Andre Gratian's 8/26/12 Turning Points report

Update Note: Andre Gratian's full Market turning Points report is posted at http://www.safehaven.com/article/26665/market-turning-points, complete with his charts.

Prior post here, follows:
Folks - I'm only able to post the text of Andre Gratian's Market Turning Points newsletter, at this present moment (due to my own technical challenges). I will endeavor to add his graphical charts by or during tomorrow, Monday, August 27. By then, it should also be posted in full at Safehaven.com. In the meantime, I know that my regular readers will find his text extremely informative:
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August 26, 2012Market Turning Points

By Andre Gratian

Precision timing for all time frames through a multi-dimensional approach to technical

analysis: Cycles - Breadth - P&F and Fibonacci price projections

and occasional Elliott Wave analysis

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law … The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Current position of the market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – SPX is in a limited intermediate uptrend which may have ended in August. We need confirmation.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know atajg@cybertrails.com

Market Overview

My analysis of the SPX had suggested that the intermediate trend which started on June 4th would end sometime in August, if not at 1404, then at 1425. After reaching 1407 on 8/07, the SPX went into a sideways consolidation which lasted several days, and then moved up to 1426 on 8/21. Meeting that second target brought about a 28-point correction -- the largest in three weeks. The DJIA was a little weaker, giving back 300 points before finding its footing – the equivalent of 32 SPX points at today's ratio. QQQ, largely influenced by the sharp rise in Apple, fared the best, only retracing about a point.

Will 1426 remain the high point of the move and initiate a short-term decline which could eventually turn into one of intermediate status? That is a question that will have to wait another week for an answer. The market is waiting to see what transpires at the Jackson Hole symposium which is scheduled for the coming week-end. Bernanke will be speaking on Friday, and ECB president Draghi on Saturday. Either one of these speeches could trigger the next short-term move in the market and determine if 1426 remains the top tick. If traders like what they hear, they could extend the SPX rally to its next potential projection of about 1445. They could also start a decline if they do not get exactly what they had hoped for!

Another trigger of much lesser importance was Friday's jury decision to award Apple $1.05 billion in its patents dispute with Samsung – which will be appealed! Will Apple sell on the news? If so, it could affect QQQ and bring it more in line with the other indices. The health of the SPX will also depend on how the financial sector performs from this point on. Short-term, that sector is relatively stronger than SPX, but intermediate and long-term weaker.

We wait for another week before updating the forecast!

Chart analysis

With the help of (red) trend lines, I have traced out what I believe to be the intermediate channel in which the SPX has been rising since October 2011. It consists of two outside channel lines and an internal line which acts as a median for prices and which has consistently provided resistance for the rally starting at 1267. For the trend to continue upward, prices would have to jump decisively above that median and not fall back. Last week, the index surpassed its early April top by a small margin but could go no further and retraced immediately.

The McClellan oscillator which is posted under the Daily SPX Chart (above) shows that some weakness followed the negative divergence displayed earlier, but not enough to give a decisive sell signal. The momentum indicator at the bottom of the chart tells the same story: deceleration, negative divergence, but no sell yet. To give a sell signal, the indicator would have to fall below the dashed line and penetrate the green uptrend line. That would correspond with the indexbreaking a support level around 1390/95 which you will see better on the hourly chart. Until that happens, we have to consider the possibility that SPX could be consolidatingbefore making a higher high.

On the Hourly Chart, I have chosen to put the spotlight on the wedge formation which makes up the last phase of the rally from 1267. Prices rose to the median of the larger channel and tried to break through, but couldn't and fell back. We know that wedges are patterns which are caused by strong demand at the beginning coming more and more into equilibrium with supply as the sellers begin to match the buyers and finally overwhelm them, causing the lower trend line to be broken and, most likely, starting a decline which often reaches the point from which the pattern started -- in this case, 1329. If the news resulting from this week-end's symposium are disappointing, this is most likely what will happen. But that is only one possible scenario, and it will have to be confirmed by market action, with the SPX closing decisively below the red horizontal line. On the other hand, positive news may send prices higher, at least temporarily.

