Folks, as I started to read these comments while posting, I remembered that Raymond Merriman had indeed predicted wild swings related to the Fed/interest rate related announcements - so chalk up another for his foresight! Here are his public comments for the upcoming week (and as always you can see his website in the "other sites of interest" listed at the right side of this page for more information on his services):
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Comments for the Week Beginning March 23, 2009
Written by Raymond Merriman
Review and Preview
The “Sagittarius Factor” of last Monday through Wednesday corresponded with huge price swings in many financial and commodity markets, most notably Treasuries, currencies, and precious metals. Gold, for instance, was trading at 882 on Wednesday, its lowest level since January. By early Friday, it was up to 967.80, an appreciation of 10% in less than 48 hours. Silver’s move was even more spectacular, as it fell to 1189 the same day, also its lowest level since January. At the close of trading on Friday, it was up to 1384, a gain of 16.4%. But if you are a currency trader, you had to be stunned by the surge in the Euro currency and Swiss Franc against the U.S. Dollar. Since its low of 1.2455 on March 4, the Euro currency soared to 1.3737 on March 19 (last Thursday). The Swiss Franc surged from a low of .8356 against the U.S. Dollar on March 12 to a high of .8980 just one week later. These are huge movements for currencies. Similar moves were noted in the longer-term Treasuries and Notes. Grains and Crude Oil also enjoyed healthy price increases last week, with Crude trading above 52.00 for the first time since November. This fits with last week’s report, which stated, “For this coming week, the most notable celestial event we take interest in is the “Sagittarius Factor” of Monday-Wednesday. It oftentimes coincides with very sharp price movements – and reversals – in many financial markets, but especially in precious metals, currencies, and Treasuries.” Yet the amplitude of these moves was even more impressive than expected, for reasons discussed below.
Equity markets were not quite as exciting. The rallies which started from the lows of March 6-10 (as Venus turned retrograde) continued into last week. After rising 10-20% in that brief amount of time, many of these indices started pulling back as the week wore on. In the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, the low of March 6 at 6470 stalled out last Wednesday, March 18, at 7571. That represents an impressive gain of 1100 points and 17% in just 8 trading days. But by Friday, it had given back 300 of those points. We now wait for next week to see if this will be just a “normal” corrective decline in a new bull market, or the resumption of the bear market.
Short-Term Geocosmics
We are out of the dream-like, surreal, period of Pisces. It’s officially springtime now. As discussed a few weeks ago, this new season may come in with a bang. After all, the first non-lunar aspect made as we begin spring will be the Sun square Pluto on Monday, March 23. This will also end the “translation” of the Sun to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto developing T-square, which was in force March 8-23. Once again, this translation wasn’t as bad for stocks as was the case in 2008. If fact, equities have been mostly higher during this period. The question is: will they continue to rally? Or will they reverse sharply down now that the “translation” is ending?
The answer may be influenced by Venus retrograde, which is also in effect now. In fact, it lasts much longer, since it started March 6 and doesn’t end until April 17. It is not unusual to see a market making a multi-month high or low nearby to Venus turning retrograde, and then reverse in the opposite direction until the time its motion returns direct. If the Venus retrograde is more powerful than the Sun’s translation to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square, then the market should continue its rally for a few more weeks before taking out the low of March 6-10. If not, we may see the bear market resuming. With Pluto in the picture as the spring equinox begins, the focus is once again on debt, for Pluto rules debt, death, and taxes. The aspects that are present at the time of seasonal change tend to describe themes that are most highlighted for the whole of that season. This week is not only the start of the new season, but also a new moon, which will form the same square to Pluto. Spring is supposed to be the season of romance and love, and bright new hopes for the future. But with Pluto so prominent, it may be more like “tough love.” Such a geocosmic set up can be prone to serious power plays in which there is little mercy for the weak. This is not a time when the “weak shall inherit the earth.” What they inherit may be more debt, and more demands to pay up (like the AIG executives who received those bonuses). They are more prone to be forced into foreclosure or bankruptcy, and sudden changes of life style they didn’t plan for.
