Wolfes can run with gold bugs - for a little while anyway

Some (not all!) Elliott Wave analysts have had an upward B wave concept in the works for gold, a concept I've been referencing from time to time and it's been marked on my weekly gold chart (below). And of course I've also been showing my daily gold chart (below) as it's been updating, and warning again yesterday that gold was pushing up at key Fibonacci levels. Levels that could have been resistance, but upon nudging them, falling back, and then pushing up past them again, gave the warning that gold was on the move.
Egyptian scarab artifact; Guillaume Blanchard, July 2004

I've been advised that Wolfe wave analysts also have been projecting gold to higher levels, although I'm not an expert in that. Apparently the move down from the highs ~1033 with the three lower lows on the weekly charts since then qualifies as a Wolfe wave pattern that would complete a significant correction, pointing higher. And further, that the Wolfe wave projection would be in the range of 1200, and maybe higher. For that matter, I've also heard mention of "Lucas waves" and that some who practice that believe that gold has much, much farther to run. Hmm ... will see.

I can tell you that an Elliott Wave "B" wave could go to that area ~1200, and I even had a very long-term chart possible projection to 1192. Although my confidence in that level has been waning ... but of course we'll see. Such a "B" would have to be what's called an expanded flat. It's very possible to have a "B" wave that does not reach levels prior than the high (here, 1033) in which the B is only part of the correction. Now, I realize that all this talk of A, B, and C waves is confusing for non-Elliott Wave analysists. The point is, that viewing 1033 as "the high," and 681 as the bottom of a very much larger "A" wave, the big "B" wave upward (with its internal ABC counting up from 681) would be just part of the very big-picture correction - to be followed by a "C" wave to lower levels, well under 681.

I had marked a steeper channel within the bigger picture uptrend channels up from 681, and then gave the alert when a small H&S appeared ~899 and projected to a drop. That drop happened as expected, but what many may not have expected was that it made a neat test back to the larger uptrend channel line ... as I've been showing on my charts. Sure enough, that line acted as support, and I've been openly curious whether it would lead gold to higher levels. You can refer to my prior posts for more detail on all that.

The gold cycle charts from ChartsEdge that I just posted here for the upcoming week, shows a fast rise to ~1000. That's got me back to the concept of the very large "B" wave, counting out as a three-wave (ABC) movement up from 681. For that matter, Elliott Wave theory states that "C" waves tend to be strong trend movements (in the nature of impulse third waves). Here are my charts (below). The only new annotation or marking I've made, is a note at the top of the first chart about the C=A projection for a larger "B" wave. I marked the C=A measuring up from 681 and thus pointing to 1024. (If you count from ~700 on the idea there was a truncted low at that level (or depending on how you measure the "A" top given the apparent small expanded flat with that small H&S ~899), the C=A projection actually is right about at 1000.)

Gold bugs, be aware - the theory of a large "B" wave up - whether it finishes at the ~1000 level, or even whether it morphs into a big expanded flat that sees a "B" wave top higher than 1033 (such as 1192 or 1200) - leads to a very large "C" wave down. Yes, a C wave ... one of those strongly trending waves ... for which the likely target would be something like 486, and so the only logical Elliott Wave way to play gold would be from the short side.

Are there other potential ways to view Elliott Wave or other methods, as pointing to much higher levels in gold? Such as 1600 or higher (which I've seen projected by some forecasters)? Well as I've said before, anything's possible ... I'm just in in the skeptical camp on that by now. We'll have to play it as it comes. The big take-away here is: gold investors may be living in interesting times!