Tuesday, February 10, 2009

How much difference does today's drop make in equities markets?

The S&P 500 dropped to a level that looks like it tests, again, a certain trendline up from the November 2008 lows. Stopping at that level means that many investors and traders must make some determinations whether this line can give support - again - or will it give way. If it does give way, the next question obviously becomes where's the next support? The 804.30 level in SPX would be one place to look; under that brings numbers like 760 and 750 into focus. For now, we'll have to see whether or not this trendline helps "the bulls" - here's how it looks on the daily chart:


And below is how my previously-constructed weekly-bars chart looks - interestingly it suggests the possibility of a kissback for potential support even if we move under today's low ... whether that might happen at or around 804, or possibly lower (depending on the speed of descent). For now, I'm just real glad that the ChartsEdge cycle forecasts clued us in for weakness to come in after this morning:

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