Yen for sale? and if so, will it work to bring the yen down?

Japan is hoping that its third stimulus package will work, possibly putting the yen "on sale." And the yen chart as shown by FXY seems to be reacting. I had been thinking the chart showed upside potential to new highs, as I've posted several times here. But that may not happen, or even if it does, FXY could go substantially lower first. I'd calculated one target at $83 on the $XJY chart which would be about where FXY would also go, if it loses this trading range and the 200-day moving average. I don't want to pre-judge whether or not it loses the trading range, or goes higher instead. The indicators seem ready to go either way. The standard RSI shows bullish divergence, the MACD might be doing a bull kiss, and the StochRSI may be doing a nice midline test that will push it up again. But the OBV confirms the weakness we're seeing as it tests the 200-day moving average, with the Slow Stochastics under 20; and its price level is almost poking under the most recent prior swing low. While I would not hold it short if it wants to push upward from this trading range, I would not hold it long if it breaks to the downside. Here's the chart:

I don't know that I can advocate shorting FXY before it proves that it's breaking chart support. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it might be finishing a pullback (although it's an extremely and unusually deep one, but that can happen off a leading diagonal which might have been playing out the past month). Or if it pokes a bit lower, theoretically it need only a very small poke lower to complete a small fifth wave. But it might be more bearish and wanting a deep third wave down if it already completed a bit leading diagonal down off the top. Maybe the best advice for now is to paraphrase something that Raymond Merriman once said, "if wrong - don't be wrong for long!"


Footnote: The CBOE-based "max pain" data showing currently may indicate that many other traders are thinking the same, to follow out of the trading range, which could indicate a straddle approach for those interested in those types of strategies. (Not a recommendation, just an observation.)