Trader's eye on bonds and TLT

As I have mentioned several times recently, here and at my UBTNB3 site (including a trader's chart earlier today at UBTNB3), I'm concerned about the idea of calling bonds in a wave 3 down.

Look what is happening now - I'm not saying it couldn't be in a smaller fourth wave up before continuing lower, I'm just saying traders need to be careful with this.

I can't do a detailed analysis right now, so just pointing out that my instincts on this one are telling me that holding short isn't necessarily a low-risk proposition. I covered my shorts after posting at the UBTNB3 site earlier, and I can either re-enter on a break under yesterday's lows or from another perch that may look right after eyeballing this some more.

(If you have been reading here a while, you know that I reserve some concern that bonds may yet make a surprise new high. I know! - sounds crazy, but my idea is partly based on how I count out the Elliott Wave pattern (and a little bit based on Fibonacci too). So, let's use prudent trading techniques and exercise some caution as we let bonds tell us where they want to go from here.)