Overview of the markets in the S&P 500, gold, dollar, euro, yen, bonds and oil charts

Here's a collection of charts for the markets we mainly watch. In the S&P 500, if we proceed higher from here and especially if we get above 838, then I've got two primary Elliott Wave ideas. One being that we completed "the lows" and the other being that we are in a large upward C-wave of an expanded flat 4th wave that may reach to the 200-day moving average. Sure there can be other alternatives but let's see first whether or not we get a reversal in this area. I've been looking at significance of a number about 805/806 but I see that we actually did not get overlap (yet) of 804 (for some reason I was thinking the low of that January drop was about 801). Well at any rate you get the idea, let's see what kind of reaction we get at the resistance levels that SPX is running into here.

Whew, the dollar looks like it didn't want my 91 level! Interestingly it didn't fall under chart support ... yet ... I saw that Tony Caldaro marks the dollar as downtrending now, which fits with his counting of gold as uptrending. If that's right then both should confirm soon enough.

On the $GOLD chart you don't see that rise of this afternoon, but it does show on the GLD chart (both are below). Gold had started by falling under my channel trendline and then popped back above it. Looks like it may have gone back up to that pivot level marked by horizontal blue line on my $GOLD chart. One way to count gold would be that it's starting wave 3 up on Tony's chart. Another is that this is a wave b up as part of wave 2 on Tony's chart, with a wave c down to complete the second wave before resuming uptrend in wave 3. Still another would be a bearish count, that this is all or part of a wave 2 upward before gold turns back down again in wave 3 of a (C) wave in the EW flat idea I've been discussing here.

So this is what it took to get $XJY moving upward! It gets me back to thinking of new highs as discussed on my monthly chart ... If that's right, then I cannot see any reason for it to fall under its 200-day moving average, so that is one place for stop-loss protection if speculating long $XJY on a swing basis.

And the euro woke up too! It is below its 200-day moving average and that almost forms a trendline - above that level would help confirm a bullish view, which the indicators are already looking like. I don't have a complacent feeling about it but I think that goes along with the comments I've made above about the dollar and gold.

Ten million shares of TLT at $104 makes $1040 million dollars and there's a joke there but I'm too tired to make it. With buying volume like that, the OBV should improve (at least it still looks good on the monthly chart, also shown below). So is it a B wave or second wave up from a leading diagonal, or something more bullish? I'm tilting that it's more bullish - will see. Also, a friend asked me about corporate bonds recently - I delayed answering because I had a feeling the charts like LQD and HYG would improve, and sure enough they have. I'm not posting those yet because I want to do some better analysis, but I think that my friend has some time to hold onto those longer for a while so I'm not in a hurry to do it right now, it should be able to wait a few days at least.

USO - still didn't make $30 today - what can I say? I haven't given up but it's a slow ride. Merriman suggested oil could also drop to a new low so that's worrisome. I'll be just as happy if oil can continue to make progress and not force me to decide exactly what levels to use for stop loss! At least the combination of OBV and Slow Stoch looks helpful.

And the TRIN - we'll have to think of when we start using it for buying dips rather than selling rallies! (You may do differently if you're scalping counter-trend of course, and also depending on your trading vehicles/time frames.) Anyway, it does look extended similar to the other indicators charts I included with the charts roundup. Its longer-term moving averages are tilting down which is consistent with what we've seen in the McClellan and other charts, that the market internals have been improving. It got far away from those MA's yesterday, and today poked lower then closed slightly higher, so it's another reason to consider the market overbought at the moment.