Friday, February 13, 2009

Gold still tip-toeing up to potential resistance (or pivot) ~958

Gold has been moving upward more tentatively than I expected, but still has been tip-toeing upward. Having moved above the 923 level, it got closer to 958 with two days of good buying volume. Today it was weaker as shown by the GLD chart (below). Underneath that, my channel-line-marked $GOLD charts haven't updated for today's price action yet. Looking at them all together, given that today looked like a light-volume pullback test, and gold having pushed above that 923 level while remaining within channel lines, I'm thinking that it's still working on a "B" wave objective.

After that, then yes, I'm still thinking it becomes subject to an impressive "C" wave down. If and when that happens, we'll know if only because it will become apparent on the indicators and by violating the channel lines. If it is a classic "B" wave flat, then it can actually go higher than the .786 retrace, since most flats have the "B" wave at least .90 retracing the A wave down. A 90% retracement would be at 998.61 on the $GOLD continuous contract chart. I won't get wedded to a number, but this is worth knowing if it pushes above 959 on good volumes. Interestingly, ~1000 also is around the area of one of the C=A counts depending on how you measure the move up from the 2008 lows.




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