Merriman's weekly commentary, week starting 2/2

Here is Raymond Merriman's public weekend update, or at least major quotes from it (read the entirety at his site included in the list at right side of this page) - whether or not you buy into the astrology (so to speak - though often uncanny calls), always a good grip on the tone of the times and fascinating read:

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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning February 2, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview
The January 23 geocosmic critical reversal date coincided with an expected trough (low) in most stock indices of the world last week. And those lows have so far held above the lows of November 21 and/or late October, which started the current primary cycle for most stock markets. But there is still danger.

In the Far East and Pacific Rim, the Australian All Ordinaries bottomed at 3300 right on January 23. That low was a re-test of the 3201 level of November 21, but the rally towards 3500 by the end of the week was not enough to confirm this as the start of new primary cycle. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was closed most of the week in observance of the Chinese New Year on last Monday’s Solar Eclipse. But following a low of 12,439 on January 21, it rallied smartly to 13,560 last Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei Index bottomed on Monday, January 26, at 7671, which was also a successful re-test of its October and November lows of 6995 and 7406. By Thursday it was up to 8305 before settling back to close just below 8000. India’s Nifty Index bottom at 2661 on January 23 and managed to climb back to 2881 by Friday. In all cases, the lows of the January 23 period held above the lows of last October-November. In all cases, the rallies lasted until the last two days of this past week, but those rallies were not enough to confirm that primary cycles were completed. With the Venus “translation” to the Cardinal Climax planets still in effect through the end of this coming week, danger is still present.

In Europe, the Netherlands AEX bottomed at 227.53 on our January 23 reversal date, which was a successful re-test of the 220.12 low of November 21. The German DAX index also bottomed on January 23, at 4067, which formed a successful re-test and triple bottom to the 4014 and 4034 lows of October 24 and November 21. The same pattern was evidenced in the London FTSE, which bottomed at 4046 on January 23, well above its lows of October and November. The Swiss SMI Index however was not so impressive. After putting in a low at 5194 on January 23, and rallying to 5457 the next day (Monday, January 26), it fell back again to 5241 intraday on Friday. In fact, all the other European indices topped out Thursday, only to start a retreat into Friday, thus calling into question just how stable the January 23 critical reversal date will be.

A similar pattern was present in the USA stock markets. After bottoming at 7909 last Friday, January 23, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to 8405 on Thursday, closing up over 200 points. However, in typical Mercury retrograde fashion, that bullish signal was negated the very next day as it sold off and closed down 226 points. By Friday, it was trading below 8000 again. That was true in the NASDAQ Composite, which made a low of 1434 last Friday, January 23. By Wednesday it was up to 1568. But by Friday, it was back down below 1475. Once again, we see the fickle nature of markets under Mercury retrograde, in which buy and sell signals do not last more than 1-4 days. In fact, it confirms our belief that during these times, we will see more than usual number of “fake outs” of various technical signals.

Gold and Silver formed an impressive top last Monday, and started a healthy sell off. But those sell-offs suddenly reversed on Thursday and by Friday, both were well above Monday’s highs. What is most interesting is that these sharp rallies in the metals occurred while currency prices were declining against the US Dollar. The story is that in times of uncertainty, Gold and the US Dollar are seen as safe havens. But we have been in a time of uncertainty for quite some time now, and the Dollar has gone opposite metals for most of this period, as would be “normally” expected – except under Mercury retrograde, when the “norm” is no longer is reliable.

Short-Term Geocosmics
The Mercury retrograde period ends this weekend, February 1. However, it may take all of this week before markets return to more normal technical conditions, especially given that the Employment and Payroll reports will come out Friday, February 5. If that is not enough to make the market on edge, consider also that Saturn will makes its second of five oppositions to Uranus that day, and Venus will complete its “translation” of the Saturn, Uranus, Pluto T-square then as well. As stated last week, “… but more relevant to market reversals is the translation of Venus to the developing Cardinal Climax planets of Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto. These three planets are moving towards an 80-90 year T-square configuration with one another. From January 22 through February 5, Venus will first conjunct Uranus (January 22), then form an opposition to Saturn (January 24), and finally a square to Pluto (February 5)…. Thus these markets either reverse in this time band (January 23-26), or else they break down and enter a “panic” phase, which has been the pattern with these translation periods in about 80% of cases in the past year.”

