Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Fed-fueled bull market code cracked, despite pullback? Tony Caldaro's 6/23/12 OEW update

Is there a formulaic code fueling bullishness in the U.S. stock market, and will a deeper pullback here lead to higher highs at least in the U.S.? Maybe... Tony Caldaro's update will surprise you, so read it below (thanks again Tony!). His Objective Elliott Wave work is the best of any Elliott Wave analysis, that's why we feature his reports. Tony also addresses global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, crude oil and other commodities, and many individual stocks in his publics charts list. Use his charts link at the bottom to view all of his public charts. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
June 23, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

While most of the world's equity markets have turned bearish again after their 2010/2011 advances, we continue to track what we believe is a bullish US stock market. Now that the recent liquidity cycle is coming to an end, we'll explain why we have this view, both technically and fundamentally. This week the market continued to rally into the tuesday/wednesday FOMC meeting, with expectations of a new quantitative easing program: QE 3. When the FED did not deliver, extending only Operation Twist, the market became quite volatile on wednesday and sold off dramatically on thursday. Friday we saw an oversold rebound. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.80%, but the NDX/NAZ were +0.65%. Asian markets gained 0.2%, European markets gained 1.0%, and the DJ World index lost 0.3%. In the end not a bad week. Economic reports again came in heavily to the downside: six down and two up. On the uptick: building permits and the leading indicators. On the downtick: housing starts, existing home sales, FHFA housing prices, the Philly FED, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week Q1 GDP on thursday, plus PCE prices and the Chicago PMI on friday.

LONG TERM: bull market

Technically, we have been tracking a bull market since March 2009. Our historical analysis of Secular cycles suggests a very significant low occurred at that time. The price low of the cycle. What always follows after this event is a bull market. The difficult part has been tracking this one, even though we know where the significant waves began and ended. Our preferred count remains unchanged. We're expecting a five Primary wave bull market to complete a Cycle wave [1]. The first two Primary waves completed in April and October 2011, at SPX 1371 and 1075 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since then.

In the DOW we have a clear five wave pattern up from the end of Primary wave II. We are counting it as five completed Intermediate waves ending Major wave 1 of Primary III. The recent, and possibly ongoing downtrend, is/will be labeled Major wave 2. Observe Major wave 1 of Primary I also subdivided into five Intermediate waves. And, Major wave 2 was a bit complex. We are maintaining a slightly different count on the SPX charts, as an alternate count. The SPX failed to make a new high, along with the DOW, in May. So its pattern deviated, somewhat, from the bellwether DOW. This has not occurred in over six years. It's a more bullish count and we give it a lower probability.

Fundamentally, the markets have been in a FED driven liquidity cycle since late 2008. When the Treasury Department started the $800 bln TARP program in October 2008, the FED initated QE1 at $200 bln. Clearly neither were enough to offset the deflationary pressures as the market made new lows into March 2009. Then on March 10th 2009 the FED expanded the QE1 program to $1.4 tln until June 2010. The stock market soared, rallying from a Mar09 low of SPX 667 to SPX 1220 by Apr10. Anticipating the end of QE1 the stock market began to correct. When the FED failed to extend QE1, or introduce a new program at their June meeting, the market made lower lows into July. From that low at SPX 1011 another rally began. Then on August 27th the FED introduced QE2 at $600 bln until June 2011. The market soared again, hitting SPX 1371 by May 2011. And again, it began to correct in anticipation of QE2 ending.

When the FED failed to introduce another liquidity program, and troubles in Europe widened, the correction steepened. While the stock market was going through this 22% correction the FED introduced a $400 bln Operation Twist on September 21st until June 2012. The market was disappointed and continued lower. In October 2011 the EU introduced a $1 tln EFSF program, similar to TARP. The market then bottomed at SPX 1075 and started to rally. The ECB then introducted LTRO 2 in December and the market continued to rally. In March 2012, anticipating the end of Op Twist in June, the market hit SPX 1422 and began to correct. This month the market hit a low of SPX 1267, then rallied for two weeks ahead of last week's FOMC meeting. After the meeting the FED expanded Op Twist from $400 to $667 bln until December 2012. The stock market quickly sold off the following day. This is a summary of the liquidity cycle and its effects on the stock market over the past four years.

If one examines the liquidity programs and their results they will discover a pattern. We are fairly certain the FED has as well. When the FED expanded QE1 to $1.4 tln the market closed that day at SPX 720. Before the program ended the SPX hit 1220, for a gain of 69%. When the FED introduced QE2 at $600 bln the market closed that day at SPX 1065. Before that program ended the SPX hit 1371, for a gain of 29%. Then when the FED introduced Op Twist for $400 bln the market closed that day at SPX 1167. The market was initially disappointed as it made a lower low. However before the program was recently expanded the SPX had hit 1422, for a gain of 22%. When the FED expanded the program this week by an odd $267 bln we figured they too had discovered the pattern.

