Folks, once again we can celebrate new stockmarket highs while continuing to be concerned about resistance levels and concerning indicators. In this post, I'm continuing my new format of providing links to the great work of other folks, where it's available, interweaving my own observations (and will post such other analysts work in the entirety if it isn't available elsewhere). The observations from last week projecting to a low on August 2 worked out incredibly well. I don't know if will always be that good, but now we are looking for a High Point early to middle of the upcoming week. I posted via Twitter my own charts showing the very noticeable negative divergence on the McClellan Oscillator charts for both NYSE and the NASDAQ. The McClellan Summation Index also has been rolling over. Which is concerning for the intermediate to longer-term. The volatility index dropped smartly, and it may be showing a potential profit-taking (or cell) time. Monday or Tuesday, possibly as late as Wednesday.
If it were just the VIX, that wouldn't be enough to call a top. It's the negative divergence that plays into this as well. Frankly, sentiment indicators are mixed. So it's also worth looking at other methods. One of those is Elliott Wave analysis, so be sure to review Tony Caldaro's weekend update | the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on, at http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/weekend-update-356/. Tony's update this weekend discusses why the stock market needs to start moving more smoothly upward, and not in more choppiness, in order to look bullish. He also talks about the importance of SPX 1355. He's made the great observation that on Thursday, the SPX tested 1355 as a 61.8% retracement to the prior week's low.
Mike Burke has produced his usual solid technical analysis report for the stock market, Technical Market Report for August 4, 2012 | Mike Burk | Safehaven.com, at http://www.safehaven.com/article/26426/technical-market-report-for-august-4-2012. This weekend, he's looking at the breadth indicators so you can see what he finds concerning, but also pointing out that seasonality favors a continued move to push higher in the upcoming week. Of course, read his report at this link to see the details and his conclusions.
The guys at "Change In Trend" are delighted about having nailed the low last week, so you'll want to see what they're saying about the potential for a high point around August 9, at The Drop Zone | Change-In-Trend: http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/the-drop-zone/.
The technicians at MIG Bank publish fairly often at Safe Haven their analysis updates of currencies, gold and silver. In their latest at http://www.safehaven.com/article/26420/fed-hits-kill-switch-on-liquidity suggest that the euro is running right into resistance at slightly above 1.24 ($XEU, EUR/USD). If that's right, then the concomitant strength in the US dollar may provide a headwind for stocks, supporting the idea that stocks may stall out at resistance in the next few days.
Raymond Merriman had pointed out that August 2 would be an important date, and also that the time around August 8 will be one to watch next. In this weekend's preview column, he discusses in more detail what we should look out for this week as well as the rest of this month (even including the President's birthday August 4). Check it out at http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-6,-2012/.
For the bigger perspective, Droke has written an article at http://www.safehaven.com/article/26420/fed-hits-kill-switch-on-liquidity about the interaction of the Fed and central banks' decisions on liquidity, and the long-wave cycles. He doesn't seem to indicate whether he believes the market will move to new all-time highs, but he does seem to think that after early 2013 the dominant pressure is downward.
Showing posts with label Others on the Web. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Others on the Web. Show all posts
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Thoughts on a small pullback before SPX moves higher in early August 2012
There appear to be various indications that we could have a small pullback before the stock market moves higher. Such a pullback might last for only one day, so be aware of that. The FOMC is coming up next week, and normally we would also expect the new months, new money effect to produce higher prices in the later part of the week, August 1-3. At this point, be prepared for the possibility of a dip on Monday, and then be alert for whether Thursday, August 2 will be a high or low. A pullback may only retest SPX 1350's to 1360. Be sure to read Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave weekend update at http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/weekend-update-355/. He mentions the importance of SPX 1344 in case there's an overbought pullback. He also addresses bonds, currencies, commodities, and other countries' indices.
A potential wildcard in all this is that today, July 28, is a Bradley turn date. I'm told that the Bradley turn dates have been having better accuracy this year. Normally, I don't put much stock in them, and even today we cannot be certain whether this is producing a high right now, or will it simply give us a pullback before a further move up. Just something to keep in mind with all else.
One concerning note is that the McClellan Oscillator didn't make a higher high than it did early July, which looks like a non- confirmation so far. It's early yet, so just another reason to consider a pullback. It'll become more concerning if the indices advance higher without higher highs in the oscillator. It's the one chart I wanted to include with this post (other charts I already posted last night via Twitter) but having technical difficulty click on the Twitter pic link to see it: . The Summation Index is also rolling over, which supports the concerns that the longer term might not be so good either. There's a similar point about the VIX, it made a higher low (not a lower low) so that's a bearish divergence. Also there's a short- term trading signal on VIX that bought Thursday and closes out Monday. Again just something to consider for the weeks ahead. It's also noteworthy that the Dow Industrials $DJI $INDU are stronger, while the Nasdaq 100 $NDX and Russell 2000 $RUT are weaker.
Assuming we pullback a day or so, before we move higher, how high? There seem to be various reasons to expect the SPX to rise above 1400 again.** After that, it's a matter of whether this really is a bull market that will carry on to new higher highs, or at least rise above 1500 again. Or, will the market roll over again and retest the June 4 lows about 1260's to 1280, or go even lower. Personally, I think it can go either way. That's why I think it is increasingly important to be flexible, and to pay attention to timing since the timing of a low or high - rather than absolute price - can be the way to decide whether to hold or fold, and when to re-enter.
**NOTE - I just watched and do recommend Chris Ciovacco's charts analysis video at http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/stock-market-us/bulls-still-in-control/ covering the SPX, equities in general such as other countries and financials, the VIX, internals and breadth, and DeMark indicators status & projections. I'm impressed by the quality and clarity of his analysis; so I highly recommend watching it. Doesn't change my thinking but he does a great job of showing why this market is more bullish than many realize - if support holds!
One cycles source that is proving to be very interesting is the "Change in Trend" blog, and you should take a look at the new post there, at http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/the-drop-zone/. Their information suggests that August 9 may be a high, and I am also seeing from various cycle methods that August 6-9, and especially August 8 or 9, may be a very significant high.
The week that includes August 8 and 9 is also an important week in terms of the Tom Demark indicators, I've been told. I'm no expert in that method, although I have begun to study up. It is my understanding that, since that will be week 9 after the June 4 low, and so long as the Demark support levels are not violated (seems no problem now), the market will be set up for a "Wave C" down to retest the June 4 lows. So that's something to consider too!
This is all in context of the bigger cycles. It's important to understand that the four-year cycle may or may not have topped out. If it has, then the idea of retesting and moving under the June 4 lows becomes quite serious. Otherwise, if the four-year cycle has not topped out, then we could see higher prices around October to November 2012, and even during the year 2013. I've seen good analyses that would project an important peak either in the spring, or in Jun, or August 2013.
One more note: Terry Laundry passed away earlier this month. His remarkable T Theory - which many appreciated, and others don't agree - often pointed to important tops. He used to provide audio commentary about this at TTheory.com. His last commentary July 7, 2012 described a mega-T that topped mid-2011 and another (40-year vintage) that topped March 2012. He seemed to think that was it, and the market shouldn't produce any new higher highs for a few years. The work will be left to Parker Binion who's carrying forward Terry's work to help determine if there might be any more ancient T's that might produce higher highs, or was the early 2012 peak all that we get before the bear market sets in.
