Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Once again the yen is at a significant barometer level

Even if you are not trading currencies, there are reasons to watch the yen as a barometer of the Asian markets and really the effects on equities markets worldwide. This is partly due to the leftover carry trade issues too, of course. The yen on these charts measuring $XJY show it has reached a Fibonacci retrace level that's common for an Elliott Wave flat. It also results in overlap of the prior swing high, as mentioned in my recent discussion of the alternatives for the yen. When you look at the channel forked trendlines I've marked on the weekly chart, as well as my markings and annotations on the monthly chart, you will see additional reasons why this is a very significant level for the yen. For that matter, based on the potential Gartley pattern on the monthly chart, if the yen cannot hold in this area then a level about 93 is possible as I've noted on the monthly chart (lower levels such as the .786 retrace back to 80.55 would also be possible).


I sugges that for direct trading of currencies, it would be a good idea to "trade away from" the level it reached today. Its direction will likely correlate with the direction of equities markets too, although the correlated effects may not be immediate but over the course of a couple or few trading days.

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