For every $20 bln the FED purchases in long term debt the stock market rises 1%. QE1 was $1.4 tln: expected rise 70%, actual rise 69%. QE2 was $600 bln: expected rise 30%, actual rise 29%. Op Twist was $400 bln: expected rise 20%, actual rise 22%. Op Twist expanded to $667 bln: expected overall rise 33%, actual rise yet to be determined. In summary, when the FED introduced Op Twist for $400 bln they were expecting the market to rise 20%. Despite the decline after the introduction at SPX 1167, the market rose 22% to SPX 1422. Now, with the expansion of the program to $667 bln they are likely expecting an overall rise of 33.3% from the time the program was first introduced. Or, a rise of 13.3 % from the time it was extended. A 33.3% rise from SPX 1167 equals SPX 1556. A 13.3% rise from SPX 1356 equals SPX 1536. The all time high for the SPX is 1576. Mission almost accomplished!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely resuming

The recent downtrend began in May with the DOW high, or in March with the SPX high if you prefer. We prefer the bellwether DOW. From the May high the correction clearly took on the form of an ABC: [1415] 1291-1335-1267. After that low the market had a fairly good rally to SPX 1363, or better than a 61.8% retracement of the decline. We also received a WROC buy signal along the way, which are 90+% reliable that an uptrend is underway. The internal wave count of this rally, however, looks more corrective than impulsive. We tried to fit various potential impulse counts into this rally with little success. This leaves us with two potential alternatives. First, either the downtrend is still underway. Second, this is a corrective B wave uptrend.

This bull market has had B wave uptrends before in 2011. However, when we factor in the recent liquidity injection by the FED. This would appear to be an uncharacteristic response to the expansion of Operation Twist. The most probable scenario, considering the correctiveness of the rally, would be to retest the lows at SPX 1267 or make a lower low. When Op Twist was first introduced in September 2011 the market sold off about 100 points into the October low. Another 100 point decline, this time from SPX 1363, would retest the early June lows and likely end the correction with a Major wave 2 flat in early July. We have updated the SPX/DOW charts to display this most probable scenario.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX is at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral. The short term OEW charts remain with a negative bias with the swing point around SPX 1337.

The recent rally from SPX 1267 to 1363 started off impulsively as it was unfolding. We were expecting the rally to reach either the 1363 or 1372 pivots in a five wave sequence ahead of the FOMC meeting. The pattern, unfortunately, looked like three waves on tuesday as the FOMC began. After tuesday's high, and wednesday's volatility, the market sold off on thursday to SPX 1324. This selloff overlapped the first rally from SPX 1267 to 1329/36. This made the entire June rally look corrective. As a result we have labeled the SPX 1267 low as a wave A, and the recent rally as a wave B. The most probable scenario suggests a wave C is underway to either retest the June lows or make a lower low in early July.

Should the market exceed SPX 1363 before this occurs, we would assume the market is in a corrective larger B wave uptrend. Until this occurs the path of least resistance appears to be lower. Short term support is at SPX 1324/27 and the 1313/1303 pivots. Short term resistance is at SPX 1334/38, 1342/47 and the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum rebounded to neutral from extremely oversold. Should the market break the first support zone we'll assume the downtrend is resuming. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were quite mixed for a gain of 0.2%. No confirmed uptrends yet.

The European markets were all higher for a gain of 1.0%. Still all downtrends.

The Commodity equity group were all lower for a net loss of 2.0%.

The DJ World index is still downtrending and lost 0.3% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bond prices appear to be downtrending after their early June high. They lost 0.6% on the week. Corporate Bond risk has been declining rapidly suggesting the risk spread is narrowing.

Crude made another new low for its downtrend this week at $77.56. Crude declined 4.7% on the week. The lack of any QE programs are certainly impacting the commodity markets.

Gold lost 3.5% on the week as it appears its downtrend is continuing. For the first time since 2001 the long term pattern in Gold is starting to look negative.

The USD gained 0.8% on the week as stock market uncertainty fueled a one day spike in the USD. It is still officially in an uptrend.

NEXT WEEK

Monday kicks off an important economic week with New homes sales at 10:00. On tuesday we have Case-Shiller and Consumer confidence. Wednesday Durable goods orders and Pending home sales. Then on thursday Q1 GDP, estimate 1.9%, and weekly Jobless claims. On friday Personal income/spending, PCE prices, the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment. The FED has nothing scheduled. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Saturday, June 9, 2012

The start of something ... different: Raymond Merriman's 6/11/12 week preview comments

Those storm clouds last week did produce a new Fibonacci low in stocks, then a good rebound. Something different - but good, bad, or otherwise? We start our weekend as usual with Raymond Merriman's unique preview comments (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning June 11, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

We are now in the season of Gemini (May 21-June 20), and on Monday, June 11, Jupiter will begin its one-year trek through Gemini as well. And last week, stock and precious metals markets behaved in typical Gemini fashion. Equities in many world markets were down sharply early in the week under the lunar eclipse of Monday, June 4, with renewed threats of an exit of Greece from the Euro Union, on top of the prior Friday's weak jobs report in the USA. Stocks then rallied sharply into Thursday and Friday. The Gold and Silver markets continued their rallies from the prior week, topping out on Wednesday, June 6 as the Venus occultation of the Sun took place. The next day they began a sharp sell-off into Friday. Gold fell from a high of 1642.40 on June 6 to a low of 1556.40 two days later on June 8. Silver topped out at 2986 on Wednesday. Two days later it was down to 2791. European currencies rallied most of the week, but the Japanese Yen fell against the U.S. Dollar after making a secondary top just one week ago, June 1. In the meantime, Crude Oil continues its approach to 80.00/barrel after a three-day rally last week that also topped out on Thursday, June 7, at slightly above 87.00/barrel

Best Trades of the Past Week

Over the past few weekly columns, I have been inserting trading recommendations we have made to our subscribers. Readers seem to like this type of information as to just how accurate these reports, based on our unique timing methods, have been in many cases. Daily subscription report for last Monday, June 4, on the June E-Mini S&P: "Aggressive traders are flat and may buy daily support (1257-1262.50) and/or sell daily resistance, with a stop-loss on a close beyond either." The low that day was 1262 and it closed at 1273. The daily report for June 7 then advised, "… let's look to exit all (long) positions now with excellent profits at 1319.50 or higher if offered…" It was. The high that day was 1329.50 and it closed at 1316.75, so this was a gain of about 57 points in just three days for aggressive traders. Thursday's daily report for subscribers was also long Silver from the Venus retrograde of May 15-16, and advised, "Let's cover all now, sell short with a stop-loss on a close above 3020, and wait for a 10% decline to buy back." The open that day was 2946. SLV traders (the ETF on Silver) were long from 26.08 on May 16 (the low was 25.99). The report of Thursday, June 7, stated, "Cover all now and sell short with a stop-loss on a close above 2910 or 3000, depending on your risk allowance."The open that day was 28.74. The high was 28.76 and it closed at 27.79 that day, and was down to 27.32 by Friday, the next day.

Short-Term Geocosmics

"Meanwhile, the cliff that could break the economy's neck is the scheduled tax hikes. These include a tripling of the tax on dividends, a near 60% in the capital gains rate, a 20% increase in personal income tax that will hit small businesses…"- Wall Street Journal, "Bernanke's Cliffhanger," June 8, 2012. Last week was quite a week astrologically, beginning with Monday's lunar eclipse and retrograde change of direction of Neptune. Most stock indices bottomed out that day or early the next day, June 5. As we look at the movement of planets currently in effect, there are several factors to take into account. First, Venus remains retrograde through June 27. As indicated before, there would be changes of policies with some central banks during this period, and sure enough, China made the surprise announcement to lower their interest rates by a slight amount. In Japan, treasury officials announced that the renewed strength of the Yen was unacceptable, and all last week the value of the yen declined from these extremely high levels. Both the Federal Reserve and ECB (European Central Bank) pleaded with politicians to start doing their share of supporting a growth-oriented economy with sensible fiscal policies and not to rely so heavily upon them to continue with monetary stimulus policies. Their ammunition is running low to keep their economies – the world economy - from collapsing under the heap of out-of-control spending and the prospect of more taxes coming up. They call it a "fiscal cliff," and in the United States, that cliff looms heavy as of January 1. It is time for governments to start to asserting reforms in taxes and spending policies, or essentially to start behaving with some level of fiscal maturity and control to avoid the possibility of outright panic that would be consistent with the 33-month transit of Uranus in waxing square to Pluto, which officially starts June 24. But don't expect any solutions this month. But also expect an overabundance of suggested solutions starting this month and lasting for all of next year. Why? Because the Sun is in Gemini now (along with retrograde Venus), and on Monday, June 11, Jupiter will start its one-year transit through Gemini. Gemini is the sign of ideas – bright, smart, exciting ideas. But Jupiter is the sign of abundance or excess, so in effect, we have so many ideas – too many ideas – and the result could be a lot of talk but no agreement on action to take. Everyone is excited, but no one is taking responsibility or control for implementation. Everyone has a solution, but its all in the idea state. No one has any practical plan on how to get from here to the glory land that they all say is so right before us. Or if they do, they can't seem to get the other side to agree, and in one form of a classical Gemini characteristic, they project. That is, the debate descends to blaming others for not seeing the light that is obviously blinding anyone who has the courage to look at it seriously. So how do markets react when Jupiter is in Gemini, the sign considered to be Jupiter's detriment? Prices go up sharply, then down sharply, then back up again very sharply – or vice versa – in short bursts of hope, despair, more hope, and if lucky, resolution. If not lucky, then frustration and wariness from running around circles so much. The next two weeks will be a preview of the whole next year, for the Sun will be in Gemini then, and Jupiter will be in Gemini for the next year. There will be a lot of motion, a lot of re-doing of things searching for an agreeable conclusion. And many markets will likely make long-term cycle highs and lows and then reverse their trend during this time. And on top of all that, Uranus begins its seven-passage square to Pluto June 24, 2012, and it will last until March 17, 2015. In astrology, this defines unusual brilliance and out-of-the-box thinking, which is sorely needed. It also defines craziness and a knack for losing sight of common sense. Once again, it is time to fasten your seatbelts for a roller-coaster ride of great thrills and loud (but perhaps hilarious) sound bites of wisdom and zaniness. Sort of like the fight that broke out on a live television show in Athens, Greece, last week where a male member of Parliament slapped up a female member. How symbolic of the geocosmic signatures unfolding in June 2012, and which may carry in through June 2013. The price of maturity and common sense and self-control is being heavily discounted.

