Sunday, February 15, 2009

If Lockheed Martin (LMT) flies, it should be above these trendlines

As part of my effort to show some assets and sectors that might still be bullish, to counterbalance my overall view that equities generally appear headed lower, let's look again at Lockheed Martin (LMT). Here's a followup view, since we looked at it recently as possibly having a new high still ahead. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it does still have the possibility that it's working off a fourth wave consolidation, and still has a fifth wave ahead to put in a new peak high. If that's a standard fifth wave high, then it should respect the uptrend channel lines I've marked on the weekly chart (the second of the two charts below). On the daily chart (the first of the two charts below), I've marked some near-term trendlines that look significant in this area also. Now, it's true that it could edge still a bit lower and remain in the longer-term uptrend, but we'd have to revisit the chart pattern if it broke under $66.85. And I'd rather not see it break under $70, for that matter. Here are the charts:

Now, I recognize that Lockheed Martin can be categorized into other sectors besides military and aircraft, such as green technology. But I'm focused on it because of a view I've been alerted to, that the military sector may be one of the next bubbles (steel being the other). So if we're looking to be long the next bubbles, LMT may be one component if it can hold these trendlines.

*Update: Wikinvest has a category for Aerospace & Defense, showing additional names in this sector (and that they all did well on Friday, definitely bullish when comparing against the general markets which declined on Friday). By the way, remember that I'm really focused on defense as such - I'm not putting out any opinions on the aerospace sector as such. Here's the info Wikinvest shows - looks like some of these companies did even better than LMT that day:

Top Companies (by Market Cap) - Aerospace & Defense industry
Symbol........Mkt Cap...Price..........% Change
LMT...........31.4B..........78.47..........(1.41%)
BA.............29.4B..........40.48..........(1.56%)
HON...........24B.............33.06..........(3.73%)
GD............21.2B..........54.49..........(1.23%)
BAESY.......19.8B..........22.48..........(1.17%)
RTN..........19.4B..........46.74..........(0.21%)
NOC..........15.4B..........47.19..........(1.79%)

Given my focus, I think the companies I should track in charting are Lockheed Martin (LMT), United Technologies (UTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC). Since we already looked at LMT in more detail above, here's just a quick look at how NOC and UTX look on their charts:


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