Saturday, December 27, 2008

Bond and banks update

Borrowing from Tony Caldaro's charts again (there are several pertaining to bonds, around pages 9-11 in his chart lists, which you can find by starting at his site listed in "other sites of interest" to the right), first here's his LIBOR chart which may show interesting signs of a significant low (including bullish RSI divergence):

And, then of course, the 10-year Treasury chart ... you already know I'm questioning whether it still needs to poke a new high, since it missed a long-term Fib. target by 5 cents - or whether that was enough and it's about set to roll over, with lower bond prices and higher interest rates. A move like that wouldn't be limited to just the 10-year Treasuries, although it will be interesting to see how it affects the yield curve generally (and spreads between Treasuries and other instruments such as corporate bonds).
That odd-looking price marked Wednesday last week, closing just above 119, if it's valid raises a possibility whether it marked some kind of wave 4 low with yet another movement to complete the cycle peak:



As for the banking sector - Citigroup continues to look broken ... IMHO ...

The banking industry itself can be a different story, and looking at the $BKX chart (below), I wonder whether it might need a new low first - but then, can complete its correction?

If it does need another new low, it would be great if it can do that with positive RSI divergence, of course. That's already showing for the most recent lowest point, so - unless the correction is over and it can break above trendline resistance - there can be hope for the banking industry in general ...
Looking at it very simply, one would think that banks' ability to borrow at very low rates facilitated by the FED, and then lend out at somewhat higher rates, should be supportive for the banking industry, at least for a while (and if that's enough for the banks to address other problems in that industry!).

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