This week is important. Will the lows of January 23-26 hold? Or will they break and be followed by yet another panic? The answer will tell us something about the status of the longer-term trend. I have my bias which will be shared with subscribers in this week’s weekly report.

Longer-Term Thoughts
What ARE they thinking? The economy is headed into its deepest recession since the 1930’s, the stock market has suffered its greatest decline since the 1930’s, and the government has taken nearly $1 trillion of taxpayers’ monies to “rescue” the banking and financial services industry that is perceived to be at the root of this problem. And what do these Wall Street and banking firms do with that money? They give bonuses exceeding $4B to their executives and buy new corporate jets for travel convenience for these same executives. Are these businesses and banking leaders really so out of touch with Main Street that they cannot see why even President Barack Obama calls this behavior “irresponsible and shameful?” Apparently so, but this fits right in with the nature of the long-term planetary signatures in effect right now.

As discussed at length in both the 2008 and 2009 Forecast books, Saturn is now in Virgo, September 2, 2007 through October 29, 2009, with a brief return April 7-July 21, 2010. Saturn pertains to dissatisfaction, a feeling of frustration and lack of support. Virgo rules the work force. Typically when Saturn transits through Virgo and Libra – the middle of the zodiac - there is a heightened sense of social injustices to the “common man,” or “Main Street.” It is a time when workers can feel taken advantage of, treated unfairly. If this frustration reaches a certain level, workers become rebellious, and demand change, or else they strike. .....

But what is most astounding is that this same failure in sensitivity by banking and financial leaders is continuing even after the rout in the election, and even after the crisis in the banking system has occurred, and even after taxpayers’ monies have been tapped to come to the “rescue” of these banks. ... But then again maybe this should not be so surprising to Financial Astrologers. After all, Saturn is still in Virgo, and later this coming week, it will make its second of five opposition aspects to Uranus. Only three more to go. At this rate, one has to wonder what will be left of U.S. banks and financial institutions by July 2010 when the fifth and final passage takes place. What will be left of the “management class” when the “common man” (and Obama) gets done with them? Saturn opposite Uranus, to be followed by Saturn square Pluto, and then Uranus square Pluto. It sounds like a 5-year funeral procession for a class of people (“executives-on-greed” steroids) about to become extinct. We may see another giant fall in the next five weeks, and even days. I just don’t see Obama having much sympathy if one of these institutions teeters on the edge right now. And some are. They are going down, unless they wake up and act more responsible and socially sensitive in his eyes. This attitude that they are “too big to allow to fail,” isn’t going to cut it with the new sheriff in town.

Announcements
The “SOS Global Market Cycles Report” will come out this week, Tuesday, February 2. And it will be out one day later in German to our German SOS subscribers (please go to www.mma-europe.ch in to order the German version of SOS). This SOS monthly report addresses the long- and intermediate-term cycles that affect all world markets, but specifically through the history of the U.S. stock market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is the “big picture” ahead, like where we are now in terms of the 18- and 4-year cycles. It also discusses the shorter cycles (primary and its phases) of the German DAX, Netherlands AEX, the Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the XAU Gold and Silver Mining index. The German edition also covers the Swiss Market Index (SMI). For information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/services/the-sos-stock-market-cycles/.

For those interested in learning or improving your understanding of astrology, please note that a fantastic conference in Astrology is going to take place August 19-24, 2009, at the luxurious Oakbrook Hills Marriot Resort, just outside of Chicago (not far from O’Hare Airport). This will be the ISAR (International Society for Astrological Research) 2009 conference, featuring over 80 professional astrologers from all over the world, including Jeff Jawer, Rick Levine, Michael Lutin, Claude Weiss, Nick Campion, Verena Bachmann, and several Financial Astrologers, including myself. There will be a whole track on Financial Astrology, and I will be giving a one-day workshop on Financial Astrology the day after the main conference. For more information, and registration, please go to www.isar2009.com. For those who golf, note that this resort has one of the most impressive golf courses on the PGA tour. Golf where the pros golf, and learn astrology from some of the best astrologers in the world, all at the same time!
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Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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