Monday, March 23, 2009

ChartsEdge's forecasts of the gold market, Nasdaq and S&P 500 equities markets for week of March 23

Folks, I'm moving the ChartsEdge weekly forecast "up the page" on this blogspot. No change, but just want to draw attention to some of the numbers showing on it. The 838 number is a .786 retrace to the approximately 875 February highs, and that's one of the reasons why I have it as a significant number. I must assume that ChartsEdge indicating that level for later this week is based on something else, but not sure frankly what it's based upon. Similar note about gold, their forecast shows it up to about 997 and I re-checked something yesterday - that level is 90% retrace from the 681 low to the ~1033 peak, and an Elliott Wave flat commonly sees its (B) wave go to the 90% retrace (or higher). Just some things to keep in mind. Both these points clearly go to the idea of whether - or not - we are seeing rallies this morning (premarket) and this week that may - or not - have lasting significance.
I have no problem trading short-term these markets and numbers. I just have to keep focus on one of the primary purposes of this blogspot, that is to help swing traders and position investors as well as short-term and daytraders. The swing traders and position investors who are looking for a move lasting weeks or months deserve to keep an eye on important numbers that signal whether or not these rallies are confirmed to do that. We must get above such numbers in order to confirm that these rallies have more lasting value.

===== Here are the ChartsEdge cycle forecasts for the upcoming week. Folks, I don't want to give anything away if you haven't subscribed to and therefore seen the longer-term forecasts beyond this week, from ChartsEdge. All I can say is, I may need to revisit my thinking for gold AND equities markets, with a close eye on Elliott Wave count alternatives! And it might be worth going back and re-reading Merriman's weekly comments I posted earlier!

For now, let me say this - you can see by the ChartsEdge forecast for gold that it predicts gold going above last week's high. For one thing, gold hasn't always "obeyed" the ChartsEdge forecasts quite as well as equities have. For another, when you look at my discussion of gold I posted earlier today here, where you see me discussing the idea of Tony's wave 2 and the idea of a b-wave up within that 2nd wave if it did not complete yet - remember that a b-wave can always be an expanded flat, even in a 2nd wave. Finally, for all markets, I made a remark recently that the action can become choppier (maybe I wasn't wrong) - and if that becomes the case, then it is going to be more difficult for Elliott Wave analysts in both gold AND equities. At the moment, I think I just need to finish unpacking from my long trip during this past week. With the usual reminder to everyone - be careful out there in the markets!
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