Longer-Term Thoughts and Transit Tales

Well, here is one positive manifestation of these transits, I hope. It's personal. It's about the new market timing academy I am starting up with Jupiter (education) in Gemini (learning and knowledge). And in typical Gemini expression, we are also making some important changes before we get it off the ground. Here is the latest update, consistent with Jupiter now in my ninth house of education, and the Venus occultation hitting my natal Moon's North Node in Gemini (and my natal Uranus), which is the finger of God in my natal Yod formation (to Venus-Jupiter conjunction in Scorpio, and Moon in Capricorn). This implies a new purpose and direction in life. Recently I announced the formation of an academy dedicated to the training of those who share my passion for market analysis and market timing. The name of the training institute was to be the Online Market Timing Academy (OLMTA). There has been a phenomenal response to the training which is very gratifying to me. To accommodate the new Academy into our office structure has bought about many exciting changes as my goal is to serve all the new academy clients in the same professional manner that our existing clients have enjoyed over the years. Some of the changes include moving to a much larger office space, obtaining faster internet service, upgrading our phone system, and hiring a project coordinator for the Academy. And there is one more important change. As many of you already know, I obtained the domain name Online Market Timing Academy (OLMTA) in 1993. At that time I thought that was good descriptive name for the anticipated academy. However, today that name does not encompass all the planned activities that the academy will pursue in the future. The new name has now been changed to "Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA)." To avoid any confusion that the name change might create please understand that all communications, applications and website postings using the old name are all valid and unchanged. Only the name has changed. We will keep everyone updated via this weekly report as well as on our new websites at www.merrimanmta.com and merrimanmarkettiming academy.com, which will be up and running very shortly, well in time for registering for our introductory course on "Basic Principles of Financial Astrology for Financial Market Timing," to take place September b15-16 in Troy, Michigan (juts outside of Detroit). It will be available as a live Webinar too. See announcements below.

Also keep in mind the special Gold workshop to take place on June 23, right in the middle of this most significant geocosmic time band of the year, in Amsterdam, Netherlands. See announcements below.

