Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Oil may be attractive again for hardy traders with stop-loss rules

The oil ETF that I track, USO, tested down to the bottom of a small uptrend channel that I showed recently in connection with a potential "kissback" target that's higher, on the monthly long-term chart. This also places USO at potential support from its 50-day moving average, which can be in position to start inclining once again. A move up would also be consistent with the RSI indicators that show a test back to the midline, and the OBV remaining above its 30-day moving average. Now remember, we're just thinking in terms of Fibonacci retrace targets as indicated on my chart (below), also consistent with potential goals involving that long-term channel kissback and perhaps the 200-day moving average. But if oil needs a deeper correction instead, then it will move under today's low as well as the support levels. So these considerations are for those who don't mind considering it a swing trade rather than a long-term investment, and who also will use stop-loss protection to avoid being stuck in case USO moves to lower levels.
Here's my daily USO chart:

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