May as well note also that Martin Armstrong has written a new post at his blog, at http://armstrongeconomics.com/2012/07/28/dow-jones-rally/. He doesn't get very specific for free, but mentions both the ideas of a high August or September, along with a possible panic but not clear if that might be during August or more in September, even October.
These are ideas to ponder until we get past mid-August. For now, it's a matter of navigating the next two weeks.
A potential wildcard in all this is that today, July 28, is a Bradley turn date. I'm told that the Bradley turn dates have been having better accuracy this year. Normally, I don't put much stock in them, and even today we cannot be certain whether this is producing a high right now, or will it simply give us a pullback before a further move up. Just something to keep in mind with all else.
One concerning note is that the McClellan Oscillator didn't make a higher high than it did early July, which looks like a non- confirmation so far. It's early yet, so just another reason to consider a pullback. It'll become more concerning if the indices advance higher without higher highs in the oscillator. It's the one chart I wanted to include with this post (other charts I already posted last night via Twitter) but having technical difficulty click on the Twitter pic link to see it: . The Summation Index is also rolling over, which supports the concerns that the longer term might not be so good either. There's a similar point about the VIX, it made a higher low (not a lower low) so that's a bearish divergence. Also there's a short- term trading signal on VIX that bought Thursday and closes out Monday. Again just something to consider for the weeks ahead. It's also noteworthy that the Dow Industrials $DJI $INDU are stronger, while the Nasdaq 100 $NDX and Russell 2000 $RUT are weaker.
Assuming we pullback a day or so, before we move higher, how high? There seem to be various reasons to expect the SPX to rise above 1400 again.** After that, it's a matter of whether this really is a bull market that will carry on to new higher highs, or at least rise above 1500 again. Or, will the market roll over again and retest the June 4 lows about 1260's to 1280, or go even lower. Personally, I think it can go either way. That's why I think it is increasingly important to be flexible, and to pay attention to timing since the timing of a low or high - rather than absolute price - can be the way to decide whether to hold or fold, and when to re-enter.
**NOTE - I just watched and do recommend Chris Ciovacco's charts analysis video at http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/stock-market-us/bulls-still-in-control/ covering the SPX, equities in general such as other countries and financials, the VIX, internals and breadth, and DeMark indicators status & projections. I'm impressed by the quality and clarity of his analysis; so I highly recommend watching it. Doesn't change my thinking but he does a great job of showing why this market is more bullish than many realize - if support holds!
One cycles source that is proving to be very interesting is the "Change in Trend" blog, and you should take a look at the new post there, at http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/07/28/the-drop-zone/. Their information suggests that August 9 may be a high, and I am also seeing from various cycle methods that August 6-9, and especially August 8 or 9, may be a very significant high.
The week that includes August 8 and 9 is also an important week in terms of the Tom Demark indicators, I've been told. I'm no expert in that method, although I have begun to study up. It is my understanding that, since that will be week 9 after the June 4 low, and so long as the Demark support levels are not violated (seems no problem now), the market will be set up for a "Wave C" down to retest the June 4 lows. So that's something to consider too!
This is all in context of the bigger cycles. It's important to understand that the four-year cycle may or may not have topped out. If it has, then the idea of retesting and moving under the June 4 lows becomes quite serious. Otherwise, if the four-year cycle has not topped out, then we could see higher prices around October to November 2012, and even during the year 2013. I've seen good analyses that would project an important peak either in the spring, or in Jun, or August 2013.
One more note: Terry Laundry passed away earlier this month. His remarkable T Theory - which many appreciated, and others don't agree - often pointed to important tops. He used to provide audio commentary about this at TTheory.com. His last commentary July 7, 2012 described a mega-T that topped mid-2011 and another (40-year vintage) that topped March 2012. He seemed to think that was it, and the market shouldn't produce any new higher highs for a few years. The work will be left to Parker Binion who's carrying forward Terry's work to help determine if there might be any more ancient T's that might produce higher highs, or was the early 2012 peak all that we get before the bear market sets in.
May as well note also that Martin Armstrong has written a new post at his blog, at http://armstrongeconomics.com/2012/07/28/dow-jones-rally/. He doesn't get very specific for free, but mentions both the ideas of a high August or September, along with a possible panic but not clear if that might be during August or more in September, even October.
These are ideas to ponder until we get past mid-August. For now, it's a matter of navigating the next two weeks.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Chart of the Day: Debt to GDP of PIIGS plus Major Countries
Here's another way to look at the apparent US Treasury bond bubble, in which bond prices have continued to hold up well. It may have something to do with comparing the alternatives. Of course there are other factors too. The interesting chart and info below are from the folks at http://www.chartoftheday.com:
Chart of the Day: Debt to GDP of PIIGS plus Major Countries
June 22, 2013
For some perspective on the European sovereign debt crisis, today's chart illustrates the forecasted 2012 debt to GDP ratio for each of the PIIGS (red bars) plus a handful of today's major economies (blue bars). While the PIIGS are currently enduring relatively high debt loads, it is noteworthy how some of the relatively safe nations/bond markets (e.g. United State and Germany) are not far behind. These relatively high debt loads are of concern as they could lead to higher taxes sometime in the future and can risk fiscal crises if bond holders sense an increasing risk of default. The current crisis in Europe provides a clear example of the bond market's reaction (i.e. higher bond yields) to increased default fears. This leads to a very interesting case study that is Japan. With a debt to GDP ratio of over 200%, the Japanese 10-year bond yield is a relatively low 0.83%. Why? At the moment, the bond market feels that the Japanese have the ability to repay their debts -- in part due to Japan's perceived ability to raise taxes. To that end, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiko Noda just won opposition support for the doubling of the nation's sales tax to 10% by 2015. So it's not just the amount of debt but also convincing your banker that you are good for it.Notes:Where's the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron's recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.Rate today's Chart of the DayBy voting every day you help us get you the charts you want to see.
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Saturday, June 2, 2012
It's ok, Bill Gross - safe to look at shorting US long bonds now! Chart analysis
Too bad Bill Gross of PIMCO shorted the US long bond last year - way too soon! I posted often in past months about the $150 target is the US Treasury long bond ($USB or in futures, /ZB), and it finally got there the past two days! Andre Gratian with his Market Turning Points also stated that TLT, the corresponding ETF, had a projection to $129 which happened yesterday. Now it's reached target, it's safe to look for a trend reversal sending bond prices lower and the yields higher.
NOTE - we still must be on the safe side, and look for a pattern reversal before being aggressive on this. Otherwise, it remains within the realm of possibility that if there is a stockmarket meltdown, US bonds could remain afloat indefinitely as investors seek their safety.
It's quite possible that shorter-term notes like the 1-year, 2-year and perhaps 10-year may hold up relatively better. I'm guessing the longer-dated 20- or 30-year bonds may fall relatively more. By the way, others are taking note including the great folks at MrTopStep.com (tweeting at MrTopStep) as well as a very nice three-decade look at the price resistance by Tom McClellan at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/full-on_panic_into_t-bonds/. Since I've already hammered on the topic of waiting until $150 was met before shorting, I'll now start talking about what pullback levels to expect. First, a look at the daily chart of $USB shows that there's support initially about $147, then stronger support around $144 to look for (and isn't 144 such a nice Fibonacci number anyway!). Then around $136 is another retrace/support area; then of course $120 eventually. After price starts dropping under $150, we should start looking for around $144, then look at how it's shaping up. Here's the daily, then there are more charts below.