Announcements

June 23: A special 5-hour workshop on "The Gold Market: Forecasting the Future Price of Gold and Silver." 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM, Hotel Park Plaza Victoria. Amsterdam, Damrak 1-5, Amsterdam 1012 LG, Netherlands. Sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. This is a special workshop on precious metals you will not want to miss!!! Cost is €345 ex VAT. Subscribers of any MMA reports (trials excluded) receive a 15% discount. For further information, please go to http://www.markettiming.nl/en/producten/workshop-gold-silver, or call 31 (02) 294 415 917, or by fax at31 (02) 294-415-918 to register for an exciting event in one of the world's most exciting cities at the most exciting time of the year: the first Uranus-Pluto square will be taking place then, right near the summer solstice! This will be special, and a great opportunity to meet some very impressive market timers who will be present. Register now as seating is limited! And a special bonus through Monday, June 4!!! A 45 € discount will be extended until Monday, June 4!!! As of this writing, there are about 20 people registered for this special event. Come join us and learn where Gold prices are headed in the next six months and next six years! Recently I announced that I will be starting a new direction in life over the next two years, involving a mentor-apprenticeship program on Financial Market Timing and Analysis, according to the unique methodology I have developed over the past 30+ years. I didn't expect any response yet, as we are still developing the format. But… there has been a huge response! We know we are behind the curve on getting out information on this rapidly developing project, but we are working out the details and more announcements will be made shortly. So far we have determined that the training will take place over eight weekends stretching from 2013-2014. The dates for 2013 have now been selected. They are: April 6-8, June 15-17, Aug 10-12, and Oct 12-14. The 2014 schedule will be determined in 2013. These 8 sessions will be the only time that Raymond Merriman will give this entire training in person. Applications for the "On Line Market Timing Academy" (OLMTA) are being accepted now. There will be an introductory training session, September 15-16 in Troy, Michigan (see below). For more information, or an application form, please contact Amber Lundsten at ordersmma@msn.com, call 1-248-626-3034, or go to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/latest-news/ray-merriman%92s--online-market-timing-academy-%28olmta%29/, or scroll down the opening page (next page) of www.mmacycles.com. Raymond Merriman's "Market Timing Academy" (MMTA) will offer a pre-training course on "Beginning Principles of Financial Astrology for Financial Market Timing," September 15-16, in Troy, Michigan, at the Management Education Center of Michigan State University. This 10-12 hour course may be attended live, in person, or via webcast televised to your computer. An archive of this workshop will be available for 30 days afterwards to those who sign up. This workshop will basically train non-astrologers in the use of reading an ephemeris, the table of planetary positions for any given day. This is essential to anyone who wishes to understand how to find a geocosmic critical reversal date for financial markets. This course (or audit of it) is a pre-requisite for anyone entering the MMTA market training course, as developed and instructed by Raymond Merriman. The MMTA two-year training course will begin in April 2013, and will involve 8 weekends of study – 4 weekends each in 2013 and 2014. For more information and registration, please go to www.mmacycles.com (front page, near bottom). We will make announcements as this training program unfolds. The cost for the September 15-16 pre-training workshop is $395.00 ($300 for MMA subscribers). This cost will be deducted from the fee of the two-year training course to those who apply and are accepted into MMTA by late October 2012.

The DVD of the Denver Workshop on Financial Market Timing is now available!!! This financial markets workshop offers a completely unique and original perspective, integrating 1) Market Timing studies, 2) Price Objective calculations, 3) Technical Analysis, 4) Pattern Recognition studies, and 5) Trend Analysis. The primary focus of this workshop is on Market Timing Studies, particularly Cycles Analysis and Geocosmic Studies, as leading indicators that identify when to anticipate a reversal in all financial markets. Gold and the U.S. stock market are studied in great detail, especially regarding their current status. There is a wealth of timely and valuable information in this DVD, especially pertaining the forthcoming Venus retrograde period (May 15-June 27), the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012, lasting through March 2015, and the important Jupiter correlation to stock market cycles coming up August-November 2012 and March-May 2013. The cost for this 4-hour DVD workshop is $180.00 plus postage. To order, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/dvd-of-boulder-workshop-on-financial-market-timing!!!/. Or call Amber at 1-248-626-3034. If you are a trader or investor who appreciates the value of market timing – especially in the next few months – this is a presentation you will not want to miss!

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

Our 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

EVENTS:

June 23: Amsterdam. A special 5-hour workshop on "The Gold Market: Forecasting the Future Price of Gold and Silver." 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM, Hotel Park Plaza Victoria. Amsterdam, Damrak 1-5, Amsterdam 1012 LG, Netherlands. Sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. This is a special workshop on precious metals you will not want to miss!!! Cost is € 345 ex VAT. Subscribers of any MMA reports (trials excluded) receive a 15% discount. For further information, please go to http://www.markettiming.nl/en/producten/workshop-gold-silver for an exciting event in one of the world's most exciting cities at the most exciting time of the year: the first Uranus-Pluto square will be taking place then, right near the summer solstice! And in this workshop, you will learn about one particular geocosmic signature that last about 6 weeks that has a 90+% correlation to big rallies in Gold and Silver, and will be coming up shortly after the seminar. Will you be ready? This will be special. You may also register by calling 31 (02) 294 415 917, or by fax at 31 (02) 294-415-918. Register now as seating is limited!

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, Holiday Inn, 3600 Plymouth Rd, in beautiful Ann Arbor, Michigan. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology and Financial Market Timing with Raymond Merriman on Thursday, August 2. Featuring over 20 astrologers, including Michael Lutin, Chris McRae, Bob Thibodeau, Dennis Fairchild, Monica Dimino, Richard Smoot, Grace Morris and others. For more information, call 303-828-5445, 303-604-2777, or email macasrtrology@yahoo.com, or go to http://macastrology.tripod.com/.