We wait for another week!

Cycles

These are some of the important cycles which have toppedand could pressure the market in the next few weeks and months: the 4-yr cycle, the 66-wk cycle, and the 29-30-wk cycle whose low is due in mid-October. There is also an 8-9-wk cycle due in early September, plus a minor cycle due next week and one the following week.

The 66-wk cycle could suppress prices until early January, and then generate the final phase of the bull market into early 2013.

Breadth

Let's look at the NYSI (Summation Index, courtesy of StockCharts.com) to see what breadth is doing on an intermediate basis.

The index made an initial peak in mid-July and a second peak last week. The second peak is about at the level of the first one, while SPX exceeded its July peak by almost 50 points. That is not bullish behavior and is most likely an indication that the longer-term cycles mentioned above are beginning to pressure the rally.

In addition, the RSI -- and especially the MACD – were noticeably lower on the second peak. So we have a situation where the NYSI indices showed negative divergence to NYSI, while NYSI was showing significant negative divergence to the SPX. Hmmm! Not bullish at all!

Sentiment Indicators

The
XIV (inverted volatility index)

Below, I show XIV vs. SPX on an hourly basis (charts courtesy of Qcharts). These charts really point out the value of the XIV as a leading indicator, when contrasted with the SPX. On 8/13, it made a new high in advance of the SPX, but on 8/21, it merely made a double-top while SPX made a new high. This was a warning that prices were about to decline, and they did, 300 Dow points worth!

Since Friday, the two indices have gotten back in sync on an hour-by-hour basis. The XIV is much closer to its uptrend line than is the SPX. I don't know if that is an indication that a more significant reversal is coming when XIV breaks its uptrend line ahead of SPX, but it could be.

XLF (Financial SPDR)

By contrast to the XIV, XLF is not quite as weak as SPX, as can be seen from the fact that it had a slightly stronger move than the latter at the top and has not retraced as much. Perhaps this will sort

Itself out in the next few sessions. Time segments which lack clarity normally come into focus sooner rather than later, and a little patience is all that is required.

As with SPX, XLF will give its first sign of weakness when it drops below the red horizontal line.

BONDS

After making an all-time high of 125 in Oct. 2011, TLT had a six-month correction, retracing only about .382 of its previous uptrend. It then went on to make another all-time high of 132 in the later part of July. Since that time, it has undergone another correction, finding support just above an intermediate trend line at a level which corresponds to its 200-DMA. In doing so, it also filled a near-term P&F projection to 121-122.

During SPX's retracement from 1426, TLT rallied .382 of its latest decline and appears to want to extend its base before moving higher. It has corrected to an important support area which may keep it from going lower before it resumes its uptrend to an unfilled projection of 137. Since it tends to run contrary to the SPX, it's near-term action will be dictated (to some extent) by whether or not the equity market has made an intermediate-term top.

UUP (Dollar ETF) Daily Chart.

Over the past week, UUP extended its decline to a .618 retracement of its rally from early May, and copuld also have met a near-term P&F projection of 22.30. In spite of the correction it remains in the intermediate uptrend which started in August 2011. While it may have found meaningful support, the fact that its indicator made a new low in conjunction with the price suggests that it may have to do some additional consolidation before getting back in an uptrend.

It is also not invulnerable to going lower. It moves in an opposite direction to the euro, and if the latter responds favorably to news from the ECB, we could see UUP challenge its intermediate trend line.

GLD (ETF for gold)

After a long consolidation above 149, GLD has finally managed to accomplish something positive. It has risen above the 200-DMA which had been an obstacle to further progress for about 10 weeks, and also rose above 159 -- a former short-term peak. That's bullish for the near-term, but the real test will be whether or not the move can be extendedand turn into a resumption of the long-term uptrend.

There are some obstacles lying ahead that may prevent this from being a valid break-out. The most obvious one is that the rise of the last few days has brought the index squarely upagainst its intermediate-term downtrend. That level is also thejunction of a parallel to the lower trend line (the top of a rising channel), and the resistance created by the top of the "e" wave of the mid-course triangle consolidation of its decline from 174.

Another obstacle concerns the longer-term trend of the US dollar. It must be acknowledged that there is an inverse relationship between the move of gold and that of the dollar. I have analyzed the dollar above, and concluded that it is still in an intermediate uptrend, but that it could be vulnerable to challenging the lower trend line of that uptrend if the euro has a sudden spike upward as a result of president Draghi'sspeech on Saturday. Should that be the case, it would benefit gold and GLD would have no problem overcoming the 162 resistance level.

We must now consider the possibility that GLD has made a double-bottom at 149 in early June, and that it has now built what looks like a substantial base. This has created a potential P&F count as high as 190 (emphasis on "potential"). But such a move would pre-suppose a major advance in the euro and a major decline in the dollar – something which doesnot appear to be in the cards at this time.

GLD does have a standing long-term count to about 200, and perhaps even to 233. The more likely scenario is that the index is currently building a base that will eventually support such a move. Even if there is more upside over the short-term – perhaps to 164-166 -- this is not likely to be the "big move" just yet.

OIL (USO)

USO has reached its P&F projection to 36, as well as the overhead resistance discussed earlier, with negative divergence showing in the indicator. It may have started to back off but has not yet given a sell signal.

Let's give it a little time to decide if it wants to honor myprediction.

Summary

SPX has already proven the validity of my 1425 target as a potential top for the move which started at 1267. After reaching it, there was an immediate retracement of 28 points.

It remains to be seen if that level will qualify as an intermediate top. If a higher high has not been made by early next week, the odds are that 1426 will not be exceeded.

Andre

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Choppiness & pullback still consistent with bull market: Tony Caldaro's 7/21/12 OEW update

If the markets seem off-kilter to you, Tony Caldaro has some great explanations of where they're headed and why (thanks again Tony!) Tony discusses U.S. & global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, crude oil and other commodities, precious metals, and many individual stocks in his publics charts list. Use his charts link at the bottom to view all of his public charts. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
July 21, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

Another interesting week. The market started the week by heading lower into early tuesday. Then rallied to new uptrend highs on thursday before pulling back on friday's Opex. Spain's IBEX dropped 5.6% on friday, assisting the SPX pullback, as their 10YR yields pushed over 7% again. Nevertheless, for the week the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Foreign markets were mixed with Asia +0.8%, Europe -1.3%, and the DJ World index +0.5%. Economic reports for the week were split with 7 improving and 7 declining. On the uptick: NY FED, CPI, housing starts, NAHB, industrial production, and the WLEI plus Philly FED improved. On the downtick: retail sales, business inventories, capacity utilization, building permits, weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, and leading indicators. Next week we get reports on housing, durable goods, and Q2 GDP.

LONG TERM: bull market

It has been said, it is easy to be bullish when markets are rising and then to turn bearish when they start to decline. Yet with nearly 85% of the international markets we track in bear markets, and only the US, and possibly England and Switzerland, in long term uptrend ends. How does one easily determine which are rising and which have started declines?

While some of the major US indices, in recent months, have offered mixed signals in their wave patterns. The bellwether DOW continues to track this bull market with clarity and precise waves. Our long term count, from the March 2009 bear market low, remains the same. A multi-year Cycle wave [1] began at that low which should divide into five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed at SPX 1371 and 1075 in 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since then. Within each Primary wave there are five Major waves. Notice how Major wave 1 of Primary I subdivided into five Intermediate waves, and Major 1 of Primary III has done likewise. Major wave 3 should now be underway from the SPX 1267 Major wave 2 low. We are anticipating Major 3 will be a multi-month uptrend which may last until year end, and carry the SPX up to the OEW 1499 pivot.

MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend

For the past several weeks we have been vacillating back and forth between new bull markets highs ahead or a retest of the SPX 1267 low. We have been observing a choppy type of uptrend from that low, and knew the 2-year Tech cycle low was due soon. This week, tuesday, the SOX index appeared to put in that low.

When one compares the SOX index with the SPX it is easily seen that one does not get very far without the other. When the SOX is rising the SPX rises with it. Yet, when the SOX stalls or heads lower, the SPX goes sideways or declines as well. Notice the action in the SOX/SPX since their coincident June lows. They both started off uptrending, but the SPX became quite choppy when the SOX stalled and started downtrending. So which index is leading the other. The answer to that question depends on the 2-year cycle.

When the 2-year cycle bottoms the SOX takes over leadership, driving specifically the Tech stocks higher and general market, until the upward surge off that low ends. This can take anywhere from 6 – 12 months. Then the general market takes over leadership. Compare the two indices after each 2-year cycle low on their weekly charts from 2002.

After the SOX index bottoms it usually surges about 8+% in a few days. Then it pulls back losing about half of that gain before resuming the new uptrend. Tuesday to thursday's surge was +8.3%, and friday it began its pullback. It's acting like the typical kickoff after a 2-year cycle low.

This would help explain the overall choppiness in the general market during this uptrend. The Tech cycle was bottoming while the Cyclicals were trying to rise. Should the Sox index, semiconductors, start rising as expected the SPX uptrend should start to appear more impulsive. If not, and there is another low ahead. We would then expect the SPX to retest just the late June low at 1309, before resuming the uptrend.

We recently completed a 50 year study on our WROC buy signal. Thank you Alan for the data. These signals usually occur prior to an OEW uptrend confirmation. The latest one occurred in June. Over the entire period 1962-2012 they were accurate nearly 90% of the time. During a bull market their accuracy rises to 96%. We also found, during bull markets WROC buys signals only occurred 11% of the time during B wave uptrends. So the chance of this uptrend being a B wave, of an ongoing Major wave 2 correction, is only 11%.

SHORT TERM

Medium term support for the SPX is now at the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term support is at the 1363 pivot, SPX 1342/47 and 1333/38. Short term resistance is at the OEW 1372 and 1386 pivots, plus SPX 1402/03. Short term momentum ended the week quite oversold.

During the week we upgraded our projections, for this uptrend, based upon the activity in the SOX index. After reviewing the charts this weekend we have also upgraded our labeling on the SPX chart, from Minor and Minute waves 1 and 2, to Intermediate and Minor waves 1 and 2. The rally was SPX 1267-1363 was sufficient for an Intermediate wave i advance, and Intermediate wave iii should now be underway from SPX 1309. Minor wave 1 can be counted from SPX 1309-1375, with Minor 2 at 1325. Minor wave 3, of Int. iii, should be currently underway. The other count we are tracking, if the SOX 2-year low is not in place yet, is posted on the DOW charts.

Should the uptrend resume after this pullback, as expected, we can now project a Minor wave 3 target near SPX 1432 (Minor 3 = 1.62 Minor 1). This nears the range of the OEW 1440 pivot. Then an Intermediate wave iii target near SPX 1464 (Int. iii = 1.62 Int. i). Then an uptrend high for Major wave 3 near SPX 1507 (Int iii-v = 2.0 Int. i). This nears the range of the OEW 1499 pivot. This all depends on how the SOX index responds to its recent low. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets gained 0.8% on the week. All indices, but China, are in uptrends.

The European markets lost 1.3% on the week. Mostly due to declines in Spain and Italy on friday. All indices still uptrending, with the two noted as a possible exception.

The Commodity equity group gained 0.7% on the week. All but Brazil are in uptrends.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 0.5% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain quite resilient despite the uptrend in stocks and commodities. Still uptrending and gained 0.2% on the week.

Crude continues to uptrend and gained 5.7% on the week.

Gold remains in a choppy uptrend, which has not made a higher high since June, and lost 0.3% on the week.

The USD is still uptrending gaining 0.2% on the week. While the EUR keeps downtrending, losing 0.7% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday kicks off the economic week with the FHFA housing price index. On wednesday we'll get New homes sales. Then on thursday weekly Jobless claims, Durable goods orders and Pending home sales. On friday, Q2 GDP (estimates +1.5%) and Consumer sentiment. FED governor Raskin gives a speech monday night, and FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech tuesday morning. The next FOMC meeting is tuesday/wednesday July 31 and August 1st. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Mercury retrograde & markets perplexing investors: Raymond Merriman's 7/23/12 week comments

If you wonder about why the markets can seem very perverse sometimes; such as the VIX being very low while Treasury notes and grains are pushing new highs - be open to answers from financial astrology! We are pleased to start our weekend with Raymond Merriman's unique insights and preview comments (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 23, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

If you are an equities trader, then the past few days have not been "shock and awe." This was our message two weeks ago pertaining to the transit of Mars entering into a T-square with Uranus and Pluto (July 17-18), shortly after both Mercury and Uranus turned retrograde (July 13-14). This was to be the "shock." During this same time and afterwards, Mars would trine Jupiter (also on July 18) and Jupiter would form a favorable sextile to Uranus (July 21). This was to be the "awe." But in equity markets world wide as well as precious metals, it was mostly just prices trading back and forth within a rather narrow range. It wasn't very much shock and it was just a little bit of awe, as some equity markets did rise very briefly to a new monthly high before settling back at the end of last week.

However, there was considerably more action on other markets. Take grains for example. The record hot temperatures in the USA grain belt, accompanied by a lack of moisture, propelled both Corn and Soybeans to new all- time highs during these past 7 days. The nearby Soybean contract rallied to 17.77/bushel on Friday and Corn to $8.28. Food costs are going to rise sharply. But that wasn't the only record broken last week. Mortgage rates fell to an all-time low as the September contract on the Ten Year Treasury Notes soared to new highs, but the 30-year Treasury Bonds fell just shy of their contract high, in what could become a case of intermarket bearish divergence if either close in the lower half of a day's range before negating this set up. As grains and Treasuries made new highs, the Euro currency dropped to its lowest level in over 2 years on the news that Spain's banks are once again entering dire straits. So if you were looking for "shock and awe" and you weren't limiting yourself to just equities and precious metals, it was certainly there.

Equity markets around the world were up and down a lot last week (typical of Mercury retrograde) and are now posing some interesting possibilities related to the powerful geocosmic signatures that were present. Take Europe for example. On Friday, July 20, the AEX of Netherlands, DAX of Germany, and SMI of Zurich all soared to their highest levels since those lows of June 1-5. Bothe the AEX and DAX are up nearly 15% from those lows just 6-7 weeks ago. The SMI is up nearly 11%. But the London FTSE and Russian MICEX could not take out their highs of July 5, for a case of intermarket bearish divergence. The FTSE, by comparison, is up less than 10% since its low of June 1. England is apparently in worse shape than these other Euro markets. Russia's MICEX, on the other hand, was still up over 16% last week from its lows of May 24.

The situation is similar in the United States. The Dow Jones soared slight above its monthly high of 12,961 on July 5 when it attained 12,977 intraday on Thursday, July 19. But the NASDAQ Composite fell short, reaching only 2976 on July 19, slightly below its 2987 high of July 5 for a case of intermarket bearish divergence here. Both markets then sold off rather sharply on Friday to validate this signal. In South America, the Argentine Merval Index soared to 2577 on July 19, its highest level since its low of May 16. The Bovespa of Brazil, however, is well below its high of July 5 and in fact closer to its 52,271 low of June 28, for yet another case of intermarket bearish divergence, in the same region, and within close proximity of a geocosmic critical reversal zone.

Asia and the Pacific Rim were by far the most bizarre of all regions related to equity markets. The Australian All Ordinaries index surged to a new monthly high on Friday at 4245, but that represents a gain of only 5.5% from its primary bottom at 4033 on June 4. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong only got up to 19,656, well below its high of 19,835 back on July 4. But the Japanese Nikkei, India NIFTY and China's Shanghai Index all fell for most of last week, with Shanghai Composite re-testing its lows of January 6. Yet it is exhibiting a bullish oscillator divergence pattern, while the other indices are exhibiting bearish intermarket divergence patterns. Maybe it is time to buy China and sell the other indices of this region, as well as other regions. Most of those indices making highs throughout the world last week did so under falling oscillator levels.

Best Trades of the Past Week

Over the past few weekly columns, I have been inserting trading recommendations made to our subscribers in the prior week. Readers seem to like this type of information to just see how accurate these reports, based on our unique timing methods, have been in many cases.

Our best trades last week were in the stock indices. The daily report for July 18, stated for E-Mini September S&P futures, for example, "Position traders are long with a stop-loss now on a close below 1339. Let's look to exit and stand aside at 1368-1372 if offered." Aggressive traders were also long with the same stop-loss as position traders for now and advised, "But let's exit at 1368-1372 and go short there with a stop-loss on a close above 1380." Both positions had been long from 1340-142 the prior week. On July 18, the E-mini S&P rose to 1370.50. The next day it went a little higher, to 1376, and then reversed. By Friday it was under 1360. We didn't go short for position traders because Mercury is retrograde and we don't usually initiate new position trades during this time, but only short-term aggressive trades.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Last week was a perfect example of Mercury retrograde in both stock indices and precious metals. There were several days in which prices took out the daily support or resistance, only to close back above support or below resistance. This is known as "fake outs" and is a common occurrence under Mercury retrograde. It just reinforces our rule under Mercury retrograde: take profits too soon (i.e. take profits quickly, like every 1-4 days, and don't wait for your price target to get hit and don't expect a break of resistance to be a buy signal or a break of support to be a sell signal. It is just as likely to be a fake out.

Mercury will continue retrograde through August 8. For this week, it (Mercury retrograde) will form a sextile to Jupiter on July 24 and a trine to Uranus on July 25. Both of these are benign, and may give the equities a bit of a lift. Or, given that Mercury is retrograde and the rules don't always work, maybe it will not be much of a lift at all this time. There is not much else going on until July 31, except that Jupiter will sextile Uranus on Saturday, July 21 (see "Longer-Term Thoughts" below).

Longer-Term Thoughts

The longer-term planetary signature now unfolding is known as Jupiter in a waxing sextile to Uranus. We don't usually talk much about sextiles, for it is not as strong as the "hard aspects" of the conjunction, square, and opposition. And it is half the strength of the other favorable and harmonious aspect known as a trine. But it is not really a minor aspect, especially when Jupiter is involved. Unlike the trine, which is favorable in a way similar to "luck," which means "without much effort, opportunities come to you," the sextile is favorable as a result of smart thinking. It is a mental aspect, and one makes gains through good decisions and well-thought out intellectual analysis that usually turns out to be correct.

But these sextile aspects can also have a correlation to market turns, especially when Jupiter (planet of opportunity and 'good luck") is involved. Like most aspects, the sextile can either mean the end of a difficult time and the start of a favorable one, or the end of a favorable up move in markets and the start of a down move. But when we talk about aspects between Jupiter and planets beyond its orbit (like Uranus), these changes in trend don't usually happen right on the day. They can be up to six weeks away. And so it is that Jupiter will sextile Uranus on Saturday, July 21, and thus we look to the time band of six weeks surrounding right now to produce a major trend change.

Here is how this aspect is described – based on its history over the past 140 years, in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles: "This is a reliable signature for timing troughs. In eight of ten cases a 50-week or greater cycle trough occurred within 1 month of the waxing sextile between Jupiter and Uranus. In fact, even if a crest coincided, it was usually 1–3 months before the aspect… then dropped to form a 50-week or 22.5-month cycle trough within 1 month of it. Then the market would embark upon a strong 4–14 month rally. In these cases, investors may use this signature to time purchases of stocks — if a 50-week or 22.5-month cycle trough appears to be forming within 1 month of the aspect."

So as we look at the current instance of this long-term planetary signature, we note that the highest price in three years was attained on May 1, 2012, which was two months ago. If that high at 13,338 in the DJIA holds, it will become labeled as the 4-year cycle crest. This fits its past history of exhibiting such a long-term cycle crest 1-3 months prior to the aspect. But then we note that an important low formed on June 4, which was six weeks ago (or, one month). Measured from the prior low of October 4, 2011, one could say the low June 4 was within the time band of a 50-week cycle trough (range is 38-62 weeks, and that was 42 weeks). The only problem is that this 4-year cycle has not been exhibiting 50-week subcycles. So we are down to this analysis based on this aspect: if June 4 was the 50-week cycle low measured from October 4, 2011, the market would likely be up for the next 4-14 months following June 4, 2012. But if prices cannot exceed 13,338, then chances are greater that the market could fall hard into the 4-year cycle trough due late this year through early 2013 when the "Fiscal Cliff" arrives if the impending explosion in new taxes is not repealed.

Based on Uranus squaring Pluto – a perfect symbol for "falling off a fiscal cliff" due to an explosion of taxes (especially dividend and capital gains taxes) – the stock market is still fundamentally on course for a 30% or greater decline by early 2013. Most analysts think the President and Congress will come to an agreement to avoid this fiscal disaster. I wish I could be as confident. With Pluto in Capricorn square Uranus in Aries, I think it would be unwise to not take steps to protect your investment capital against such an eventuality. These are not signatures of an agreement that takes into account what is best for the country. These are signatures in which people – political leaders – are more apt to act in a manner that causes more harm and destruction than solution, due to past grievances. It's payback time. With Pluto, it could be a time of healing. But for that to happen, it means 1) overcoming past psychological patterns, 2) admission of wrongs, and 3) forgiveness. With Uranus in Aries (a potentially ruthless, self-serving, and merciless combination), these positive possibilities are nothing to hold your breathe for. Still, holding your breath can be a good thing for other reasons. Just remember to occasionally exhale.

Announcements

We are gearing up for our first workshop under the auspices of MMA's Market Timing Academy (MMTA), to take place September 15-16. This will be the pre-training course on "Beginning Principles of Financial Astrology for Financial Market Timing," taking place in Troy, Michigan, at the Management Education Center of Michigan State University. This 10-12 hour course may be attended live, in person, or via webcast televised to your computer. An archive of this workshop will be available for 30 days afterwards to those who sign up. This workshop will basically train non-astrologers in the use of reading an ephemeris, which is the table of planetary positions for any given day. This is essential to anyone who wishes to understand how to find a geocosmic critical reversal date for financial markets. It is not a difficult task, but it does require some training. This course (or audit of it) is a pre-requisite for anyone entering the MMTA market training course, which will officially begin April 6-8, 2013, and will involve 8 weekends of study – 4 weekends each in 2013 and 2014. For more information, please go to www.mmacycles.com. Or, http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/. The cost for the September 15-16 pre-training workshop is $395.00 ($300 for MMA subscribers), or $50.00 to take an Equivalency Exam for those who register by September 1. There will be an additional $50.00 late fee assessed for those who sign up afterwards. This cost will be deducted from the fee of the two-year training course to those who enroll in the MMTA 8-course program by October 15, 2012. For those who wish to enroll in the 2-year MMTA market timing course, and already know how to read an ephemeris, you will be able to audit the introductory training course in about two weeks. The equivalency exam is ready and we are simply working on a format for you to take this exam. Everyone entering MMTA must either take the introductory pre-training, or demonstrate their ability to read an ephemeris by taking the Equivalency Exam. To sign up for the Equivalency Exam please contact Amber Lundsten at ordersmma@msn.com or call 1-248-626-3034 and set up your time to take it. If you plan to come to Troy, Michigan to take the course, also contact Amber for hotel suggestions and special discount rates. If you plan to take the course via webinar, kindly let us know by September 1 (and save money). To do so, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to the bottom of the opening page titled "Introductory Workshop on Basic Principles…." We are pleased to announce that we are nearly done with the re-writing and editing of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles." We expect this book to be in print sometime in September – hopefully in time for the September 15-16 workshop. This means that the special $75.00 pre-order rate will end August 15. At that point, the normal rate of $125 (plus postage) will go into effect. To take advantage of the special pre-order discount price, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/.

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

We are also pleased to announce a new MMA Weekly report titled: MMA Weekly Treasuries, Soybeans, and Crude Oil Report. This will be a 3-5 page report offering comments, analysis, forecasts, and trading strategy for next week's market activity in the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes (Treasuries), Soybeans, and Crude Oil futures only. List of support/resistance areas, trend indicator points, geocosmic and lunar reversal points for the week, cycles phasing, and recommended buy and sell strategies. The cost is $750/yr or $250/3 months. We will offer a one-month trial subscription for $50.00, available only until August 15, as part of our introduction to this new service. Subscriptions are delivered by downloadable postings on the MMA Website, which is entered via your personal password. It is also delivered via an email attachment to all subscribers over the weekend before the market opens.

The DVD of the Denver Workshop on Financial Market Timing is still available! This financial markets workshop offers a completely unique and original perspective, integrating 1) Market Timing studies, 2) Price Objective calculations, 3) Technical Analysis, 4) Pattern Recognition studies, and 5) Trend Analysis. The primary focus of this workshop is on Market Timing Studies, particularly Cycles Analysis and Geocosmic Studies, as leading indicators that identify when to anticipate a reversal in all financial markets. Gold and the U.S. stock market are studied in great detail, especially regarding their current status. There is a wealth of timely and valuable information in this DVD, especially pertaining to the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012, lasting through March 2015, and the important Jupiter correlation to stock market cycles coming up August-November 2012 and March-May 2013. The cost for this 4-hour DVD is $180.00 plus postage. To order, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/dvd-of-boulder-workshop-on-financial-market-timing!!!/. Or call Amber at 1-248-626-3034. If you are a trader or investor who appreciates the value of market timing – especially in the next few months – this is a presentation you will not want to miss!

Our 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

EVENTS:

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, Holiday Inn, 3600 Plymouth Rd, in beautiful Ann Arbor, Michigan. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology and Financial Market Timing with Raymond Merriman on Thursday, August 2. Featuring over 20 astrologers, including Michael Lutin, Chris McRae, Bob Thibodeau, Dennis Fairchild, Monica Dimino, Richard Smoot, Grace Morris and others. For more information, call 303-828-5445, 303-604-2777, or email macasrtrology@yahoo.com, or go to http://macastrology.tripod.com/.

September 15-16, 2012: Troy, Michigan. MMTA – the Merriman Market Timing Academy – will conduct its pre-curriculum introductory workshop on "Basic Principles of Geocosmic Studies for Financial Market Timing." Deadline for registration to this workshop is September 1, 2013. For further information, please visit http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/events/%93basic-principles-of-geocosmic-studies%94-workshop-september-15%1116,-2012/, or the bottom of the opening page on www.mmacycles.com. Or contact mmacustomerservice@gmail.com or ordersmmma@msn.com,

April 6-8, 2013: MMTA Course 1: "Cycles and Chart Patterns in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This will be the first of eight courses given by The Merriman Market Timing Academy (MMTA). It is available to those who attend onsite, or via a live webcast that will take place from 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Saturday and Sunday, as well as Monday from 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM, followed by a two-hour exam for those wishing to receive a certificate upon the completion of the MMTA entire 8 course program. The raw footage will be available for review for attendees for the 30 days following this course.

June 15-17, 2013: MMTA Course 2: "Geocosmic Correlations to Long-Term Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

August 10-12, 2013: MMTA Course 3: "Geocosmic Correlations to Primary and Trading Cycles in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

October 12-14, 2013: MMTA Course 4: "Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Reversals in Financial Markets" with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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