Markets and charts roundup

The S&P 500 looks like it's well on its way to reaching the ~664 level - along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching toward 6427 - that's one of the Fibonacci levels we've identified for potential support. Even I thought this wave would take a big longer - just as I had thought the move down from January 6 would be a bit quicker. There's more than one Elliott Wave count that can take us there, and whichever one it is, I'm going to be curious to see whether there's any hint of a diagonal to help put some finality on a low. Not seeing that yet. Here are the monthly and weekly charts updated through today's close:



The TRIN did pop today but it's too early to say whether it supports a pullback or turn - it could do so, but looks a bit early for that:


The VIX pushed up its upper Bollinger Band and through one of my trendlines. That 50% retracement looks like it's a target, and I'm really thinking the 61.8% may be the right target, or the 66.46 level. Intraday, it did pull back a little and consolidate after it touched up to that trendline, but then acted inverse to equities of course, and pushed over the trendline. Given that it already bobbled about it intraday, I'm not convinced that it does a kissback to it over the next few days.


Denny, you were oh so right about Thursday sell - I think that, for me, it was more based off the ChartsEdge NDX weekly forecast last week, but your point about the CPCE was a good one. Here's your CPCE chart now. It has shot up, maybe not to a complete extreme but quite a movement in two trading days, so looking for a turn even in a pullback consolidation this week will be one idea:


The BKX as expected looks like a pullback in the last two trading days, fitting with the broad indices' drop. Big question for the banks now will be whether they can pull up from here, to look like a trend change pattern ... or not:


The Dow Transports have not had a single day that goes above the prior day's high, since dropping under the long-term potential Fibonacci support level of the .786 retrace marked on my monthly chart. It is still possible for a deeper Fibonacci retrace level to support a type of bullish scenario, but I don't want to get excited until it can strengthen:


And it says a lot about the US Treasuries that all this equities weakness can hardly get a heart-beat going in bonds. Maybe there's still a C-wave up, I'm not ruling out that scenario. But today just didn't look as encouraging as one might have expected: