A tale of four indices - banking, transports, Nasdaq and S&P 500 - and will they turn along with gold and perhaps currencies soon?

It's very interesting to see how these four indices - banking, the transports, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500, look rather different on the daily charts (below). We also stepped back to look at the transports here recently, only to find that the hypothetical triangle target at about 2600 also has the transports at a potential moving average and Fibonacci support area on the monthly big-picture charts. The banking index may be working out the completion of a diagonal pattern around a significant Fibonacci level, although the implications of the pattern don't yet tell us whether the banking industry can be given the "all-clear" (consistent frankly with the fundamentals in that industry), and not all components look so great (ditto). The S&P 500 is edging toward potential pivot/support levels mentioned by Andre Gratian, and separately by Tony Caldaro, as well as indicated by the T Theory work of Terry Laundry. And the Nasdaq looks more positive on the daily charts too, as well as remaining relatively higher than the S&P 500 (and Dow Jones Industrial Average) vis-a-vis the 2002/2003 lows.


What are we to make of all this? Frankly, I would "rather" that the S&P 500 make a clean drop to significantly lower levels (640 or below) so I could measure it out as a flat on the bigger picture chart and say that it can have completed a large fourth wave with bullish potential for a very large fifth wave up (to new highs). Instead I'm getting the feeling that the markets might actually be positioning for a rally from the levels we may reach over the next trading day or so. Not that I've got much go to on, other than the points I mentioned above. Well, then there's the VIX (which I posted, along with other charts in a "charts roundup", at my UBTNB3 site a few minutes ago, you can find via the link at right side of this page).... The VIX looked rather weak today. Of course that can change tomorrow! For that matter, TLT also ended up down on the day. And the dollar - which is moving nicely higher, thank you very much (and conversely the euro down, ditto) - still on track toward my target at 91, could run into moving average resistance soon. And then there's the yen, perhaps I am really missing something there, but the $XJY chart is threatening to break down out of the setup that I had measured off as being bullish. If it does, then I'll have to call it a bearish Gartley pattern and switch my position in it.

And then of course, there's gold ... also moving nicely higher, but I'm on the side of those who say it's moving into a trend reversal zone soon. If gold moves down in an Elliott Wave C, would that correspond with equities falling further as the dollar strengthens more? or in some way could it correspond with a move into equities with a rally in the equity indices? These are the types of questions I'm pondering this week as I see how these things are moving. Probably will still be on the table for pondering this weekend.

Meantime, here are charts of the SPX, NDX, BKX and transport index - you can find the gold, dollar, TLT and other charts at my UBTNB3 blogsite (just click on that link and you'll get right there):