Consider perspectives from the volatility index, Kondratieff and business confidence cycle, and Chartswatchers newsletter

Business confidence may improve and the markets may turn more positive, even if the equities markets experience that in a more gradual way than the huge rally many are hoping for. My VIX chart is showing that the volatility index did make a significant move down last week, even though the last two trading days pulled it up as equities declined. The Armstrong cycle as well as the Bradley model both suggest an improving climate during this time of 2009. Does it mean that we can expect a huge rally in equities? Can happen of course, but not necessarily. We might think instead in terms of less deflation. Maybe even a bit of inflation, if it's true that the Kondratieff wave may be set to turn - I mention this because Raymond Merriman's analogy of this time period to 1843 led me to look it up and see that a significant Kondratieff wave low bottomed in that year.



This also leads me to suggest readers check out a free "Chartwatchers" newsletter that Stockcharts.com is making available two times per month. I hadn't been aware of it before, but noticed it this weekend. There are some nice entries with charts and comments by John Murphy himself, Carl Swenlin, and others. These discuss the improving outlook for commodities, the financials, etc. You might like to check it out. The latest (March 21) edition of the free ChartWatchers newsletter is now available here. If you would like to receive the newsletter via email, sign up here. Below is a quick sample, a chart accompanying Richard Rhodes' comments yesterday in the current newsletter:


This works for me of course since I've been posting about oil and looking for some rally there, so I'll be delighted with this working out. It also suggests that the dollar may weaken more - and here I was thinking it could surprise by being in a leading diagonal, with gold ready to go into a big C-wave down! Well - candidly, I'd like to see for a bit .... It may well be that a stock market improvement, along with commodities including oil and gold, may not be ready for a huge movement yet. Personally I'm going to be very focused on what may happen in these markets once we get past the mid- to late April time frame. This current March time window that may be a significant 1.382 Fibonacci time extension is due to be followed by a 1.618 extension tine window in late May, and if that turns out to be a valid time cycle then I still don't know whether to think that might be an important high or an important low.

Just some quick comments for now!