Reasons to expect the Volatility Index to point the S&P 500 equities' path very soon

The VIX has wedged into a sort of triangle that will have to break either to the upside or the downside, taking the equities markets with it. There are certain things I look for with the VIX, and this post will show as many of them as I can reasonably put together this evening. This provides four views of the VIX. The first two are the daily, and then the weekly and monthly charts. The first daily chart is a "standard" type of chart, on which I've only placed a few trendlines. Really the main standout is that VIX is being "wedged" between the declining 50-day moving average, and the uptrending 200-day moving average (although the 200-day MA is flattening out some). The technical indicators look consistent with the VIX being in the wedge also - so I'm looking to see which way VIX "breaks out":


This daily chart shows the channel trendlines that I've developed over time, overlaid onto the standard daily chart (although it also does contain the Bollinger Bands on standard 20,2 setting, which seems helpful sometimes). Using this method, VIX is clearly in a small triangle wedged "into the corner" - which is, naturally, very consistent with the "wedge" shown on the simple chart above. A few days ago, I posted this when it had popped up against the descending line forming this "corner" and commented that it could still wedge into that corner over the next day or so. Which did happen! VIX will have to move out of this corner either by falling under the support trendline, or pushing above the downsloping resistance trendline. Once again, my view of the equities markets will be driven largely by which way the VIX "breaks out" of this small triangle:

Here's the VIX weekly chart. Main thing that stands out to me is the prior support that VIX bounced from, marked by the horizontal line, at the top (resistance) level of the multi-month consolidation of the late 2007-early 2008 time period ... as well as the Fibonacci retrace information I annotated onto the chart. One can also try interpreting the technical indicators on this chart, but I believe that those indicators are most likely to just come along with whichever way the VIX breaks out of the small triangle on the daily ... since the movement in either direction is likely to be significant from a Fibonacci perspective, and also to either confirm or break under that horizontal-line support level on this weekly chart (along with breaking under the channel support and 200-day SMA on the daily chart):


And here's the VIX monthly chart. You can see that, after pushing up the upper Bollinger Band strongly with the rise to that significant Fibonacci extension level peak that it reached, it pulled back but not to the Bollinger Band midline level. If it descends, it could get to that midline level; conversely, if it rises it can re-test up to the upper Bollinger Band. In the meantime, note that the 50-month moving average is about to touch, and likely cross up above the 200-month MA. That would be classically bullish for VIX and bearish for equities. Still - it can often happen that, along with the timing of such a significant cross-over, the chart price will do a quick test back to that cross-over area. The question on that now would be, whether the pullback we already saw was enough? If not, then if VIX does move lower to test back down to that cross-over level, it's quite likely to be temporary (fitting with the Elliott Wave large "B" or "X" wave bear market rally idea), because the cross-over implies VIX is likely to remain at elevated levels in months ahead.