Below is the monthly chart. Once you start looking at it, you can see that $150 was presaged not only by a Fibonacci "butterfly" after the breakout and point-&-figure (P&F) charting, but also a long-term inverse head-&-shoulders and a symmetrical C=A type of wave structure. The latter gives a Fibonacci "shark attack" pattern pullback target at least to the same $144 level that the bearish butterfly targets. So we must first look for a trend reversal pattern (selling volumes and embarking on lower lows as it moves). This is critical because theoretically it could also go to a higher projection at $160 although that's much less likely. Then on a reversal, we should start to be able to see if it's going into a bigger-picture long-term trend reversal, and what targets come into focus.
Finally, below are daily and monthly P&F charts. Once $USB starts breaking support levels - $136 in particular, and eventually $120 after likely back-and-forth waves and over time - we can calculate more targets for downtrending prices. The trendlines on the P&F charts also suggest support areas. If those hold, then it remains possible to see $160 in $USB. If that happens, then it's still a bearish butterfly setup for a pullback if not a trend reversal.
NOTE - we still must be on the safe side, and look for a pattern reversal before being aggressive on this. Otherwise, it remains within the realm of possibility that if there is a stockmarket meltdown, US bonds could remain afloat indefinitely as investors seek their safety.
It's quite possible that shorter-term notes like the 1-year, 2-year and perhaps 10-year may hold up relatively better. I'm guessing the longer-dated 20- or 30-year bonds may fall relatively more. By the way, others are taking note including the great folks at MrTopStep.com (tweeting at MrTopStep) as well as a very nice three-decade look at the price resistance by Tom McClellan at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/full-on_panic_into_t-bonds/. Since I've already hammered on the topic of waiting until $150 was met before shorting, I'll now start talking about what pullback levels to expect. First, a look at the daily chart of $USB shows that there's support initially about $147, then stronger support around $144 to look for (and isn't 144 such a nice Fibonacci number anyway!). Then around $136 is another retrace/support area; then of course $120 eventually. After price starts dropping under $150, we should start looking for around $144, then look at how it's shaping up. Here's the daily, then there are more charts below.
Below is the monthly chart. Once you start looking at it, you can see that $150 was presaged not only by a Fibonacci "butterfly" after the breakout and point-&-figure (P&F) charting, but also a long-term inverse head-&-shoulders and a symmetrical C=A type of wave structure. The latter gives a Fibonacci "shark attack" pattern pullback target at least to the same $144 level that the bearish butterfly targets. So we must first look for a trend reversal pattern (selling volumes and embarking on lower lows as it moves). This is critical because theoretically it could also go to a higher projection at $160 although that's much less likely. Then on a reversal, we should start to be able to see if it's going into a bigger-picture long-term trend reversal, and what targets come into focus.
Finally, below are daily and monthly P&F charts. Once $USB starts breaking support levels - $136 in particular, and eventually $120 after likely back-and-forth waves and over time - we can calculate more targets for downtrending prices. The trendlines on the P&F charts also suggest support areas. If those hold, then it remains possible to see $160 in $USB. If that happens, then it's still a bearish butterfly setup for a pullback if not a trend reversal.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Bond bubble alive & well - what to get ready for in US Treasuries
Got TLT? It's okay if you do because the US Treasury bonds bubble is alive and well! Recently it's launched a run toward new highs, probably squeezing a lot of shorts by now. I don't know if the JP Morgan situation is directly related but maybe indirectly. For a long time now, I've been pointing out that Fibonacci projections based on the monthly chart pattern point to at least $150 in both $USB (long bonds) and $UST (10-year notes). So I've discouraged my readers from shorting them. I'm glad I got it right! Wait until $150 is tagged in either or both $USB and $UST, and after that, make sure you see a discernible reversal pattern to be confident that the trend indeed reverses from bullish to bearish.
My own charts are below, but first look at today's free chart analysis by Tom McClellan, "Is JPM "The Burning LOH"? - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial" at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/is_jpm_the_burning_loh/. Tom McClellan had said a few weeks ago that US bonds would rally again. He was right on that, and now he's suggesting we may be getting near a peak. I don't think he has a specific price target, however. Read his article to understand what he's saying about his chart:
He points out that bonds often peak at crisis times. So it might not be just the Federal Reserve purchases and "Operation Twist". Yet it's interesting that the Fed currently plans to discontinue that level of purchases. Another reason why US bond prices could correct AFTER hitting peak price targets. (So after there's a trend reversal confirmed, KI$$ investors can sell TLT and buy TBT if that looks appropriate for their strategies.)
Can I guarantee the $150 Fibonacci and P&F price target? Of course not a guarantee - but the rally has strength. It's even possible the price may overshoot $150, so that's why investors and traders should look for a reversal pattern in any event.
The Fibonacci projection to $150 is also supported by point & figure projections, and by the indicators which continue to be supportive. As I mentioned, I'm glad to see Tom McClellan addressed this because it dovetails with the bullish projection I've been pointing out for weeks (even months). Here are my basic charts (from Stockcharts.com) for $USB the US long-term bonds. First the daily, then the monthly. Notice there's just a hint of negative divergence that will be important if it persists as $USB pikes new highs. But the monthly StochRSI did a bullish midline retest as price pulled back - that supports the likelihood that the US long-term Treasury bonds should continue to new highs and meet the $150 projection.
And finally here's the default point & figure chart for $USB from Stockcharts.com. Notice that it never did break support and still sports a bullish projection to $150:
My own charts are below, but first look at today's free chart analysis by Tom McClellan, "Is JPM "The Burning LOH"? - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial" at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/is_jpm_the_burning_loh/. Tom McClellan had said a few weeks ago that US bonds would rally again. He was right on that, and now he's suggesting we may be getting near a peak. I don't think he has a specific price target, however. Read his article to understand what he's saying about his chart:
He points out that bonds often peak at crisis times. So it might not be just the Federal Reserve purchases and "Operation Twist". Yet it's interesting that the Fed currently plans to discontinue that level of purchases. Another reason why US bond prices could correct AFTER hitting peak price targets. (So after there's a trend reversal confirmed, KI$$ investors can sell TLT and buy TBT if that looks appropriate for their strategies.)
Can I guarantee the $150 Fibonacci and P&F price target? Of course not a guarantee - but the rally has strength. It's even possible the price may overshoot $150, so that's why investors and traders should look for a reversal pattern in any event.
The Fibonacci projection to $150 is also supported by point & figure projections, and by the indicators which continue to be supportive. As I mentioned, I'm glad to see Tom McClellan addressed this because it dovetails with the bullish projection I've been pointing out for weeks (even months). Here are my basic charts (from Stockcharts.com) for $USB the US long-term bonds. First the daily, then the monthly. Notice there's just a hint of negative divergence that will be important if it persists as $USB pikes new highs. But the monthly StochRSI did a bullish midline retest as price pulled back - that supports the likelihood that the US long-term Treasury bonds should continue to new highs and meet the $150 projection.
