So is the S&P 500 down for the count, for now?

So is the S&P 500 finished with that meager rally and heading lower? Or does it have room to make more of a rally first? As I marked on the S&P 500 chart below, I could see 748.88 as possible and still allow SPX to rally into early next week. I recognize it's not popular, nor fitting well with the ChartsEdge forecast for the whole week - clearly the bias is to the downside this week. Will prefer remaining above the horizontal red lines for this scenario of course. Getting into early next week will allow the markets to absorb new money for the month at relatively higher prices - something that has been documented as a discernible (though not 100% foolproof) monthly tendency.

This scenario is based on marking off a flat correction following a leading diagonal that would be wave A, the flat completing B, and then looking for C up. (Interestingly and disturbingly like a fractal of the markets off the November 2008 lows!!)





As you can see in the weekly cycle from ChartsEdge had forecast that Nasdaq would weaken off this week sooner than SPX, and that looks consistent with the McClellan Oscillator. My VIX indicator has not - yet - given a classic sell signal on the daily charts. A trading buddy was emailing me today about whether today should be the "sell". I've got to say, on one hand it is possible to front run my VIX indicator and sell today rather than wait until tomorrow. On the other, in the past when I have done that, sometimes I was rewarded and sometimes not (meaning sometimes it was too soon). Sorry but I've got to be conservative on how I interpret it. This also goes with what else I see going on. I do see that the ChartsEdge forecast doesn't seem to be giving us the rise into this time frame but that's not the only factor I use and look at. To me, in my humble opinion and leaving the Nasdaq aside, I don't see that we can rule out the markets continuing upward into early next week in order to complete a wave 4 or B-wave correction.

Yes, CPCE is low, but like the VIX, it's better to wait for a trigger because this chart shows that the CPCE does have room to move yet lower if it wants to.



The VIX - didn't move all the way to bottom of BB, and today it moved back to or almost to BB midline and 50 dsma. Going higher tomorrow and crossing up above that BB midline and 50 dsma would be a classic sell sign, it just hasn't happened yet.



TRIN is saying that selling now or extremely soon is likely a good idea. Doesn't mean TRIN cannot move a bit lower though - I read it is a likely indicator but not a guarantee.