of the horoscope (Libra is the 7th sign of the zodiac, and hence it has a correspondence of principles with the 7th house of a horoscope).

To understand this movement to "austerity" as a "social issue," we look to Libra and Venus in the heavens. We already know Venus is highlighted now by its retrograde motion and also by the approach of its long-term occultation to the Sun (the last time this happened was in the 1870's, as discussed last week). But its natural home of Libra is also being highlighted - and has been highlighted since the summer of 2010 – with the presence of Saturn therein. In fact, Saturn is retrograde in Libra right now and will not turn direct until June 24, 2012. After that it will zoom quickly out of Libra for a three-year tour of duty in Scorpio on October 5, 2012. Saturn in Scorpio, with Pluto is Capricorn, is symbolically a "Time of Reckoning" for all things done under the domain of Pluto (debt, deficits, taxes, regulations).

But that's next. Right now, Saturn is in Libra, and social issues are on stage. Everyone's worried about the economy and financial markets, but they are fascinated with the number of social issues that are now being addressed by political leaders - like the two candidates running for USA presidency (Obama and Romney) - and large turnouts by the populace who do not want to suffer the sacrifices required of austerity policies. As a social issue, many people are no longer willing to accept austerity measures. As an economic issue, some leaders are acutely aware that it has to be addressed and acted upon, as has been the successful case in Germany, Switzerland, and Sweden. But if you are not living in one of those frugally managed countries – or any others who have managed to grow their economies and apply austerity measures – then those running for your highest office just won't get elected or re-elected unless they get the topic of discussion away from austerity.

Unless, of course, the voting population sees the writing on the walls too, and isn't deluded enough to think the debt crisis of today can be solved only by more and more monetary stimulus and hence more debt. But that's not for me to argue. Yet as a Financial Astrologer, I understand this: Saturn in Libra is austerity as both a social and economic issue. It was "chic" (popular social fashion) to be austere earlier in this period. But as Saturn in Libra comes to an end later this year and gives way to the heavier Saturn in Scorpio era, those who have not been "chic austere" will likely pay the price for their exaggerated debts after October 5. In the meantime, the market can go higher with the announcements of more stimulus spending. But as Saturn entrenches itself into Scorpio, the continued stimulus spending and new taxes due January 1, 2013 will likely increase these debts and bring about a "Time of Reckoning." This is the mantra of Saturn in Scorpio, in mutual reception to Pluto in Capricorn, through 2015 and quite possibly into 2020 when the Saturn-Pluto cycle finally ends and a new one begins.

Announcements

The DVD of the Denver Workshop on Financial Market Timing is now available!!! This financial markets workshop offers a completely unique and original perspective, integrating 1) Market Timing studies, 2) Price Objective calculations, 3) Technical Analysis, 4) Pattern Recognition studies, and 5) Trend Analysis. The primary focus of this workshop is on Market Timing Studies, particularly Cycles Analysis and Geocosmic Studies, as leading indicators that identify when to anticipate a reversal in all financial markets. Gold and the U.S. stock market are studied in great detail, especially regarding their current status. There is a wealth of timely and valuable information in this DVD, especially pertaining the forthcoming Venus retrograde period (May 15-June 27), the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012, lasting through March 2015, and the important Jupiter correlation to stock market cycles coming up August-November 2012 and March-May 2013. The cost for this 4-hour DVD workshop is $180.00 plus postage. To order, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/dvd-of-boulder-workshop-on-financial-market-timing!!!/. Or call Amber at 1-248-626-3034. If you are a trader or investor who appreciates the value of market timing – especially in the next few months – this is a presentation you will not want to miss!

June 23: A special 5-hour workshop on "The Gold Market: Forecasting the Future Price of Gold and Silver." 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM, Hotel Park Plaza Victoria. Amsterdam, Damrak 1-5, Amsterdam 1012 LG, Netherlands. Sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. This is a special workshop on precious metals you will not want to miss!!! Cost is €345 ex VAT. Subscribers of any MMA reports (trials excluded) receive a 15% discount. For further information, please go to http://www.markettiming.nl/en/producten/workshop-gold-silver, or call 31 (02) 294 415 917, or by fax at31 (02) 294-415-918 to register for an exciting event in one of the world's most exciting cities at the most exciting time of the year: the first Uranus-Pluto square will be taking place then, right near the summer solstice! This will be special, and a great opportunity to meet some very impressive market timers who will be present. Register now as seating is limited!

