Friday, December 19, 2008


Surprising to me, the $UST did not poke above Wednesday's high in order to land on the lower of the two Fibonacci levels I calculated on the monthly chart! Leaving open the possibility that it still needs to poke up a few pennies in the price, in order to get to the Fibonacci objective.

By comparison - the $USB and the TLT (TLT not shown, I posted it yesterday and I think it's on DoctorK's charts he posted last night here) did poke higher yesterday. I was trying to decide yesterday if TLT had finished its wave up, from an Elliott Wave perspective.

Another friend forwarded to me a chart from another person who was giving permission to show it, a chart depicting the yields, I just haven't been able to line it up for posting it. However, it does look essentially like Tony Caldaro's chart of the Treasury yields that I posted recently. The point is obvious - many eyes are on bonds now and speculating where is "the top" (at least for this cycle high, if not for all time perhaps) ...!

Looking at oil, $WTIC did not poke a new low where the "oil futures" and USO did. As I mentioned yesterday, lots of volume is interesting in the USO chart, and obviously there are many, many folks watching oil and trying to trade it - probably "too many" (of course a lot of program trading of it).

I won't re-post the chart of X (U.S. Steel) but if you are looking for a long trade, it could become one that's better than oil, especially if we get a good pullback entry in it ... there are some indications that steel may make new highs (no kidding!). Frank Barbera wrote an interesting article at Financial Sense Online on Tuesday about industrial metals - he didn't specifically mention steel, but steel was mentioned by another source that I tend to trust - so I'm becoming quite interested in it.

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