Longer-Term Thoughts
The Venus retrograde effect was in full force last week. Not only did the stock market continue its rise from March 6, but the Central Banks did indeed announce new policies that had a direct impact on all interest-rate related markets (i.e. Treasuries and currencies). This is what generally happens during Venus retrograde - central banks make new policies or change old ones, and markets react with great volatility and large price swings. One week ago, the Swiss Central Bank lowered its key interest rate, and the Swiss Franc fell to a new three-month low against the U.S. Dollar (the Euro currency did not, for a case of intermarket bullish divergence). Then this past Wednesday, March 18, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a plan to purchase $300 Billion in Treasuries, which forced the long-term bond rate to levels not seen in decades. The 10-year Treasury Notes dropped from 3+% to 2.53% and 30-year mortgage rates fell to 4.75%. At the same time, the value of the U.S. Dollar plummeted, as other currencies surged up against it. The Fed is printing money with a zeal seldom – if ever – seen before. In all, the Fed will stimulate the economy to the tune of over $1 trillion more, on top of the White House’s massive multi-trillion spending programs already launched in the past few weeks.
Yes, they are serious about getting this economy back on strong footing. But they also risk the dark side of the forthcoming Jupiter-Neptune conjunction, which is inflation. You may remember last summer the Federal deficit was projected to be $500 billion this year. Then it was raised to $800 billion towards the end of last year, and then $1.2 trillion early this year. This week, it is now estimated to rise to $1.8 trillion. This phenomenon where the budget deficit “…will rise much greater than anyone expects” was discussed in detail in the year’s Forecast 2009 Book, along with the likely ramifications.
Jupiter and Neptune are in Aquarius, and Uranus is in Pisces, creating a very rare astrological phenomenon known as a mutual reception. It has only happened twice in the past 3000 years, the last time being 1843. With Jupiter and Neptune together (May-July 2009 is the strongest part of this aspect), the dynamics tend to be inflationary. But with Uranus involved, the risk is not a “gradual” return to inflation, but a Uranian “sudden and unexpected dramatic” return.
Is there really a risk here? Chairman Bernanke recently said there is no risk of inflation in the foreseeable future. But remember: he has the Sun-Jupiter opposition natally at 21 Sagittarius-Gemini. Transiting Uranus is hovering around 21 degrees of Pisces, in T-square to his Sun-Jupiter opposition, and all in mutable signs. This is not a signature usually related to accurate forecasting skills, or good judgment. The risk is over-estimating (or grossly under-estimating) the effect of one’s actions. That is why transiting Uranus in hard aspect to natal Jupiter is one of the classical bankruptcy aspects in astrology. It is not that one cannot make money during these times, for often one makes a lot of money. But when and how these individuals choose to spend or invest (or speculate) their money oftentimes involves a risk that is far more serious than they thought, and it results in larger losses than expected. In this case, the decision could quite easily result in a sudden increase in inflation that was not foreseen, with the next result requiring a sudden jump in interest rates that thwarts the economic recovery.
In terms of time, this all looks good right now, and maybe it will last through the summer. But sometime after August, as we come into orb of the Saturn-Pluto waning square, there may be a consequence to pay for all this money being printed, and all this debt being accrued, not to mention the shift of policy by the Fed to risk losing its independence by purchasing such a huge sum of U.S. Treasuries (i.e. U.S. debt). It is now in league with the government itself. Everybody worries about the U.S. government nationalizing the banks and private companies. Maybe the Fed is on the verge of privatizing the U.S. government.
Announcements
The monthly MMA Cycles and MMA Japanese Cycles Reports will be issued this week, Monday and Tuesday, to subscribers of those reports. The “MMA Cycles Report” is our market advisory report for traders of the U.S. stock indices, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Euro, Swiss Franc, Grains, and Crude Oil. It will come out Monday night. The “MMA Japan Cycles Report” covers the Nikkei, Dollar/Yen, and JGB Bonds. It will be released Tuesday night. For more information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/comments-for-the-week-beginning-march-23,-2009/services/.
I will be giving a special one day intensive for subscribers to any of the MMA reports on Saturday, April 18, 11:00 AM – 4:00 PM, the day after Venus turns direct. Venus turning retrograde or direct has a very high correlation to the end and beginning of powerful cycles in many financial, markets. We want to be aware of which markets may be making cyclical tops or bottoms at this time, for they will be the most likely candidates for exceptional trading opportunities. Attendees can spend an afternoon and ask all the questions they wish about how I analyze a market, and why I forecast what I forecast in the various reports. If you have never been to one of these intensives with other MMA subscribers, you are in for a treat. Many participants share their view of markets and the economy as well, which provide very stimulating discussions. This one-day intensive is free to any daily or weekly subscriber of MMA Reports, or to any yearly subscriber of the SOS or MMA Cycles report. For all others, the cost is $300.00 (but it is best if you become a subscriber at less than this amount, know the language of the reports, and then get in for free). The location will be the beautiful Asilomar Retreat Center on California’s Monterey Peninsula. For more information, contact our office at 1-248-626-3034, or by email at ordersmma@msn.com, and we will give you details as to the location and accommodations. Or http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/comments-for-the-week-beginning-march-23,-2009/articles/articles/special-one%11day-discussion-for-subscribers/.