September 15-16, 2012: Troy, Michigan. MMTA – the Merriman Market Timing Academy – will conduct its pre-curriculum introductory workshop on "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing." This will be an introductory course on how to read an ephemeris and how to calculate a critical reversal date. It is open to anyone, but understanding this material is mandatory for anyone entering the MMA mentor-apprenticeship program that will officially start in April 2013. This introductory workshop will be available as a live webinar too. The cost is $300 to subscribers of any MMA subscription report, or $395 to others. Deadline for registration to this workshop is September 1, 2013. For further information, please visit http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/, or the bottom of the opening page on www.mmacycles.com. Or contact mmacustomerservice@gmail.com or ordersmmma@msn.com,

April 6-8, 2013: MMTA Course 1: "Cycles and Chart Patterns in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This course will outline the various cycles (long-, intermediate-, and short-term) in financial markets, and the various patterns that unfold in each. It will instruct on trading and investment strategies for each type of cycle, as well as their phases. This will be the first of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA). It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.

June 15-17, 2013: MMTA Course 2: "Geocosmic Correlations to Long-Term Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This course will review long-term cycles in various financial markets, their phases, and the long-term planetary signatures that correlate with them for market timing purposes. It will instruct on how to use these planetary cycles as part of a longer-term investment strategy. This will be the second of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy. It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.

August 10-12, 2013: MMTA Course 3: "Geocosmic Correlations to Primary and Trading Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This course will review trading cycles in various financial markets, their phases, and the planetary signatures that correlate with them for market timing purposes. It will instruct on how to calculate and use a critical reversal date for trading purposes, with emphasis on Level 1, 2 and 3 planetary signatures. This will be the third of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy. It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.

October 12-14, 2013: MMTA Course 4: "Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Reversals in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This course will instruct on various solar-lunar combinations that have high correlations to 4% or greater reversals for 1-4 days in stock indices and the Silver market. It will instruct on how to identify a proper set up for applying a buy or sell point when these solar-lunar cycles indicate a reversal is likely to occur. This will be the fourth of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy. It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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Friday, May 11, 2012

Bond bubble alive & well - what to get ready for in US Treasuries

Got TLT? It's okay if you do because the US Treasury bonds bubble is alive and well! Recently it's launched a run toward new highs, probably squeezing a lot of shorts by now. I don't know if the JP Morgan situation is directly related but maybe indirectly. For a long time now, I've been pointing out that Fibonacci projections based on the monthly chart pattern point to at least $150 in both $USB (long bonds) and $UST (10-year notes). So I've discouraged my readers from shorting them. I'm glad I got it right! Wait until $150 is tagged in either or both $USB and $UST, and after that, make sure you see a discernible reversal pattern to be confident that the trend indeed reverses from bullish to bearish.

My own charts are below, but first look at today's free chart analysis by Tom McClellan, "Is JPM "The Burning LOH"? - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial" at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/is_jpm_the_burning_loh/. Tom McClellan had said a few weeks ago that US bonds would rally again. He was right on that, and now he's suggesting we may be getting near a peak. I don't think he has a specific price target, however. Read his article to understand what he's saying about his chart:
Chart In Focus

He points out that bonds often peak at crisis times. So it might not be just the Federal Reserve purchases and "Operation Twist". Yet it's interesting that the Fed currently plans to discontinue that level of purchases. Another reason why US bond prices could correct AFTER hitting peak price targets. (So after there's a trend reversal confirmed, KI$$ investors can sell TLT and buy TBT if that looks appropriate for their strategies.)

Can I guarantee the $150 Fibonacci and P&F price target? Of course not a guarantee - but the rally has strength. It's even possible the price may overshoot $150, so that's why investors and traders should look for a reversal pattern in any event.

The Fibonacci projection to $150 is also supported by point & figure projections, and by the indicators which continue to be supportive. As I mentioned, I'm glad to see Tom McClellan addressed this because it dovetails with the bullish projection I've been pointing out for weeks (even months). Here are my basic charts (from Stockcharts.com) for $USB the US long-term bonds. First the daily, then the monthly. Notice there's just a hint of negative divergence that will be important if it persists as $USB pikes new highs. But the monthly StochRSI did a bullish midline retest as price pulled back - that supports the likelihood that the US long-term Treasury bonds should continue to new highs and meet the $150 projection.

And finally here's the default point & figure chart for $USB from Stockcharts.com. Notice that it never did break support and still sports a bullish projection to $150:

Friday, May 4, 2012

Big step toward important mid-May signatures: Raymond Merriman's 5/7/12 week preview comments

After some days more bullish than many expected, today was a wash down for a net sideways for a number of trading days. Maybe because mid-May (and/or early June) is the time that KI$$ investors/swing traders should look for the next good buying opportunity. For insight, read this weekend's set of preview comments by Raymond Merriman (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning May 7, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

If you are not confused yet about what is happening in financial markets, then you are not paying attention. Last week there were more divergences. We've got divergences upon divergences, which mean half the community of market analysts will see signs for being bullish and the other half cause for being bearish, and both politicians and market commentators can take their pick as to which trend to acknowledge backing up their case, er… bias.

