Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Competing Elliott Wave interpretations of gold could keep us guessing for a while longer

There are competing Elliott Wave views of gold. One that's shown by Tony Caldaro as his primary count is that gold completed five waves up as a wave 1 from 681 to 1007, and that gold pulled back as all or part of wave 2. Another that I tend toward is that the 1007 level can be a (B) wave top and gold is starting on wave (C) downward. I would like to point out that gold can keep us guessing for a while, because the .618 retrace level back that often (not always, but often) happens with a wave 2 of the sort that would go with the more bullish count, could see GLD going to the $80.34 level. That would have gold going under the 850 level that we've previously seen as being an important pivot (and notice that GLD's 50-week moving average and 200-day moving average are about at that level). If GLD sinks to $80.35 and reverses upward, then it can retain the more bullish count. Conversely, of course, if it goes above $99 (with gold going above 1007 in dollar-denominated terms) that also tends to support the more bullish count on the theory that the wave 2 was already finished and it's in wave 3 up. Here's the GLD chart below (weekly bars):


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