Perspective on where the markets are today

Here's TLT, the US Treasury bond ETF - has been languishing, or consolidating depending on your point of view - moved up well at the end of day today:


Here's my monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As Art Cashin also noted this morning on CNBC, yes we did see a 62% retrace that normally is significant, but that doesn't mean in and of itself that we got to "the bottom" or that a rally currently is the one that takes us beyond the reach of lower lows. For that matter - exactly which 62% retrace level? The one I marked points to 6427, which we did not quite get to. Perhaps it's a rounding error of my own, but I'd like to see other things confirming a trend reversal, including a classic trend reversal pattern which clearly hasn't happened yet. For that matter, check out Richard Russell: Technical Signal Re-confirms Bear (GreenLightAdvisor Views, 3/5/09) which talks about the 7470 level in the industrials - based on that, one way to help turn the markets positive would be to see whether the industrials can mount back above that key level. And - wouldn't you agree with me that you'd like to see the indicators look more positive? The way they moved more positive back at the 2002/2003 lows? Here's the chart:


And here's my monthly chart of the S&P 500 - ditto, ditto! In fact, if the trendlines I marked on here a few months ago prove useful - and they haven't been too bad so far - they paint a sobering picture of where we're headed:


Here's a look at the chart with daily bars for the SPX. Hmmm, maybe that efforts I made weeks ago, my amateur effort at a low-low-high-high, was close enough, just off by a couple of trading days ... Anyway, the new trendlines I added just for this post might prove useful, and the indicators are not telling a bullish story. Doesn't mean that couldn't change of course, and the indicators turn more positive - it just hasn't happened yet:


As for my chart of SPX with weekly bars, here's how it is looking now. I would not mind seeing a poke down to the lower trendline on it. One of my trading buddies, Denny, has pointed out to me that a 5=1 measurement would be to 657. While I don't know specifically what's measured for that calculation, I can guess. Anyway, maybe 657 would touch that lower trendline if it happened soon - so I'll be glad to look for that level. Also, while there is positive divergence in the RSI and StochRSI (standard), this chart shares with the daily (and monthly) charts the fact that the indicators as a whole are not telling a bullish story (not yet!!). Here's the chart:


So, while I am as happy as anyone to see this trading bounce, I cannot assume it to be anything more than that.