Let's take a couple of examples from last week's market activity. On Tuesday, May 1, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to its highest price in 4 years. After making a 3-month low just three weeks earlier on April 10 (nearby to Mars turning direct), this would appear to be a bullish chart pattern to most market watchers. But also on May 1, neither the S&P nor NASDAQ futures were able to take out their recent highs of late March and early April, which created a case of intermarket bearish divergence. Still, they looked healthy and as if they would make new highs – until Friday. And then everything changed as the NASDAQ fell to its lowest price since early March. The DJIA plunged 168 points and the S&P futures fell 23-1/2 points. The decline in the DJIA is within a normal 38-62% corrective pullback of the move up from April 10, which would seem bullish. But in the NASDAQ, the pullback was closer to 100%. Those with a bearish bias would see the NASDAQ as bearish and those who with a bullish bias would see the DJIA as undergoing a normal corrective decline. Financial astrologers would be wondering: what is Neptune doing? Neptune is not doing much, but Mercury is in opposition to Saturn as we head into the weekend of a Taurus-Scorpio full moon. Monday and Tuesday finds the Moon in Sagittarius too (the "Sagittarius Factor," and maybe big range days). This can be stressful and a sign of worry and apprehension. But the "magnet" pulling prices down is Venus about to turn retrograde on May 15. We are within days of that cosmic event now, which is close enough for it to have an impact on market behavior. Once this energy reaches its climax that is due within two weeks of May 15, history says there is an approximately 75% probability of a big reversal.

Another example of this wild, whacky, and weird cosmic environment showed up in the precious metals. Gold and Silver were recovering nicely from their sell-off lows of April 25 the prior week. By Tuesday, May 1, Gold was up to 1672. By Friday it was trading below 1630 again, testing those lows of April 25. Silver took out those lows, and in fact fell to its lowest level since January, while Gold held well above its 1613 low of April 4. But by Friday's close, both metals were up rather nicely on the day. Hence we have an intermarket bullish divergence set up developing here. But will any of these markets really reverse before we get closer to Venus changing directions on May 15, despite these potentially bullish signals? We will discuss this more in the "Longer-Term Thoughts" for this week.

Short-Term Geocosmics

The most outstanding geocosmic signatures looming on the horizon is still Venus turning retrograde on May 15. Stock markets have a 73% correlation to completing an important cycle low or high within 12 trading days of this event, and usually much less. We note now that the Ten-Year Treasury Notes are soaring to a new contract high as of Friday, May 4, but the same is not true with the 30-Year Treasury Bonds. This is significant because 1) the Fed is about to end "Operation Twist," where it buys wheelbarrows full of long-term U.S. Treasuries, thereby supporting the advance in treasury values, and 2) Uranus is coming ever closer to the first passage of its waxing square to Pluto (June 24), which Financial Astrologers might look upon as a "party crasher." Plus there are a slew of important Venus signatures coming up (see "Longer-Term Thoughts"). It would seem there might be some intense fireworks happening between May 15 and late June, for this is like a match being set to a fuse of dynamite …er, fireworks.

Longer-Term Thoughts

"The difference between you and me is that you want fewer rich people and I want fewer poor people." – Nicholas Sarkozy, French president, in a debate with Francois Hollande, his Socialist party opponent in this week's elections (Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2012).

Let's discuss Venus this week. After all, Venus is going to be quite prominent in the weeks ahead, due to its 6-week retrograde motion that will be in effect May 15 through June 27, and also due to its very rare occultation to the Sun on June 6-7 (that's like Venus eclipsing the Sun).

Venus turns retrograde about every 19 months, so it is somewhat infrequent – about as often as the Moon's North Node transiting through each sign of the zodiac. But every 8 years it goes retrograde and direct in approximately the same degree of the zodiac. For instance, this year Venus will turn retrograde at nearly 24° Gemini on May 15. Eight years ago it turned retrograde at 26º Gemini on May 17, 2004. As a side note, the Dow Jones Industrial Average formed a primary cycle trough on May 12, 2004 at 9852, and 5 days later on May 17 it made a successful re-test of that low (i.e. double bottom) at 9862, and then prices rose sharply into a primary cycle crest in late June when Venus turned direct six weeks later. As documented in "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles," Venus retrograde and direct periods are two of the strongest historical geocosmic correlates to primary or greater cycles – or major reversals – in stock prices.