Raymond Merriman's "On-Line Market Timing Academy" (OLMTA) will offer a pre-training course on "Beginning Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing," September 15-16, in Troy, Michigan, at the Management Education Center of Michigan State University. This 10-12 hour course may be attended live, in person, or via webcast televised to your computer. A DVD will be available afterwards as well. This workshop will basically train non-astrologers in the use of reading an ephemeris, the table of planetary positions for any given day. This is essential to anyone who wishes to understand how to find a geocosmic critical reversal date for financial markets. This course (or audit of it) is a pre-requisite for anyone entering the OLMTA market training course, as developed and instructed by Raymond Merriman. The OLMTA two-year training course will begin in March 2013, and will involve 8 weekends of study – 4 weekends each in 2013 and 2014. For more information and registration, please go to www.mmacycles.com (front page, near bottom). We will make announcements as this training program unfolds. The cost for the September 15-16 pre-training workshop is $395.00 ($300 for MMA subscribers). This cost will be deducted from the fee of the two-year training course to those who apply and are accepted into OLMTA by late October 2012.

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

NEW! Now available Mini-Congress 'Outlook for 2012' on CD!!! Recordings of the congress "Outlook for 2012," held January 21, 2012 in Amsterdam, are now available on CD, with audio and PDFs of PowerPoint slides. All lectures are spoken in English. The following presentations are included on this CD: "2012 End Time of Dawning" by Irma Schogt (20 minutes);"Happy New Year" by Drs. Karen Hamaker-Zondag (20 minutes , regarding ECB and Federal Reserve Board); "2012: The Center of the Storm" by Antonia Langsdorf (20 minutes, regarding Mayan calendar and astrology); "Forecast for 2012" by Raymond Merriman (1 hour). Total length 2 hours, with PowerPoint slides sent online in a PDF document. Cost is $55.00 plus postage. Please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/cd%27s-now-available-on-the-forecast-2012-mini%11congress-in-amsterdam,-january-21,-2012/, or www.mmacycles.com for ordering info.

Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

EVENTS:

May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday evening on the top floor of the Marriott. If you are interested in attending, please contact us and reserve your space! No cost to subscribers! Otherwise $95.00 to participate.

June 23: Amsterdam. A special 5-hour workshop on "The Gold Market: Forecasting the Future Price of Gold and Silver." 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM, Hotel Park Plaza Victoria. Amsterdam, Damrak 1-5, Amsterdam 1012 LG, Netherlands. Sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. This is a special workshop on precious metals you will not want to miss!!! Cost is € 345 ex VAT. Subscribers of any MMA reports (trials excluded) receive a 15% discount. For further information, please go to http://www.markettiming.nl/en/producten/workshop-gold-silver for an exciting event in one of the world's most exciting cities at the most exciting time of the year: the first Uranus-Pluto square will be taking place then, right near the summer solstice! This will be special. You may also register by calling 31 (02) 294 415 917, or by fax at 31 (02) 294-415-918. Register now as seating is limited!

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, in Ann Arbor, MI, Holiday Inn. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology, Thursday, August 2, with Raymond Merriman. More details soon.

