Gold weakening, bonds testing chart support - will Fed action tip in favor of bonds?

Hmm, I'm trying to decide whether this type of article Is Gold Really the Safest Investment? at Time.com is a contrary or confirming indicator. At any rate a good reminder that gold did make new highs in 2009 when denominated in currencies such as the euro, British pound and Canadian dollar. That characteristic alone could help identify the (B) wave idea we've discussed, since a flat's (B) wave can be either slightly under (usually 90% retrace) or above (often up to 1.382 extension but can be more) the prior peak that it's helping to correct. Of course, that position as against the prior peak can also support the wave 1 up as Tony Caldaro's marking on his OEW gold chart. So if gold falls out of my uptrend channel, we'll have to see if that's merely the second leg down of a small abc to make Tony's wave 2, or a more bearish and much deeper wave (C). I believe that on the dollar-denominated chart, the level of 850 that's been a pivot before will continue to be important.

Then again there's that other point on traders' minds, as reviewed in this article Bonds wait to see if Fed's a buyer (Mar: 18 8:19am ET) at CNNMoney - "Treasurys tread water ahead of Federal Open Market Committee decision whether or not to buy up long-term government debt." While there's debate about whether China may slow its purchases and whether the Fed will buy (more) Treasury bonds, both bonds and gold are testing relative low points in terms of timing and in terms of price. For Treasuries, it's a matter of testing chart support as well as their timing cycle. For gold, the timing cycle for pushing higher seems to be waning if not closing and its weakness is certainly testing my near-term channel line.

We've got the Federal Open Market Committee meeting conclusion and announcements at 2:15 p.m. ET today. Of course if it does result in "news" don't forget, never trade the news! Only trade the reaction to the news. We've got the ChartsEdge forecast but also remember that its primary use is for cycle timing, not for trend and relative high/low. That's easy to forget after days when they work so well, as the past couple of days again. There's a tendency that you can see the extent to which the intraday bias corresponds to what the forecast shows, by mid- to late morning. It's possible that a major Fed announcement in the afternoon could alter that - my impression is that that did happen once, but then another time the action went right along with the forecast.

So as always - be careful out there, and happy trading!