This powerful correlation should not be surprising to students of Financial Astrology. In the study of astrology, Venus rules money - as well as love. And of course in the reality of today's times, no money, no love (actually, it should be the other way around). Or according to a popular Chinese saying, no money, no life! But Venus moves so quickly through the signs that long-term trends involving Venus are hard to identify. It is a short-term transit, and therefore its value is mostly in terms of short-term reversals. Oh, we can look at slow moving planetary transits to natal Venus in a nation's chart and forecast the trend of that particular nation's economy and currency. Venus in the USA's chart, for instance, is in the first degrees of Cancer, which has been besieged by both Pluto and Uranus from 2008 through 2011, and that correlated to quite a suppression in the value of the U.S. Dollar in comparison to other world currencies. But how do you use Venus to track longer-term financial trends in the greater world? For that you need a long-term Venus phenomenon. And the key for that may be the Venus occultation.

That's right. Venus is moving toward a very rare occultation with the Sun on June 6, 2012. That is, Venus will move directly between the Earth and Sun on that day, creating the appearance of a small black spec on the surface of the Sun. If Venus was bigger, it would block out the Sun as seen from Earth, just as the Moon does during a total solar eclipse. Except that this Venus occultation is much rarer than a solar eclipse. Solar eclipses happen about twice a year. And Venus occultations take place in pairs that are eight years apart over a long period of time. The last instance of a Venus occultation of the Sun took place in 1874 and 1882. This is the last one to occur this century. According to Steven van Roode (http://transitofvenus.nl/),"But a transit of Venus (occultation to the Sun)… occur(s) in a pattern that repeats every 243 years, with pairs of transits eight years apart separated by long gaps of 121.5 years and 105.5 years. The last pair was in 1874/1882, the current pair is2004/2012 and the next pair is scheduled for2117/2125. So, this year's transit of Venus is your last chance to see this phenomenon." Let's see… the last one occurred in 1874-1882 and before that it was in 1761 and 1769.

Hmmm, according to our studies, the first case of a long-term cycle low in stocks used in our studies occurred in 1761-1762. That was the starting point from which all of our longer-term stock market cycles (the 72- and 90-year types) commenced. And the 1874-1882 occultation pair? That overlapped the longest economic depression in the United States (1873-1879), which was also the last time that Uranus and Pluto were in a waxing square aspect – the same aspect that starts June 24. 2012 and lasts until March 17, 2015.

Since Venus rules money, and occultations (or eclipses) oftentimes signal a dramatic change of the status quo, the Venus occultation period of 2004-2012 may be a direct correlation to the world's debt, which has simply been exploding since 2004 (when this pair of Venus occultation to the Sun began). And this leads us right into the current and sudden shift of political and economic strategies in Europe, dovetailing with the swoon in equity prices last week.

European austerity measures as part of the solution to its debt crisis are on the verge of being given up already. Recent economic data shows a large number of European countries – including the United Kingdom – are in or near a recession. Over the past several months, many of these nations have increased taxes on top of their already very high taxes and have recently begun to cut back spending in order to meet strict budget projections. This is what austerity is all about. It's about making sacrifices. It's about a long-term commitment to rid the waste in spending. It's about Pluto in Capricorn.

But what they are finding out is that higher taxes combined with less spending together do not lead to greater revenues, something that dozens of studies have demonstrated in the past. It also leads to a rebellious and socially restless population that votes out its leaders who promised to fix the situation, and who probably realize that the only way to fix the problem is to - guess what? – implement austerity measures just like this! But it is not popular. So, in typical political reaction, critics of the "non-austerity" measures will promise relief, and usually only in the form of greater spending again, but not lower taxes.

So rather than lowering taxes, which would encourage businesses to hire and consumers to spend, they have decided to alleviate the pain and sacrifice (and enhance their chances of being elected or re-elected) by spending more money that they don't have and thus increase their national debts, in the hopes that this will indeed lead to new jobs and more tax payers. ECB President Mario Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are trying to maintain the support for these austerity measures (i.e. advising nations to reign in their spending and get in place a more responsible fiscal policy to bring down their debt). But they are losing support, as is Sarkozy. To put it simply, many countries are giving up their original aim to reduce debts by accepting austerity measures. They have raised the white flag on controlling debt and instead they will monetize, or inflate their way out (of course, they won't say this, but that is the logical conclusion of this policy).

Longer-term, this shift will probably be great for Gold, but not good for European currencies. And really, was there any doubt that the political (but not economic) gurus would surrender the good and necessary fight and take the easy way out, which will only lead to a further massive debt explosion and probably inflation, maybe even hyper-inflation? Not likely with Uranus square Pluto, 2012-2015. Not likely with Saturn also still plodding forward to its conjunction with Pluto in 2020. Remember the last time Saturn was in its waning phase to Pluto? It was 1966-1982. And you might remember what the last years of that period was like in terms of inflation.