And finally here's the default point & figure chart for $USB from Stockcharts.com. Notice that it never did break support and still sports a bullish projection to $150:
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Is this the week of a multi-year high? Randall Ashbourne's "Eye of Ra" report for 3/12/12 week
Is this upcoming week destined to be a multi-year high? That's what Randall Ashbourne is looking at this weekend, in his commentary and charts analysis at his website, http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/eyeofra.html
Maybe "RA" only is an acronym for Randall Ashbourne, although I suspect it's at least a pun and more. Apparently he's been targeting the upcoming week to be a significant time for a potential multi-year high, for quite some time. His article at the link above this weekend discusses the following chart, among others:
Mr. Ashbourne has also written an article with charts about the Jupiter cycle and how it affects Wall Street, which you can read at http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/articles.html. Like the forecasts of Raymond Merriman (whose public updates we feature), Mr. Ashbourne's article on the Jupiter cycle shows how the astrological cycle has a likelihood of peaking now; although in a couple of cases - like 1929 - it did go an extra round upward before the devastating crash. At the least, it's a warning not to be complacent.
I do enjoy looking at the Gann angles and Fibonacci work. It's interesting that the area of 1370 to 1375 represents $SPX Fibonacci extension levels measuring from the late-2011 volatility - but I can't guarantee that this area produces a major high, just a good potential for correction or consolidation retracing perhaps to 1300 or even 1260.
As for Elliott Wave - it's something Randall Ashbourne is clearly studying and trying to apply. But EW offers so many potential alternatives that I can't recommend it as a standalone basis to predict markets (that's why I primarily refer to Tony Caldaro for his Objective Elliott Wave, as I posted here earlier today).
Here's an interesting Fibonacci chart that Randall Ashbourne discussed in his update last weekend, at http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/march5.html:
And here's an interesting Gann angles chart that he included in his February 6, 2012 update of his "The Eye of Ra stock market report", at http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/february6.html:
What's it all signify? Well, it's true we're already looking for some interesting market moves this month; even though we tilt to the view that the market's in bull mode and heading higher into next year. But don't let that stop you from considering his work. And even he acknowledges that next week may be just a turn date rather than a multi-year high. If you're interested in Gann angles, astrology, Fibonacci and technical analysis blended with skepticism, a side of sarcasm and a chaser of whimsical humor - then Randall Ashbourne's site is one you might want to put on your list. Meantime, we're as curious as any to see whether the coming week turns out to be a momentous one for the stock markets!
Maybe "RA" only is an acronym for Randall Ashbourne, although I suspect it's at least a pun and more. Apparently he's been targeting the upcoming week to be a significant time for a potential multi-year high, for quite some time. His article at the link above this weekend discusses the following chart, among others:
Mr. Ashbourne has also written an article with charts about the Jupiter cycle and how it affects Wall Street, which you can read at http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/articles.html. Like the forecasts of Raymond Merriman (whose public updates we feature), Mr. Ashbourne's article on the Jupiter cycle shows how the astrological cycle has a likelihood of peaking now; although in a couple of cases - like 1929 - it did go an extra round upward before the devastating crash. At the least, it's a warning not to be complacent.
I do enjoy looking at the Gann angles and Fibonacci work. It's interesting that the area of 1370 to 1375 represents $SPX Fibonacci extension levels measuring from the late-2011 volatility - but I can't guarantee that this area produces a major high, just a good potential for correction or consolidation retracing perhaps to 1300 or even 1260.
As for Elliott Wave - it's something Randall Ashbourne is clearly studying and trying to apply. But EW offers so many potential alternatives that I can't recommend it as a standalone basis to predict markets (that's why I primarily refer to Tony Caldaro for his Objective Elliott Wave, as I posted here earlier today).
Here's an interesting Fibonacci chart that Randall Ashbourne discussed in his update last weekend, at http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/march5.html:
And here's an interesting Gann angles chart that he included in his February 6, 2012 update of his "The Eye of Ra stock market report", at http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/february6.html:
What's it all signify? Well, it's true we're already looking for some interesting market moves this month; even though we tilt to the view that the market's in bull mode and heading higher into next year. But don't let that stop you from considering his work. And even he acknowledges that next week may be just a turn date rather than a multi-year high. If you're interested in Gann angles, astrology, Fibonacci and technical analysis blended with skepticism, a side of sarcasm and a chaser of whimsical humor - then Randall Ashbourne's site is one you might want to put on your list. Meantime, we're as curious as any to see whether the coming week turns out to be a momentous one for the stock markets!
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Musings on Fed QE/POMO stimulus, Armstrong timing, & stock market effects
Folks, while reading up on Martin Armstrong's writings at http://armstrongeconomics.com/martin_armstrong_writings/ recently, I learned that mid-2011 was a turn date in his Economic Confidence Model. I'm not equipped to predict the market's future based on that alone. Nor would I say I'm really a believer in that - just interested to see what he's saying occasionally. But it reminded me of his timing based on the number 8.6 and its derivatives. I noticed that 17 months from the 2008/2009 market lows was the length of rise associated with the Fed's first Quantitative Easing (QE) - or, 8.6 times two. Later, QE 2 provided lift for about 8.6 months.
Operation Twist is a "POMO" discussed in this week's free chart analysis by Tom McClellan at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/. Given that 4.3 months (half of 8.6) from October 4, 2011 lands somewhere about now - mid-February - it'll be interesting to see how the market behaves from here. Well - I won't speculate too much on that right now. But at least, here's a quote from McClellan's article, which my readers should find interesting:
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Operation Twist is a "POMO" discussed in this week's free chart analysis by Tom McClellan at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/. Given that 4.3 months (half of 8.6) from October 4, 2011 lands somewhere about now - mid-February - it'll be interesting to see how the market behaves from here. Well - I won't speculate too much on that right now. But at least, here's a quote from McClellan's article, which my readers should find interesting:
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February 17, 2012
Fed Sloshing The Liquidity Pool
The Fed's Permanent Open Market Operations (POMOs) have a bigger effect on pushing stock prices up and down than most people would like to believe. The financial media like to convince us that what moves the market up and down are earnings news, employment reports, or concerns about Greek debt. But this week's charts reveal that the Fed's thumb on the scale has a big effect. The New York Federal Reserve Bank is the agency conducting these POMOs on behalf of the Federal Reserve, and the NY Fed kindly publishes a lot of data about them. They even give us a… more
Saturday, February 4, 2012
A more bullish 2012 forecast as Black Dragon Year unfolds
Happy "Black Dragon" New Year 2012 in Chinese Astrology!
A quick lesson about marking the Chinese new year start - the traditional Chinese astrology uses a solar-based timing and identifies today, February 4, 2012, as the start of the new year - see http://www.fortuneangel.com/ChineseAstrology2012.htm.
The lunar calculation, which is popularly used, placed the new year's start on January 23, 2012 - see http://www.fortuneangel.com/2012.htm.