September 15-16, 2012: Troy, Michigan. OLMTA – the On-Line Market Timing Academy – will conduct it pre-curriculum introductory workshop on "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing." This will be an introductory course on how to read an ephemeris and how to calculate a critical reversal date. It is open to anyone, but understanding this material is mandatory for anyone entering the MMA mentor-apprenticeship program that will officially start in March 2013. This introductory workshop will be available as a live webinar too. The cost is $300 to subscribers of any MMA subscription report, or $395 to others. For further information, please contact mmacustomerservice@gmail.com or ordersmmma@msn.com.Or go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to the bottom of the first page.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

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Elliott Wave roadmap updated and explained for 2012 & beyond: Tony Caldaro's 4/28/12 OEW update

Stock indices mixed, bonds uptrending and precious metals poised to rally - the markets' roadmap may be challenging but who better than Tony Caldaro to give great guidance, with his Objective Elliott Wave weekend update (thanks again Tony!). As I noted the past two weeks, slower-moving equity investors (and even some KI$$ traders) might prefer to cash out and wait for a good buying opportunity likely after this month, although gold and silver may be ready now. Tony's work also addresses global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, crude oil and other commodities, and some individual stocks including Apple. Use his charts link at the bottom to view all of his public charts. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

April 28, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

An interesting week. The market opened the week with a large gap down, the fifth gap opening in six trading days, and traded down to SPX 1359 in the first half hour. That was the low for the week. The market then recovered, somewhat, on monday and tuesday. Then AAPL's earnings were released after tuesday's close. On wednesday the market rallied, despite a 'hold the course' FOMC statement. Thursday the rally continued. Then on friday Q1 GDP was reported lower than expected, but the market still managed to end higher. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.35%. Asian markets were -0.6%, European markets were +1.0%, and the DJ World index rose 1.1%. Economic reports were mixed, with negatives outpacing positives 7 to 6. On the uptick: new/pending homes sales, FHFA, new home prices, consumer sentiment and the monetary base. On the downtick: Q1 GDP, WLEI, Case-Shiller, durable goods orders, the M1-multiplier, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we'll get reports on monthly Payrolls, ISM, Chicago PMI and Auto sales. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: bull market

We continue to see a bull market unfolding in the US stock indices from the Mar09 low at SPX 667. Primary I, of a five primary wave bull market, completed in May11 at SPX 1371. Primary II completed in Oct11 at SPX 1075. Primary III is currently underway. Within Primary III we are tracking five Major waves. Major wave 1 concluded in Oct11 at SPX 1293. Major wave 2 ended in Nov11 at SPX 1159. And, Major wave 3 probably concluded in Apr12 at SPX 1422. We state probably, because the SPX has not confirmed a Major wave 4 downtrend yet. When Major wave 4 does conclude we will still have a rising Major wave 5 ahead to end Primary wave III. Then a declining Primary wave IV will lead to a rising Primary wave V to end the bull market some time in 2013 within the SPX 1545-1586 range. This should be followed by a nasty 50% market decline into 2014/2016.

The weekly chart continues to display positive technicals, as well as, the labeling for the bull/bear/bull markets over the past ten years. The RSI continues to hit extremely overbought levels, and the MACD continues to remain generally above neutral. These indicators do just the opposite during bear markets. We also note the economy is expanding, (over 50%), consumer sentiment is still on the bearish side, (under 50%), while investors are generally neutral (just above 50%).

MEDIUM TERM: DOW confirmed a downtrend, the SPX has not

During the month of April the DOW, and probably the NAZ, confirmed downtrends but the SPX and NDX did not. This is a somewhat rare, and unusual event, but has occurred before. Typically, all four major indices move trend for trend, in unison, with some lag time. Since 2006 there has been hardly any deviation. During the 2003-2005period, however, the DOW deviated from the other major indices on five occassions.

The first two times occurred early in uptrends. This does not appear applicable to our current market since all four major indices had been uptrending for five months before the DOW confirmed a downtrend. During the last three times the DOW eventually ended with the same wave pattern: an irregular ABC correction. The initial downtrend in the DOW confirmed an A wave, while the SPX only pulled back. When the SPX continued to rally the DOW confirmed a B wave uptrend. All three DOW B waves were limited to 1.382 times A, or less, i.e. DOW 13,520 or lower. Then all four major indices entered confirmed downtrends to complete the correction. When the correction completed the C wave ended at a slightly lower level than the A wave low. This type of correction, in this bull market, would certainly alternate with the Major wave 2 zigzag that occurred between Oct11-Nov11.

