Merriman's weekly update and comments on equities, currencies, gold and oil

Comments for the Week Beginning February 23, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview
Welcome to Pisces, one of the coolest times of the year for intuition, imagination, romance, poetry, music, film, dreams, and fantasy. But you have to ask yourself: is it really fantasy if you experience it? Is the experience real, or is it a dream? And is it a pleasant dream, like “Camelot,” King Arthur, John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama? Or is it a dream turning into a nightmare, because in Camelot, King Arthur is betrayed by his most trusted friend. In John F. Kennedy, his life is cut short by an assassin’s bullet (“Good Bye, Ruby Tuesday….”). And in Barack Obama, is it the blackjack gamble of doubling up on the $trillion+ deficit by pushing through a nearly $1 trillion “stimulus” or “rescue” package? Is this throwing good money after bad? If he wins this hand, he will be a hero. But will he have to double down again (and again after that), because there is another risk waiting its turn as he tries again and again to conquer this multi-headed “money pit” monster he inherited? And is he really going to slay the monster, or just “enable” it? The nightmare would be a bad ending to all this. Except it hasn’t happened yet, but in poor Pisces, we aren’t sure what is real and what is fantasy, because we are only experiencing the nightmare (not the reality yet), and the nightmare itself is but a dream still. The result hasn’t yet been determined – except for those with very active imaginations, who firmly believe they see the dream’s ending, just as he firmly believes he sees its ending too, but with a happier conclusion. But how can there be two realities, two different results, that each dreamer claims is real? The reality is that no one knows, and everyone has an opinion based on their active imagination – especially in Pisces.

This is Pisces - a season of hope and a season of fear. A season of romance and love, but also doubt and uneven confidence in the end result. Where is this going? That’s what will be asked until spring (Aries) arrives on March 21. That should be interesting, because Pisces (winter) ends and Aries (spring) begins with another “translation” period of the Sun into hard aspects with the “Capricorn Climax” planets (Saturn-Uranus-Pluto, March 8-23). It may be a dream we wake up from in a cold sweat. The reality may be that are in the midst of another panic.

This last week saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall to a new 6-year low. But the other U.S. indices did not. The S&P and NASDAQ remained well above their lows of November 21, 2008, which was 2-3 weeks (17 calendar days) after the first of five Saturn-Uranus opposition passages on November 4. That date happened to be a high in stock prices – the end to a strong rally from late October. However, we have not seen prices that high since that date. The second passage just took place February 5, which is now 15-18 days prior to this Friday-Monday of February 20-23. Again the DJIA made a high nearby to this second Saturn-Uranus passage (8315 on February 9, two trading days afterwards). And from that high, the stock market has again fallen hard. Does it end here, 15-18 days later, as it did the first time? Or does it go lower still into the Sun’s “translation” of the Cardinal Climax planets, March 8-23? Such translations have coincided with very steep market declines in the majority of the past instances.

In other markets, Gold and Silver continued their torrid pace, reaching their highest levels since last summer, and Gold within striking distance of making a new all-time high. And why not? These are uncertain times, and central bank policies of the world are on course for a sudden reversal of deflation to inflation. But ironically, the U.S. Dollar is also soaring as investors seek “safe havens.” The Dollar is a safe haven, given these inflationary pressures? Something has got to give. Crude Oil tested its double bottom of 32.00-33.00 again, thus making a triple bottom. If it holds, prices could be double by the time Jupiter and Neptune come together in May-July. But if it breaks, it would be a statement that there is just too much oil available, and instead of higher prices, Jupiter and Neptune together coincide with too much supply.

Short-Term Geocosmics
Last week’s large price swings in financial markets and precious metals was not unexpected. As stated last week, “…heliocentric Mercury starts its 10-day trek through Sagittarius on Friday, February 20. Not only are one’s opinions expressed with exaggerated urgency, but so too are prices swings in many financial markets, especially precious metals, during this period. Yet none of this compares with the strength of the geocosmic signatures coming up March 6-12, when Venus turns retrograde, and the full moon will take place on the same degrees of the zodiac as the Saturn-Uranus opposition. Everything is building up into that time frame, like the pressure in a boiling pot of hot water. Everybody’s talking (shouting) but nobody is listening. And that can result in sharply falling stock prices, unless the mood and intention change quickly.” The mood and intentions did not change last week, and in response, the markets continue to fall in this next leg of the economic panic of 2008-2009. Welcome to the Cardinal Climax.