As the solar start to Black Dragon Year has arrived, it's interesting that several events have occurred. The S&P 500 got into the 1340's and overbought - something I discussed in other recent posts. Warnings have sounded from the VIX falling wedge, and from the commitments of traders (COT) as described by Alex Roslin at his COTs Timer blog. Even the last "Occupy Wall Street" camp was closed, which could be a socionomic signal of a top, even if an interim one. And at the end of the past week, just before the solar Black Dragon Year started, with its strong water energy, we saw divergence across various markets (discussed in my prior recent posts here). It may not be a coincidence that crude oil - related to fire and, in a way, earth - already started weakening from the lunar start January 23.
Guess what - the McClellan COT-based forecast chart bears some resemblance to the combined solar-lunar/Bradley forecast for 2012 by and at Amalgamator (included in the sites list at the right side of the full site page here). That 2012 forecast calls for a crest anytime in coming trading days, then working down into late spring or early summer. Then a rise about July, some pullback, then upward into late this year.
It's also consistent with the "Three Peaks and a Domed House" scenario being tracked by Hirsch in their article at http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/New-Highs-But-3-Peaks-Top-Looms. The idea appears to be that we're hitting a crest or plateau from which we should expect correction or consolidation for awhile. Then another big move up to complete the final dome ... And then, down smartly. It's all enough to make one think that the bearish time will be in 2013. Maybe that's just fitting, 4 years after the March 2009 lows.
Some Chinese-calendar astrologers recommend investing in Chinese and Russian stock markets for those who want to "ride the dragon". That's mentioned in the article cited below, as well as this quote:
Remember - the good news is that human civilization has at least 60 or 70 million years to go, according to the Chinese astrological system - it certainly doesn't end in 2012! But the rise we get in the second half of the year isn't guaranteed to be massive - let's focus more on time than price. There's potential cautionary notes coming from financial astrology, including in the Chinese method. There's a prediction article by Raymond Lo (source cited below) which deserves careful attention because it provides much information for all aspects, including health and politics as well as the economy. Raymond Lo is a Professional Feng Shui Researcher & Practitioner; and we might consider that there may be many Chinese investors who will be influenced in their approach by these concepts. Here's a quote about markets, but do read the whole article:
Therefore, in addition to sector rotation which may favor agricultural commodities, textiles and clothing, we should remain alert that not all highs are higher highs. Like 2011, this year may prove to be one when timing is important.
Happy Black Dragon Year!
In China, there is no doomsday prediction for 2012 besides Hollywood movies. On the contrary, China has one prophecy regarding to 2012 from Ching 清 Dynasty. It said that a wise man will appear to make the world prosperous and peaceful in the year of Black Dragon. (Chinese language page Chinese Prophecy for 2012).
A quick lesson about marking the Chinese new year start - the traditional Chinese astrology uses a solar-based timing and identifies today, February 4, 2012, as the start of the new year - see http://www.fortuneangel.com/ChineseAstrology2012.htm.
The lunar calculation, which is popularly used, placed the new year's start on January 23, 2012 - see http://www.fortuneangel.com/2012.htm.
As the solar start to Black Dragon Year has arrived, it's interesting that several events have occurred. The S&P 500 got into the 1340's and overbought - something I discussed in other recent posts. Warnings have sounded from the VIX falling wedge, and from the commitments of traders (COT) as described by Alex Roslin at his COTs Timer blog. Even the last "Occupy Wall Street" camp was closed, which could be a socionomic signal of a top, even if an interim one. And at the end of the past week, just before the solar Black Dragon Year started, with its strong water energy, we saw divergence across various markets (discussed in my prior recent posts here). It may not be a coincidence that crude oil - related to fire and, in a way, earth - already started weakening from the lunar start January 23.
Here's the introduction to a forecast the McClellans are featuring this weekend as their Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart by McClellan Financial, 2/3/12 at http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/
Eurodollar COT Indication Calls For Big Stock Market Top NowFebruary 03, 2012
Back in May 2011, I introduced Chart In Focus readers to the leading indication that I get from looking at Commitment of Traders (COT) data on eurodollar futures. Since then (and also before) readers of our twice monthly McClellan Market Report newsletter and Daily Edition have appreciated getting to see this relationship on a more frequent basis. For almost a year, we have known that a top was due to arrive in February 2012. And sure enough, stock prices have been rising nicely in recent weeks as fulfillment of that expectation. Now this leading indication says that things are going to… more
Guess what - the McClellan COT-based forecast chart bears some resemblance to the combined solar-lunar/Bradley forecast for 2012 by and at Amalgamator (included in the sites list at the right side of the full site page here). That 2012 forecast calls for a crest anytime in coming trading days, then working down into late spring or early summer. Then a rise about July, some pullback, then upward into late this year.
It's also consistent with the "Three Peaks and a Domed House" scenario being tracked by Hirsch in their article at http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/New-Highs-But-3-Peaks-Top-Looms. The idea appears to be that we're hitting a crest or plateau from which we should expect correction or consolidation for awhile. Then another big move up to complete the final dome ... And then, down smartly. It's all enough to make one think that the bearish time will be in 2013. Maybe that's just fitting, 4 years after the March 2009 lows.
Some Chinese-calendar astrologers recommend investing in Chinese and Russian stock markets for those who want to "ride the dragon". That's mentioned in the article cited below, as well as this quote:
"The world economy will be unstable in the Year of the Dragon, because the economies in Europe and the U.S. are still suffering from the effects of the recession," Hong Kong Feng Shui master Anthony Cheng said.See the article "Chinese New Year 2012: Meaning and Predictions for the Year of the Dragon - International Business Times" at http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/285634/20120122/chinese-new-year-2012-predictions-dragon.htm.
Remember - the good news is that human civilization has at least 60 or 70 million years to go, according to the Chinese astrological system - it certainly doesn't end in 2012! But the rise we get in the second half of the year isn't guaranteed to be massive - let's focus more on time than price. There's potential cautionary notes coming from financial astrology, including in the Chinese method. There's a prediction article by Raymond Lo (source cited below) which deserves careful attention because it provides much information for all aspects, including health and politics as well as the economy. Raymond Lo is a Professional Feng Shui Researcher & Practitioner; and we might consider that there may be many Chinese investors who will be influenced in their approach by these concepts. Here's a quote about markets, but do read the whole article:
Regarding the economy, fire element is often the driving force behind the stock market. The five elements are also affecting peoples mood. In general fire is joy, water is fear, Earth is meditation, metal is sadness, and wood is anger. As such, fire year often generates optimism and drive up the stock market, such as 2006 and 2007.
But in 2008 the water arrived and obviously people began to have fear about worsening of the USA sub-prime problem and recession. In the year 2009 there [was] pure earth on earth. The earth element is stopping the water and it also symbolise meditation. So it means people will be conservative and play safe but gain more stability. In 2010. the Tiger carries the seed of fire element and so there had been substantial economic recovery with stronger optimism starting from the spring season. There is a short setback with the economic crisis in Greece and Portugal in late spring but with summer fire coming in May, the stock market recovered with strong momentum.
In 2011, the Rabbit [was] pure wood, it is not so strong in generating fire like the Tiger. So the economy was not as fast moving as the Tiger but there is also strong summer fire supported by wood in 2011, so the stock market continued to be vibrant and active in first half of 2011 until August when autumn arrived and no more fire support, there is serious setback in second half of 2011. With strong water coming in 2012, one have to be cautioned against more setback lasting into 2012.
2012 is year of water and earth, it is continual absence of fire element, so this could be a year that the economic activities and stock market will further slow down. The strong water this year is creating the mood of water, which is fear, people will be less optimistic. This will become more serious in the winter months of October, November. The economic crisis in certain European countries may be deepening and causing downturn in the global economy and stock market. Investors should enter a caution period especially in the second half of 2012.
See the whole article at http://www.raymond-lo.com/article_details.php?id=45.
Therefore, in addition to sector rotation which may favor agricultural commodities, textiles and clothing, we should remain alert that not all highs are higher highs. Like 2011, this year may prove to be one when timing is important.
Happy Black Dragon Year!
Friday, February 3, 2012
Not "all the same market" - is the divergence bearish?
Divergence has appeared between the stock markets which continued up, and the trio of the euro, crude oil, and gold/silver which have fallen back. There's an argument this is bearish, although these markets don't necessarily need to travel as "all the same market". Notice that oil's been dropping from its efforts to get over $101/103, and today the euro, gold and silver retreated. At minimum, it means the "risk on" assets aren't traveling at the same pace right now.
Below I'll show sentiment and technical indicators painting the picture that the overbought stock market, while not turning yet, is ripe for a reversal even if only temporary. First, I'd like to point readers to the work of MIG Bank posted at Safe Haven. I just saw it tonight whilst browsing with my iPhone, which I used to snap a quick pic of two of their charts (euro and dollar), hopefully making my readers want to go to "Daily Technical Report - MIG Bank" at http://static.safehaven.com/pdfs/mig_2012_02_01.pdf to see and keep up with their good work. They are tracking current bearish charts of euro, gold & silver in a manner very suitable for KI$$ swing traders. And here's that quick pic of their euro & dollar charts:
You may also want to look again at my recent posts about the dollar, oil, and gold; including U.S. Dollar and VIX testing support, even if temporary: charts view.
Next are charts of the SPX and Dow Industrials. The SPX pushed up past 1333 finally but unlike $INDU remains well under its 2011 highs - that divergence is bearish unless resolved upwardly:
Sentiment measured by the equity-only put-call ratio, $CPCE, is hot. It's in sell-signal territory, and with a somewhat higher low that can be a more meaningful signal. It's just one part of the puzzle, but does contribute:
Last here's the bullish percent for SPX, showing what percent of the SPX index stocks sport bullish P&F targets. At above 80% it's confirming overbought. But until it drops under 80%, and with the StochRSI still above the high line, it's only a condition, not an actual sell signal - yet. So we're closer than we've been to date and will remain vigilant:
Below I'll show sentiment and technical indicators painting the picture that the overbought stock market, while not turning yet, is ripe for a reversal even if only temporary. First, I'd like to point readers to the work of MIG Bank posted at Safe Haven. I just saw it tonight whilst browsing with my iPhone, which I used to snap a quick pic of two of their charts (euro and dollar), hopefully making my readers want to go to "Daily Technical Report - MIG Bank" at http://static.safehaven.com/pdfs/mig_2012_02_01.pdf to see and keep up with their good work. They are tracking current bearish charts of euro, gold & silver in a manner very suitable for KI$$ swing traders. And here's that quick pic of their euro & dollar charts:
You may also want to look again at my recent posts about the dollar, oil, and gold; including U.S. Dollar and VIX testing support, even if temporary: charts view.
Next are charts of the SPX and Dow Industrials. The SPX pushed up past 1333 finally but unlike $INDU remains well under its 2011 highs - that divergence is bearish unless resolved upwardly:
Sentiment measured by the equity-only put-call ratio, $CPCE, is hot. It's in sell-signal territory, and with a somewhat higher low that can be a more meaningful signal. It's just one part of the puzzle, but does contribute:
Last here's the bullish percent for SPX, showing what percent of the SPX index stocks sport bullish P&F targets. At above 80% it's confirming overbought. But until it drops under 80%, and with the StochRSI still above the high line, it's only a condition, not an actual sell signal - yet. So we're closer than we've been to date and will remain vigilant:
Saturday, January 28, 2012
McClellan stock market warnings as S&P 500 retests Fibonacci-doubling 1333
The S&P 500 index ($SPX) retested 1333 this week which is a Fibonacci doubling of the 666.79-ish low it touched in early March 2009. Meanwhile, early warning indicators are signaling to be on watch for a correction in the stock market. The upcoming week may not start a big reversal, but we could see movement that sets up a reversal that will have more effect the following week. The market can move either higher or in a choppy fashion. I've got an old Fibonacci target of $62 for the QQQ so I don't rule out that we'll see it, sooner or later. But both the Dow Industrials and the SPX are having trouble bettering their 2011 highs, and this divergence goes along the the warning that the outlook isn't as rosy as many think.
My annotated chart of the SPX shows the stochastics have curled down, and the 1333 test on Thursday also encompassed a test of 1327 which is a potentially significant Fibonacci price extension. Similarly, 1307 is the Fibonacci .78.6% retrace to SPX's 1370 high of last year, making 1307 a level to watch as well.
Here's the McClellan chart I've configured (at Stockcharts.com) with my markings. The McClellan Oscillator continues to struggle showing negative divergence, and the Summation Index (while high which is generally positive) is now in overbought territory:
And here's the Oscillator chart McClellan shows at their own website, at http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/:
Now, here's a quote from McClellan's January 27 "Traders Like QQQ A Little Too Much - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial", about the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the QQQ, getting ripe for a pullback:
My annotated chart of the SPX shows the stochastics have curled down, and the 1333 test on Thursday also encompassed a test of 1327 which is a potentially significant Fibonacci price extension. Similarly, 1307 is the Fibonacci .78.6% retrace to SPX's 1370 high of last year, making 1307 a level to watch as well.
Here's the McClellan chart I've configured (at Stockcharts.com) with my markings. The McClellan Oscillator continues to struggle showing negative divergence, and the Summation Index (while high which is generally positive) is now in overbought territory:
And here's the Oscillator chart McClellan shows at their own website, at http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/:
Now, here's a quote from McClellan's January 27 "Traders Like QQQ A Little Too Much - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial", about the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the QQQ, getting ripe for a pullback:
Some sentiment indicators work by analyzing what people say, such as polls and sentiment surveys. Others work by analyzing what people actually do, and I tend to like those more.
....
The current number of [QQQ] shares outstanding is not at an all time high, but it is the highest we have seen since all the way back in 2006. And it is way above the upper 50-1 Bollinger Band, indicating that traders and investors are getting a little bit too interested in being invested in the QQQ. That overly bullish sentiment condition begs for at least a short term pullback, to reintroduce people to the idea that stock prices actually CAN go down.
....
