Alternate Elliott Wave views of the S&P 500 near-term

There are always a few alternative possibilities for the near-term Elliott Wave in a chart, so let's look at the most prominent that I know of. First, there's Tony Caldaro with his Objective Elliott Wave methods. He recently revised his S&P 500 count to correspond with his Dow Jones Industrial Average count, and here it is:

Clearly, the count points yet lower, because after a 4th wave there is a 5th wave projected, in this case pointing down. So this count tells us that, after a 4th wave pullback or consolidation finishes working out, we can expect the SPX to fall lower.

Here's another EW count, although this one from a chartist I know as "cleo" is a very closeup view so it's a bit more difficult to "see" the context just from this view. It was part of a projection intraday yesterday, that already played out into the end of day yesterday. But it's worth a look, because it gives clues for other ways to consider the EW count on the scale of days:


And here's my effort to show some Elliott Wave alternatives. I guess one thought I've got is that, if I were using Tony's count, I would think that the wave 3 isn't quite done yet, and needs to complete its own little fourth wave and fifth wave down to finish the wave 3. Just my thought, which is very similar to the idea I marked in red below (although those markings are to show a small fourth wave and then fifth wave to complete a wave C down rather than Tony's wave 3 down). Frankly, I don't really think that levels higher than 690 will finish the move down, and I really think that the market actually needs to get to 640 (or perhaps lower). So my chart annotations are in terms of alternative EW counts that are part of a larger wave down:

Ultimately I think that we need to see the shape of the movements occurring over the next week or so, and I'm glad to have corroboration from Tony's thoughts as well as the ChartsEdge, T Theory and other good analyses which are indicating lower - to help give me confidence in my swing trading as I wait to see how the chart pattern shapes up.

Finally, for now, here's another chart contributed by trading buddy "Joe" - it shows a "fork" with downtrend lines that look like they will fit well. Today's rise was from the midline of this fork and if this fork holds, it will point to the projected decline being rather steep. So we'll also want to see whether this fork's trendlines are predictive in shaping the EW count down: