Critical price 884 in S&P 500, and critical time soon or end of May in currencies and gold

The price of 844 in the S&P 500 will be a critical level to watch. If you like the bull and bear fighting analogy, this will be a battleground level. If the bears win it, then the victory may be only temporary, because we may or may not see a new low before the market goes up again. However, if the bulls win it, then I'm thinking the bulls will have it for a while longer. Just my best assessment taking into consideration as much as I can possibly calculate from everything I'm seeing. One of those being another potential TCZ or reversal probability zone in the range of SPX 838-885, so a reversal pattern that appears within this zone could be quite bearish - we just cannot count on that yet. Also, I cannot emphasize enough the importance not only of the mid- to late April time frame, but also the late May time frame. Late May is looking critical for a number of reasons and in a number of markets. If the equity markets so happen to be declining into late May, it should provide a substantial reversal probability time zone. Conversely, if they are rising into that time frame, it is my believe that there might be a reversal to the downside in that time - although I am less certain of that. What I can tell you is that late May is likely to be a very important time in gold and currencies also.

Below are my charts for the dollar and gold. The monthly and then daily chart for the dollar, showing the possibility of a diagonal structure that leads higher. If this is true, then the dollar may reach a high point into late May, with a very sharp reversal downward (and I mean sharp! so IF it shapes up this way into late May, I cannot recommend being long the dollar at that point - if something changes of course I will describe it at that time). I haven't included my chart of the yen, but the point there would be, if the dollar rises into late May then the yen may perhaps fall conversely; with a reversal when the dollar also reverses. For that matter, the euro may run inverse to the dollar during all this, although there are some possibilities that the euro has a path of its own.

The weekly and then daily charts for gold show the best of my assessment, that we are pulling back in either a wave 2 retracement (a Fibonacci fractional retracement to 681 or so; such as the 50% or 62% retrace - maybe testing to or under 844, although I still like the 850 level as a pivot); or alternatively, diving deeper in a wave (C) that goes under 681. It is quite possible (but not absolutely necessary) that the time frame for a potential low target for gold would correspond inversely with the path of the dollar into late May.

If gold does fall under 850, then there would be two ways of looking for a buying point. One would be a rise back above 850, the other would be sizing up the Elliott Wave pattern and the technical indicators. We'll do our best to keep up with both.