See their chart showing and comparing the QQQ price and number of QQQ shares created, and full article describing this, at: http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/traders_like_qqq_a_little_too_much/
Friday, January 27, 2012
Important week on watch for cycle crest: Raymond Merriman's 1/30/12 week comments
Signs are cropping up that the stock market could crest a significant top this week (which can mean a bullish, or choppy, week). These include work of others I tweeted in the past few days (Marty Chenard on the VIX, and Alex Roslin on COTs Timer blogspot), and today @AlmanacTrader writing about a potential Three Peaks and a Domed House. Let's get perspective from Raymond Merriman in his preview comments (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning January 30, 2012
Written by Raymond Merriman
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning January 30, 2012
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
We thought last week would be an interesting week, based on the Sun's T-square to the Jupiter-Saturn opposition (January 19-22), the new moon in Aquarius January 23, and Mars turning retrograde on January 24, and it was. Nearly every stock index we track made a new multi-month high, but not all did so at the same time.
On the prior Friday, January 20, the Zurich SMI Index soared to 6213, its highest level since July 8, 2011. On Monday, January 23, the Netherlands AEX raced up to 323.83, its highest level since August 2. On January 26, the London FTSE touched 5806, its highest point since August 1, And on Friday, January 27, the German DAX went to 6574, its highest level since August 4.
In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the pattern was not quite as dramatic. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong rallied to 20,590 on Friday, January b27, its highest mark since September 1, 2011. Friday was also the weekly high in the Australian All ordinaries, China's Shanghai, and India's Nifty indices. But those highs did not take out the highs prior to November 2011. Japan's Nikkei index made a new 2-month high on Wednesday, January 25 and Russia's MICEX index made a monthly high a day later. Some of these indices look poised to resume a decline next week.
In the Americas, the big story was the Dow Jones Industrial Average. After Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Fed announced that they would now keep the Fed funds interest rates near zero percent for three more years, the DJIA soared to 12,842 on Thursday, January 26, almost taking out last year's high of 12,876. The NASDAQ Composite soared to 2834, its highest level since July 26. The Bovespa of Brazil and Merval indices of Argentina also took off to their highest levels since June and October respectively.
As exciting and buoyant as the stock indices were, they paled in comparison to Gold and Silver. Gold tested 1740 on Friday, which is up nearly $220 per ounce since our special "buy alert" and "buy recommendation" of December 28-29, within the half-hour of the actual low. But Silver is now testing 3400, up nearly 800 points from that same low when the buy signal was given. At $5000 per every one dollar (100 points) per contract, that represents a gain of nearly $40,000/contract between the low of December 29 and the high of Friday, January 27. Our position trader subscribers on both our daily and weekly reports are still long, and will be for awhile, for as mentioned in that report, I believe this is just the start of the new 3-year cycle. The first phase of every cycle is bullish, per the rules outlined in all of our cycle books.
Short-Term Geocosmics
Mars is retrograde now (January 24-April 14), so matters could get tricky here. This is an indicator of sudden changes in policies, such as we witnessed last week when the Fed thought it prudent to announce that it would maintain a zero-interest policy for three years instead of just another 1-1/2 years as announced previously. Keep in mind that this announcement was made right near the time Mars turned retrograde. Retrograde Mars indicates a reversal of actions initiated at the time. It sounded nice and was a welcomed cause for markets to explode upwards, but I don't think this announcement will be carried through. That's the value of astrology. The announcement was made under a retrograde Mars, when actions taken have to be reversed, and also when the Moon was in Pisces, which indicates it may be more of a case of wishful thinking than sincere commitment. Bernanke may not even be around by then to see it through.
There is not a lot of geocosmic activity going on this week. Perhaps the most noteworthy signature is Venus in opposition to this retrograde Mars on February 1. Venus is in Pisces, where it truly loves agreement and peace. It doesn't like a hassle or a confrontation. But Mars retrograde in Virgo probably sees this weakness of Venus in Pisces, and decides to badger it. This annoyance is irritating to many who want all parties to get along with each other instead of launching these silly barbs. You can probably see the first run of this show in the Republican primaries in Florida, and probably during President Obama's campaign swing this week too. My guess is that those who hurl such unnecessary insults will lose support. Candidates need to be serious and stay with the issues, or the American public turns off on them.
But speaking of all that, we note that on February 3 Neptune will begin its 14-year trek through Pisces, the sign it rules. That would seem to favor Pisces people, like Mitt Romney. Too bad he can't campaign for 14 years. But it favors Obama too (who has been campaigning for what seems like 14 years), because Neptune will form a trine to his natal Venus (his popularity is coming back). It should be an interesting race to the White House this year, as both Romney and Obama have the heavens on their side. Friday is also important because it is the release of the important monthly payroll and unemployment reports. The following week, however, is the one that stands out due to geocosmic activity related to reversals.
And of course we should never take our eye off the fact that Jupiter ends its transit of 23 degrees Aries through 7 degrees of Taurus on March 7, 2012. Historically, long-term cycles in the USA stock market top out by then. For more on this, please read "Forecast 2012," or join our webcast on February 19 where this matter will be discussed in great detail.
Longer-Term Thoughts, and "Answer Me That!"
"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." - Cicero - 55 BC (via Mark Lusher to me).
Some things never change. But with Uranus approaching its 3-year waxing square to Pluto, and soon to make a grand square to the USA Sun-Saturn square, changes will take place. The momentum for those changes is already in force, and the source of those changes is simple: economics. With Uranus in Aries, people want freedom, but that freedom is largely for economic opportunity. And that economic freedom for individuals can only come from the presence of a healthy and honest private sector, not an overly expansive and overly regulating public sector.
Listening to President Obama's State of the Union address last week, I was impressed with two things. First, he is still an eloquent speaker who knows exactly what is on the public's mind. Second, he seems to have become disconnected from their reality and is unable or unwilling to take action in the direction of his analysis of the problems. In fact, his actions are in almost complete opposition to his correct analysis of the problems, time and time again (i.e. his comments about "too much regulation," yet he is the leader of this "Era of Regulations," or, "every one should pay their fair share of taxes," yet 47% of population pay no income tax. A "fair share" would be a flat tax, which would be very unpopular for his support base).
One statement in particular that highlights this awareness occurred when he stated that many people think the USA is in a state of decline, and "… those people don't know what they are talking about." Really? Does he not look at the rate of acceleration of the government's debt? Is he not aware that the debt ceiling is about to be increased $1.2 trillion to $16.4 trillion within days, which – according to Rick Santelli on CNBC – represents a debt of $52,409 for every single person living in the USA? That's an increase of over 60% just since the end of 2008! Does he not realize that the USA credit worthiness was downgraded for the first time in its history and it is on watch to be downgraded again soon if nothing changes? Does this support the idea that the country is NOT in decline? This is the "debt explosion" symbolized by Uranus (explosion) in square aspect to Pluto (debt and threat). The fuse is lit and it is exploding on his watch.
But more to the point about the disconnect. It is not just between Obama and the American people, but between the government and the people who elected them to serve. Let me share two examples of this disconnection from my recent trip to Zurich and Amsterdam.
At my workshop on Financial Market Timing on Saturday, January 7, in Zurich, I had the privilege of sitting at lunch with three very fine people. One was a Swiss banker. He was there with one of his special clients - one my subscribers, who is a very successful businesswoman with residences in both Switzerland and Vero Beach, Florida. At a certain point, I asked this young banker if he comes often to the United States. "Not anymore. We can't. Our banks will not let us travel to the USA."
"Why not?" I asked, for this seemed like a very strange policy for a bank.