Since OEW relies on quantitative wave analysis and the objectivity of probability. We are labeling the April decline as Intermediate wave A of Major wave 4 in the DOW, and the current rally as Intermediate wave B. Probabilities, 60%, suggest Major wave 4 has not completed. This count is carried on the DOW daily chart. In all fairness, however, even with a low 20% probability. We will track the April low, as the end of Major wave 4, with an alternate count on the NAZ daily chart.

Remaining objective again. The SPX and NDX have not confirmed downtrends. Probabilities suggest the recent decline was only wave 4 of the uptrend, i.e. Intermediate wave iv. This suggests Int. wave five is currently underway. It is likely to make a new high, be short in length and duration, and complete Major wave 3. We display this count on the SPX and NDX daily charts.

When indices divergence like this it is generally a sign of current weakness specific to that particular index. Since the DOW is the international index of the four majors, it is reflecting the general weakness in the international markets. Over 80% are in confirmed downtrends. The SPX/NDX are more US specific, and have not confirmed that weakness yet. There is also the factor of futures related volatility. The DOW and NAZ are less sensitive to futures activity than the heavily traded SPX and NDX.

The main takeaway from all this analysis is this. The DOW is now the important index to watch. If it turns lower from around current levels, and makes news lows, Major wave 4 should be completing. If it confirms a new uptrend, the uptrend should be limited to DOW 13,520. This will keep the Int. wave B correction counter rally in place, and Int. wave C would follow to complete Major wave 4. Should the DOW exceed 13,520 then the Major wave 4 completed alternate count would gain in probablity. This market has basically reached another inflection point.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum hit an extremely overbought level on friday and has started to pullback. Since the SPX has not made new highs during this recent rally we are still considering the expanding triangle Intermediate wave B, as posted on the hourly chart. Should the SPX continue to rally this count will be eliminated and the Int. wave iv low at SPX 1359, posted on the daily chart, will be preferred. If the SPX makes new highs, this would suggest a potential uptrend high within the OEW 1440 pivot range. The OEW 1440 pivot would align with the upper limits of the Int. wave B scenario in the DOW.

Currently this is a difficult market to trade with all the cross-currents between indices. Historically, the US stock market does not make much progress when the four major indices are out of sync. The last time this occurred was during the 2004-2005 period of the 2002-2007 bull market. Probabilities suggest, regardless of the short term direction over the next few weeks, the April lows in all four major indices will be revisited before Major wave 4 concludes.

Short term support is at SPX 1397, and then the 1386 and 1372 pivot ranges. Short term resistance is at SPX 1414, 1419 and 1422. Short term momentum hit an extremely overbought level on friday, highest since mid-March, and has started to pullback. This rally, from SPX 1359, looks like fives waves thus far: 1376, 1368, 1405, 1397, and 1407. Short term OEW charts have been positive since around SPX 1380. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were nearly all lower on the week for a net loss of 0.6%. Only Australia and Indonesia, of the eight indices we track, are in confirmed uptrends.

The Europeans markets were nearly all higher for a gain of 1.0%. Not one of the seven indices we track are in confirmed uptrends.

The Commodity equity group was mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.8%. All three are in confirmed downtrends.

The DJ World index remains in a downtrend but gained 1.1% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are uptrending and gained 0.4% on the week. The 10yr rate traded below 2.0% all week.

Crude looks like it's trying to establish an uptrend, after a positive divergence, and gained 0.6% on the week.

Gold is trying to establish an uptrend, after a two month correction, and gained 1.2% on the week.

The USD, which had been in a trading range for weeks, is now downtrending and lost 0.6% on the week. The EUR, potentially uptrending, gained 0.3%. The uptrending, and potentially topping, JPY gained 1.8%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday kicks off the economic week with Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Then the Chicago PMI at 9:45. On tuesday we have ISM manufacturing, Construction spending and monthly Auto sales. On wednesday the ADP index and Factory orders. Thursday offers weekly Jobless claims, Productivity and ISM services. Then on friday the monthly Payrolls report. The FED has one activity scheduled for the week. And, an interesting one at that. FED governor Tarullo gives a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, on wednesday, at 8:00 AM. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp