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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning April 25, 2011
Written by Raymond Merriman
The Market Week in ReviewThere is hope. And then, there is reality. Last week saw stock prices rebound smartly after a sharp sell-off on Monday, following S&P's first negative long-term outlook on the U.S. economy. Two days later, as the Sun moved from Aries into the money sign of Taurus on Wednesday, April 20, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 187 points and at its highest level since early June 2008, nearly three years ago. The earning reports were positive and hope was returning. But at the same time Crude Oil was also back near its highest level since September 2008, Silver at its highest level since 1980, and Gold at a new all-time high. Also, the U.S. Dollar fell below 74.00 for the first time since August 2008 while the Swiss Franc soared to new all-time highs and the Euro currency exploded back above 1.4600 for the first time since December 2009. Why is the stock market soaring at the same time commodities like Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil are also rising? And why is the Dollar falling to levels that we previously warned would start to sound alarm bells all over the world? There is hope, and then there is reality. In astrology, hope comes under the domain of Jupiter and fire signs. Reality comes under Saturn and earth signs. Last week the Sun, Mercury, Mars, Jupiter and Uranus were all in the fire sign of Aries. Venus moved into Aries last week too, as the Sun moved into the earth sign of Taurus. Five planets will continue in Aries until May 11, when Mars moves in to Taurus, the earth sign. And then on June 4, Jupiter – the big one – moves into Taurus. It is taking a while, but slowly hope is moving steadily towards reality. But for now, the world is beginning to wake up to a reality that all of these markets – stocks, precious metals, crude oil – are all rising in terms of the U.S. Dollar devaluation that has been orchestrated by the USA government and its Central Bank. The rate of ascent in these markets is not nearly so pronounced if measured against currencies like the Euro, Swiss Franc, or Japanese Yen. Which is why it is important to note the April 20 Wall Street Journal, headlining a front page article titled "China Speeds Yuan Push." Yes, that is right. China is reducing their dependency on the U.S. Dollar because the U.S. Dollar is entering a zone where it is risky for foreign entities to continue holding dollars. "Further evidence that Beijing is reducing its reliance on the dollar came Monday (April 18), when a state-run agency reported that 7% of China's foreign trade in the first quarter was conducted in Yuan, up from .5% a year earlier,"stated the Wall Street Journal's article. That is a serious jump. This is reality coming to a bank near you. It is not like the Chinese didn't warn the U.S. over a year ago that they believed U.S. monetary and fiscal policies were misguided and would create "Asset Bubbles." It is not like the U.S. should have ignored or dismissed their warnings, which they did. China holds more than $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, mostly in dollars. And so it is no wonder that someone like Donald Trump – the epitome of the symbolism associated with Uranus in Aries – should find a receptive audience for his exploration into a presidential run in the 2012 election by accusing the USA leadership of woeful monetary and fiscal mismanagement. Yet, one cannot just dismiss the history of the American people either, and their capacity for invention and innovation that has always led the nation through difficult times like this before. Of course we need leadership to enhance – and not deter and frustrate - that wealth of creativity. But back to the markets: stock markets soared last week. That provides hope. Yet the Dollar fell below not just 75.00, but even 74.00 last week. That's reality. Alarm bells are going off all over the world. And of course leaders in the White House, Congress, and Treasury assure us that it is nothing to worry about, nor is the S&P's first-ever negative rating on the long-term U.S. economic future anything to worry about. But the reality is: it is happening. And because it is happening, the "Asset Inflation Express" is not only back on track, but cranking up to a speed that will soon be unsustainable if nothing is changed. After all, one of the biggest bends on that track is coming up fast. It is on June 4, +/- a couple of weeks, when Jupiter leaves the sign of acceleration (Aries), and tries to apply the brakes (Taurus) before flipping over. Maybe I am an optimist. There is hope now springing forth from the study of cycles. For an article I just wrote on the future of the U.S. Dollar, go to the front page of our website at www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the article. Short-Term GeocosmicsMercury retrograde is now over. It didn't go out meekly, as many markets are still struggling with conflicting signals from both leaders in government and economic reports. Some of the world is experiencing high inflation and sharply rising home prices (like the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China). Others, like the USA and Europe, are experiencing falling home prices and stable inflation (according to the measurements that they currently use). As we leave Mercury retrograde now for three months, we also come to the end of a slew of major aspects involving Venus, the planetary dynamic related to wealth, money, and love. On Friday, April 22, Venus formed its conjunction with Uranus. On Wednesday, April 27, it will form a waxing square to Pluto (debt), followed by an opposition to Saturn (not enough love or money) on April 30. As stated in last week's column, "For those who study astrology, you will recognize that Venus is forming a powerful T-square pattern to Uranus, Pluto, and Saturn, April 22-30. This is a tough sledding for compromises and agreements. But the good news is that May looks much more conducive to a change in positions. It might just represent the best month, the best chance, for our elected representatives to come to a budget (and debt ceiling) agreement, and thus prevent the shutdown of the USA government and the default on its debt that is now scheduled to take place in the first week of July." So here is hope again. Hope that our political leaders will construct a solid and realistic proposal that they can agree upon for reducing debt, deficits, and avoiding the dreaded default. The geocosmic window of opportunity for that is approaching very fast. But it won't last long. They need a more realistic sense of urgency. They need an astrologer to encourage them to take advantage of this favorable time band coming up. In the meantime, once we pass the Venus-Saturn opposition, there is nothing blocking the path of the "Asset Inflation Express." Its only danger is driving too fast, too recklessly. And on that point, we note that next week also finds heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius, once of the wildest patches in the cosmos, and a time when precious metals can trade in very large price ranges. With five planets still in Aries, get ready for another crazy week. Longer-Term Thoughts"Even in the U.S., Americans are buying commodities (oil per barrel: $111) and gold ($1500 an ounce) as a dollar hedge, and the state of Utah recently took steps to make it easier for citizens to buy and sell gold as a de facto alternative currency. Whether or not these prove to be wise investments, they are certainly signals of mistrust in Washington's economic stewardship." - Wall Street Journal editorial page, April 21, 2011. The quote above says it all. Onward and upward over the proverbial "Wall of Worry" goes the "Asset Inflation Express" of Jupiter and Uranus in Aries through the next few weeks, along with three other planets. The rhetoric will likely be confrontational and hostile with Aries highlighted, but the financial markets will offer great profit opportunities and dangerous loss possibilities. It is not a time for the meek to inherit anything, let alone the Earth. The future is now for the bold and assertive. It will start to change as we progress through the month of May and into June. In the meantime, this has been an excellent period for our weekly and daily subscribers. Position traders have remained long the stock indices since last November when the DJIA dipped below 11,000, and long Gold for several weeks from 1260/ounce. Aggressive traders are also long Gold and Silver and Soybeans, as has been the case several times over the past several months (our reports give recommendations for both position and aggressive traders). But we will soon be exiting these long-term positions after all this time. |
Announcements
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them."
Special Offer!!! Good while supplies last! New or renewing subscribers to any MMA subscription services will receive FREE one copy of the "English version only" of the Forecasts 2011 Book (postage cost not included). This offer is available to all MMA subscription reports, except 2-issue trials of the MMA Cycles Report. This offer ends when the remaining copies are sold out, and it does not apply to the foreign translated versions unless announced on their respective websites. To get your free copy of Forecasts 2011 with a subscription to an MMA reports, simply go tohttp://www.mmacycles.com/services/. When you place order, mention "special offer" under the comments section of your order. Or call us at 1-248-626-3034.
The Forecast 2011 Book is still available in both printed edition and electronic book format. The remaining printed copies are currently $55.00, but will be marked down to $40.00 beginning May 1, then $35.00 June 1, and finally to $30.00 on July 1, should any copies still be available. The electronic book version of the book is also available via I Pad, the I Phone 4, and Amazon Kindle, but those prices cannot be changed The Amazon Kindle edition is available to anyone anywhere in the world. Just go to their bookstore and type in "Raymond Merriman" or "Forecast 2011." It is available in Spanish as well. It is also available via ITunes if you have the Apple I Pad or I Phone 4. Both the English and Spanish versions are available in this format to any resident of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, United Kingdom, or the United States. If you are not a resident of these countries, you can still order it if you have an email address registered via one of these countries. Just go to ITunes, and then "Library," then "Store," then in the field titled "Search," type in "Forecast 2011" or "Raymond Merriman" (without quotation marks).
The printed version of the Forecast 2011 Book is also still available in Chinese, Swiss, Dutch, Japanese, Spanish, and Russian versions. The Chinese book contains an analysis of the Hang Seng stock market. The Japanese Book contains an analysis of the Nikkei index. We are pleased to announce that that this year's book may be purchased at these websites, and in these languages: Chinese: at http://www.zzdcycles.com Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/ Japanese: at http://merriman.jp Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/ Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com
The final Volume 5 of "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing" series is nearly finished. This will complete a project started in 1996. The previous 4 volumes have been on "when" to buy and sell, or how to forecast a future cycle low or high. This last volume addresses the subject of "where" to buy and sell, or "forecasting price targets." It is the missing link. It details the mathematical formulas and technical studies used to enhance timing of entry and exit in any market, but especially stock indices. The book is expected to be out sometime between August-November 2011. If you have any of the first four volumes, you will soon be receiving a special pre-publication offer for advanced orders (or call us to place your order if you want to make sure you are on the list). We should point out that Volumes 2 and 3 will probably be sold out before this new volume comes out. There are less than 25 copies of each available. We will allow them to remain out of print for awhile before reprinting.
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to MMA services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 247-0600. Duke will be with us in Kansas City for those who wish to personally meet him. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. He is also the individual who first introduced me to the idea of "Asset Inflation Express" back in 2009. I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the "Best in-house fund of funds" in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, you may contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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