We are also going to have another webcast for the world, a “Virtual On-line Discussion and Market Update with Raymond Merriman!” This “Webcast for the World” will take place on Saturday, May 2, 2009, just before the first of the three Jupiter-Neptune conjunction passages. Starting time will be 12:00 PM EDT (that’s 5:00 PM, GMT, or 9:00 AM, in Los Angeles). Via the modern technology of Vibation, Inc, this “latest update” discussion on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks), can be heard and seen in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You will be able to be part of the live broadcast, with a live audience, and with the latest charts visible on your computer screen that will be the focus of this presentation. You can ask questions directly to the speaker (Merriman) during this presentation. You can see and hear the other questions being asked by those in the audience too. You will be given log-in instructions upon receipt of your reservation for this event. This webcast will analyze the stock market, Gold and Silver, currencies, grains, T-Notes, and Crude Oil. It is a webcast you won’t want to miss if you are a trader or investor in any of these markets. The cost for this private discussion is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this on line event, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/comments-for-the-week-beginning-march-23,-2009/virtual/ to register. Or drop us an email at ordersmma@msn.com or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034, and we will email instructions and pin number on how to participate. If you wish to be in the audience of this live presentation, taking place in Troy, Michigan, let us know and we will send you directions to the location.
For those interested in learning or improving your understanding of astrology, please note that a fantastic conference in Astrology is going to take place August 19-24, 2009, at the luxurious Oakbrook Hills Marriot Resort, just outside of Chicago (not far from O’Hare Airport). This will be the ISAR (International Society for Astrological Research) 2009 conference, featuring over 80 professional astrologers form all over the world, including Jeff Jawer, Rick Levine, Michael Lutin, Claude Weiss, Nick Campion, Verena Bachmann, and several Financial Astrologers, including myself. There will be a whole track on Financial Astrology, and I will be giving a one-day workshop on Financial Astrology the day after the main conference. For more information, and registration, please go to http://www.isar2009.com/. For those who golf, note that this resort has one of the most impressive golf courses on the PGA tour. Golf where the pros golf, and learn astrology from some of the best astrologers in the world, all at the same time!
If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/comments-for-the-week-beginning-march-23,-2009/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report. I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”
You can now order the Forecast 2009 book in four languages! It is available in Japanese at http://www.toushinippou.co.jp/, in German at http://www.mma-europe.ch/ and http://www.mma-europe.de/, and in Spanish via http://www.mmacycles-spanish.com/. In Serbian, you can order a PDF file of the book at http://www.mma-balkan.com/. In English, you can order directly from us, via our web site, or you can order from http://www.markettiming.nl/ in Netherlands, http://www.astrodata.com/ in Zurich, and Earlthorn Ltd in Hong Kong at http://www.earlthorn.com/ or by email at earlthorn2000@yahoo.com. In Melbourne, Australia, you may order the Forecast 2009 book at http://www.educatedinvestor.com.au/, or by email at investorbooks@iprimus.com.
Our new 2009 MMA catalogue is now out! If you are interested in receiving this catalogue, you can download it directly from our website at http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/comments-for-the-week-beginning-march-23,-2009/freedownload/. A list of all our products and services and software programs is included therein.
The German version of “Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics” is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site at http://www.mma-europe.ch/.
We have added a valuable new feature to our web site. Now, on the very front page, you can get a daily update on the weighted values of the Solar-Lunar cycles for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Silver market, via the studies conducted in “The Ultimate Book on Sock Market Timing Vol 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Trading Cycles,” and “The Sun, Moon and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader.” These are the studies I use personally for short-term trading of stock index futures, ETFs (like DIA and Silver fund), and Silver futures. Anything over 100 means it has an above-average correlation to reversing from an isolated high or low if it forms that day. The higher the value, the more probable the reversal. To see these daily values, please go to http://www.blogger.com/, and just check it out on the top of the page.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
Copyright MMACycles 2007-2009; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).
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