The Venus retrograde of March 6 is like a magnet, pulling prices sharply in their particular trend direction into the two weeks surrounding that event. The heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius is exaggerating these price swings, with psychological fears of an economic disaster in the making. I don’t see this trend changing until it peaks out, March 6-23. If you are on the right side, it can be a very profitable period. If not, it can be painful waiting for the reversal.

Longer-Term Thoughts
The Gold bugs may have it right this time. After declining 1.9% in December, the PPI (Producer Price index) shot up a remarkable +.9% for January, an upward swing of 2.8%! The CPI (Consumer Price Index) was down .8% in December but up .3% in January, a change of over 1%. As stated previously, this is consistent with the principles of Jupiter and Neptune approaching their conjunction in Aquarius, which is coming up May through July, 2009, with a third passage in December.

As discussed at length in this year “Forecast 2009” book, Jupiter conjunct Neptune has tendency to be very inflationary, and once it starts, it will be much faster and steeper than anyone expects or is prepared for. Except, maybe, the Gold traders. They seem very prepared for this phenomenon, which according to my understanding of financial astrology, will be very evident from May 2009-August 2010. We’re still approaching the “big time.”

But also during that time I think central banks will have no choice but to raise interest rates to fight inflation. Even though these banks will lag in their response to rising inflation numbers, once they start to raise rates, they too will do so very quickly and rates will rise very sharply. Sort of like what happened 30 years, 1979-1980, when Paul Volker was in charge (here he comes again, with Saturn returning to Virgo!). When that starts (sometime between November 2009-September 2010), Gold and Silver may lose their luster. The Dollar can soar and the currencies can fall hard against the Dollar to their 4-year cycle troughs. Then it starts up again, after Silver completes its 18-year cycle trough in 2010-2011, just in time for the 126-year hard aspect cycle of Uranus to Pluto (in Grand Square to the USA Sun-Saturn). This is not the steady up years of 1947-1966, nor 1982-2000 (Saturn in its waxing phase to Pluto). This is a whole new world, new reality, new era, we are entering. Saturn is waning to Pluto, and in fact about to enter its waning square phase November 2009-August 2010. This is the time that federal deficits sky rocket, followed by sharp increases in interest rates and taxes, and this can be exasperated by inflation (Jupiter-Neptune). Prices swings will likely be massive, as we shift back and forth from deflation to inflation to deflation to even greater inflation, as our “new sheriff in town” tries to conquer this multi-headed debt monster. Maybe it’s a good thing we allowed our children to be brought up as experts on Play Station, Nintendo and X-Box. Maybe they will know which buttons and joy sticks to press to slay the multi-headed monster that threatens the survival of the planet. If not, the only future that awaits may be a job in the government, the only employer that may be left on the planet. Let’s hope the next card up gives our man a 21, because the bank (Congress and the Treasury) is running out of money to lend for another hand.

Announcements
We are going to have another webcast, a “Virtual On-line Discussion and Market Update with Raymond Merriman!” to take place on Saturday, April 18, 2009, just as Venus goes direct. Starting time is 12:00 PM EDT (that’s 5:00 PM, GMT, or 9:00 AM, in Los Angeles). Via the modern technology of You-niversity.com, this “latest update” discussion on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks), can be heard in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You will hear the live voice and see the latest charts on your computer screen that will be the focus of this presentation. You can ask questions by logging on to our webcast that day, and inputting a pin number that you will be given upon receipt of your reservation for this event. This webcast will analyze the stock market, Gold and Silver, currencies, grains, T-Notes, and Crude Oil. It is a webcast you won’t want to miss if you are a trader or investor in any of these markets. The cost for this private discussion is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this on line event, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/virtual/ to register on-line. Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034, and we will email instructions and pin number on how to participate. The webcast will be available for viewing for 30 days afterwards for those who participate, or for those who can’t make that particular day.

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Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

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