"Your country now detains all Swiss bankers who enter the USA. They are asked to give up the names of their American clients so they can be checked to see if they are avoiding payment of taxes in the USA. If we do that, we lose our clients and the bank fires us. If we don't, your government detains us for several weeks, months, even years. Therefore none of us, as Swiss bankers, can travel to the USA at this time." You see, it is a violation of Swiss banking laws of confidentiality to reveal their clients to anyone. At the same time, the USA now has a policy where banks from other nations cannot conduct business in the USA unless they reveal the identities of all of their USA clients. As a comparison, imagine that you are a doctor, lawyer, astrologer, or psychologist, and someone from law enforcement asks you to reveal confidential information about one of your clients, under threat of detainment or even incarceration. What do you do? What does your employer do if he/she knows you will be put into such a compromising situation?
Two weeks later, after the mini-symposium on "Forecast 2012" in Amsterdam on Saturday, January 21, I had another experience that would surprise many USA citizens, and again demonstrates the disconnect that has subtly evolved between the government and the people it serves. After the very successful mini-Congress, the organizer - Irma Schogt of Schogt Market Timing – invited two other symposia participants and myself to dinner at a well-known French restaurant. We split a fine bottle of wine. We had dessert, and then left to take me back to my apartment. As we drove along the main thoroughfare, the traffic was diverted to the right of the road. We were in a queue. Irma, the driver, said this diversion was for drivers to be given a breath-alyzer test for alcohol. This is what they do at this hour on Saturday night in Amsterdam. It is an "agreement" between the people and the police. No one wants people driving who are drunk and may be a threat to the safety of others. After a few minutes, it was time for Irma to take the breath-alyzer. I was nervous, because I know what happens in the USA if you are pulled over and found to have a blood alcohol limit that is "too high." But Irma passed the test just fine.
"What would have happened if you had failed, Irma?" I asked.
"They would have pulled me over and asked me to step out of the car and go eat or walk, or do something, and then come back and take it again until I was under the limit for safety."
I am thinking. "This isn't real." But it was and it is. In Amsterdam, the focus is on prevention of problems via cooperation between the people and its government to provide safety for its people. It is a quite different relationship here in the USA.
Why and how have we become so disconnected from our government, or vice-versa? Why is it that the rest of the world is living our dream, the dream of our founding fathers for a cooperation between the government and the people who elect it to serve? Are we losing touch with this aspect of our national character? Is it true that we are not in a state of decline from these founding principles, as President Obama stated? Can we ever get it back? Answer me that!
Announcements
The "Forecast 2012" webcast will take place on Sunday, February 19, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that's 6:00 PM GMT or 10:00 AM PST). Via the modern technology of our webinar host, you can log onto this presentation on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2012, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You can hear the speech and see the live presentation and slide show, complete with the charts as they are being discussed, on your computer screen. The cost for this special event is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, just register at the MMA Website (www.mmacycles.com) and scroll down the opening screen for the announcement. Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before February 17), for space will be limited.
If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.
Copies of the printed version of Forecast 2012 are still available. There will be no additional printings, so when they are gone, they are gone. This year's book is 200 pages – our largest ever – and packed full of information about the economy, USA Presidential election, social and economic trends, and of course, financial markets with their all-important three-star critical reversal dates (the one and two-star reversal dates are covered in the MMA Cycles Report, as well as weekly reports). The annual Forecasts Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. For further information, please go to the front page of our web site at www.mmacycles.com, O call us at 1-248-626-3034.
The E-Book version of the Forecast 2012 Book is now out as well in two different formats. The first is our own version, which contains both the text and the calendar-ephemeris for 2012. The cost for this is $55.00, or $35.00, depending on whether you also ordered the printed version too. The second is through Apple iTunes, which covers iPhone 4 and 4S, and the iPad, and also Amazon.com Kindle. The cost is $39.99. It does not contain the advertisements or the planetary calendar and ephemeris in the back. You can now order it if you have an email address registered via one of these 9 countries (USA, UK, Australia, France, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). Just go to iTunes, and then "Library," then "Store," then in the field titled "Search," type in "Forecast 2012" or "Raymond Merriman" (without quotation marks). Or, go to http://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/raymond-merriman/id408289861?mt=11.
The printed version of Forecast 2012 has also been translated into several different languages (including English) this year, and many of these publications are now out or will be this coming week.
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
Italian: at www.astrofinanza.com, and http://www.astrofinanza.com/mma/shop.html
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/
Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com.
Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2012, as will our Chinese distributor at http://www.zzdcycles.com. "After reading the annual Forecasts and subscribing to MMA Cycles for the past ten years, I can say that Ray Merriman's forecasts are uncannily accurate and indispensable for the preservation of wealth. Nothing else I've seen compares. It is without a doubt the best perspective on the big picture, not just bits and pieces of the picture."
W.W., Investor and Teacher, Indiana.
I am about to begin the update to "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles." I expect it to be ready mid-year. We are going to offer a pub-publication special price for those who order it before May 1. The retail price of this expanded and update book will be $125, but the prepublication special will be $75.00 (plus postage). For more information, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down the front page. You will see it.
"The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis" is now out as well! The comments and reviews are starting to come in, and we will post them here over the next few weeks. "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing series is truly a life's work of grand proportion. Raymond Merriman has built the foundation upon which Financial Astrology can securely rest. Volumes 1-4 were more than a foundation, they were an edifice, and Volume 5: Technical Analysis and Price Objectives, is the pinnacle. Coupled with the timing strategies of the first 4 volumes, these volumes provide a complete trading methodology, brilliantly and logically presented, that any person who makes the time and the effort to understand, may trade profitably."- Duke O'Neil, President, Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado.
The retail price of this new book is $144.00. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering all five volumes, or choice of any four now at http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. If ordering all five volumes, you will save $99.00! For more information on this book, go to YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnplAS5m2AI, describing this new book. It is "the missing link." You may want to check this video out, as it contains some interesting long-term tips.
Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.
Events:
February 19, 2012: "Forecast 2012 Worldwide Webcast!!!" This is our annual speech to viewers the world over. It will be the latest update on Raymond Merriman's annual Forecast Book. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this speech will focus on the current state of the economy, political situation in Washington, DC, and in particular, the financial markets, including: the U.S. stock market, interest rates, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, and Silver. This will be a telecast of the live presentation taking place at the Michigan Education Conference Center in Troy, Michigan on Square Lake Road. The webcast and speech will start at 1:00 PM, EST and last two hours. Cost to participate in the webcast, or to attend in person in Troy, is $45.00. Go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/forecast-2012-live-webcast-february-19,-2012!!!/ for more information.
March 1 and 3, 2012: Hong Kong. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1, and a full day intensive on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at 852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at earlthorn@hknet.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3.
March 9-11, 2012: The 12th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a pre-seminar workshop with Raymond Merriman. For further information on this fantastic gathering, contact www.keplerunited.org. +381-11-267-31-92 or email info@keplerunited.org.
April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop.
May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.
August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, in Ann Arbor, MI, Holiday Inn. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology, Thursday, August 2, with Raymond Merriman. More details soon.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
Archives
Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com
For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:
- Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
- Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
- German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
- Japanese : www.merriman.jp
- Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
- Russian : www.urania.ru
- Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
- Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)
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