Thursday, January 29, 2009

Is a bearish TRIN signal coming home to roost?

I just posted the hourly as well as this daily chart of the TRIN, at my UBT site - along with many other current hourly charts of the SPY, QQQQ, VIX, bonds ETF (TLT), dollar ETF (UUP), gold (GLD), oil (USO), euro (FXE), yen (FXY), US Steel (X), and the banking index ETF (KBE). So check that out for an overview of many markets we're keeping an eye on. I'm getting the impression that many of our theses may be playing out - equities weak, bonds searching for a tradable low, euro weak but yen strong, gold potentially weak ... and markets like the banks and steel could work out swing low pullbacks while the broader markets fall off lower. I'm talking about movements taking place over days and into weeks.

Therefore, I agree it's too early to make any great pronouncements. But so far I'm not seeing anything that surprises me. (And you know how I'm viewing each of these if you've been reading here, and/or you can check with the labels to the right both here and at my trading-chart UBTNB3 site.)

By the way, from a fundamental perspective, very good analysis in comments by Niall Ferguson this morning in Alexis Glick's (Fox Business News) interview. Check it out if you have the opportunity.

One of the things we discussed here recently was a way to use the TRIN with its 3-day moving average, and it was flashing a bearish signal that usually kicks in a couple of days later. Today's weakness in equities may be the effects showing up now. Whether it turns into something more, is something I'm evaluating with the Elliott Wave count hypothesis I also reviewed here yesterday, and mentioned with the charts this morning - the possibility that more turbulence lies ahead ... As always, be careful out there, and happy trading all!

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